RE: My Hive Pledge and some simple math

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Interesting post! If I start earning more from my side projects I’m going to invest more than $200 a month :) Can I ask you how do you see the future of HIVE. For example in what price you will send all your tokens ?! And also how you grow your account that much :)

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Thanks for your comment and your questions.

I think there are mainly 2 rather extreme ways for Hive (with little in between):

  • the price could fall leading to users abandon this project leading to the price crashing to zero or
  • the price finds a bottom (say 0.20 $). This would mean that there are enough die-hard-Hiveans buying the continuous inflation. Users can be incentivized by their rewards and continue to post. At the same time new users steadily come to Hive (informed by their friends or a marketing campaign). These new users add new content to the network (hopefully users with good content and already many followers on other networks like Facebook, twitter, insta, tiktok). Plus, potentially these new users are interested in buying a little stake of Hive tokens to take an active role in our ecosystem (e.g. as curator). This buying would increase the Hive price. So a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle could start: more users --> more content, more buying of Hive --> higher Hive price --> more incentive for new users to join and add content --> ... --> at a certain point a bubble would occur (as in January 2018) leading to a price crash and to a disappearing of many users. After this correction a new cycle could begin.

If the second way happens, I think there would come a tipping point (e.g. at 10 million users or a Hive price of 15 $), by which most content from legacy media (centralized like Facebook etc.) would move to new platforms running on Hive, mostly because of the direct monetization of content, and because of uncensorability. I'll write a post on this.

I grew this account by continuously buying some Steem for over 2 years (partially I bought them from a friend and partially at a price of 0.12 $). And at the moment of the hard fork (Steem --> Hive) I had around 40'000 Steems. Shortly after the hard fork I began selling my Steems for Hive (I wrote about it 3 months ago). Then the price of Steem was higher than Hive. So I could more than double my stake of Hive thanks to the hard fork 😉

What do you mean by "For example in what price you will send all your tokens"?

  • Do you mean when I will sell? If the price would soar above the old All Time High (around 7 $) I would try to sell about 20-30% of my stake because I don't consider this price to be realistic as long as we have less than 250'000 daily active users. But of course, I would buy back later (if the price gets more realistic 🙂).
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