My Hive Pledge and some simple math

in #deutschlast year (edited)

My pledge: After I will have exchanged my last Steems for Hive (2 weeks from now), I will continue to stack around 200 USD worth of Hive each month.

Assuming we have a yearly inflation of 26.2 million Hive and a stable demand for Hive (only inflation from rewards and interest, nobody else sells), how much money is necessary to stabilize Hive at the current price (0.25 USD)? 26.2 million * 0.25 USD = 6.55 million USD (per year).
I.e. each month 545’833 USD have to flow into Hive in order to stabilize the price.

So, only 2‘729 people (545’833/200) have to act like me and we‘ll stop any downtrend (still assuming all bought Hive are held and only the rewards and interest (= Hive inflation) are sold). Or 5‘458 people buy Hive for 100 USD a month.
I think that‘s totally doable.

Who wants to join doing a pledge? 🚀

Source: https://peakd.com/steem-inflation/@fyrstikken/what-is-the-inflation-rate-of-steem-here-is-the-supply-table-for-the-next-20-years

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Nachdem ich meine letzten Steems gegen Hive ausgetauscht habe (in 2 Wochen), werde ich weiterhin jeden Monat Hive im Wert von rund 200 USD kaufen.

Angenommen wir haben eine jährliche Inflation von 26,2 Millionen Hive und eine stabile Nachfrage nach Hive (nur Inflation aus Rewards und Zinsen, niemand sonst verkauft), wie viel Geld ist erforderlich, um Hive auf dem aktuellen Preis (0,25 USD) zu stabilisieren? 26,2 Mio. USD * 0,25 USD = 6,55 Mio. USD (pro Jahr).
Das heißt jeden Monat müssen 545'833 USD in Hive fließen, um den Preis zu stabilisieren.

Es müssen also nur 2'729 Personen (545'833 / 200) wie ich handeln, und wir werden einen Abwärtstrend stoppen (wieder vorausgesetzt, alle gekauften Hive werden gehalten und nur die Rewards und Zinsen (= Hive-Inflation) werden verkauft). Oder 5'458 Leute kaufen Hive für 100 USD pro Monat (oder 10'916 Leute kaufen für 50 USD...).
Ich denke, das ist absolut machbar.

Wer möchte ein ähnliches "Gelöbnis" abgeben? 🚀

Quelle: https://peakd.com/steem-inflation/@fyrstikken/what-is-the-inflation-rate-of-steem-here-is-the-supply-table-for-the-next-20-years

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Sehr interessante Rechnung, woher hast du die Zahl von 26,2 Mio Hive an Inflation pro Jahr?

Aus dem Link im Post. Gehe davon aus, dieser Wert von Steem gilt auch für Hive... Stimmt das?

ja das denke ich auch!

Liebe Grüße Michael

!invest_vote
!jeenger

Schön das du hive kauft ich werde jeden Monat 50% meiner rewards von steem und hive verkaufen und in shitcoin auf bittrex tauschen 😇

Ja, dafür sind die Rewards auch gedacht, finde ich 😀.
Aber die gekauften Hive sehe ich als langfristige Investments und nicht zur Spekulation.

I am joining the pledge... 😅

interessante Rechnung. Ich denke das bekommen wir locker hin. 🙂

How do you change your Steem for Hive with BlockTrades that are not supporting Steem any longer??

I do it via Hive Engine: https://hive-engine.com/

From your steemitwallet.com page, transfer STEEM to @graphene-swap
with this memo:
SWAP.STEEM rynow

After logging into hive-engine.com, within a few minutes you’ll have 99 SWAP.STEEM for every 100 STEEM sent. This can be sold for SWAP.HIVE that can be withdrawn to your Hive wallet.

Try it first with a tiny transfer of 1 STEEM to get comfortable with the process.

Thank you, for the advice!!

Interesting post! If I start earning more from my side projects I’m going to invest more than $200 a month :) Can I ask you how do you see the future of HIVE. For example in what price you will send all your tokens ?! And also how you grow your account that much :)

Thanks for your comment and your questions.

I think there are mainly 2 rather extreme ways for Hive (with little in between):

  • the price could fall leading to users abandon this project leading to the price crashing to zero or
  • the price finds a bottom (say 0.20 $). This would mean that there are enough die-hard-Hiveans buying the continuous inflation. Users can be incentivized by their rewards and continue to post. At the same time new users steadily come to Hive (informed by their friends or a marketing campaign). These new users add new content to the network (hopefully users with good content and already many followers on other networks like Facebook, twitter, insta, tiktok). Plus, potentially these new users are interested in buying a little stake of Hive tokens to take an active role in our ecosystem (e.g. as curator). This buying would increase the Hive price. So a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle could start: more users --> more content, more buying of Hive --> higher Hive price --> more incentive for new users to join and add content --> ... --> at a certain point a bubble would occur (as in January 2018) leading to a price crash and to a disappearing of many users. After this correction a new cycle could begin.

If the second way happens, I think there would come a tipping point (e.g. at 10 million users or a Hive price of 15 $), by which most content from legacy media (centralized like Facebook etc.) would move to new platforms running on Hive, mostly because of the direct monetization of content, and because of uncensorability. I'll write a post on this.

I grew this account by continuously buying some Steem for over 2 years (partially I bought them from a friend and partially at a price of 0.12 $). And at the moment of the hard fork (Steem --> Hive) I had around 40'000 Steems. Shortly after the hard fork I began selling my Steems for Hive (I wrote about it 3 months ago). Then the price of Steem was higher than Hive. So I could more than double my stake of Hive thanks to the hard fork 😉

What do you mean by "For example in what price you will send all your tokens"?

  • Do you mean when I will sell? If the price would soar above the old All Time High (around 7 $) I would try to sell about 20-30% of my stake because I don't consider this price to be realistic as long as we have less than 250'000 daily active users. But of course, I would buy back later (if the price gets more realistic 🙂).

Bin dabei!

Great insight and the economics look right. We just need to expand the users to attract more accounts which power up and trade HIVE.

Sehr interessanter Ansatz. Ich für meinen Teil werde nur meine Steem in Hive investieren. Bis dieser Prozess abgeschlossen ist, werde ich weiterhin versuchen mit meinen Beiträgen die Aufmerksamkeit gleichgesinnter zu gewinnen. Das Wichtigste ist dass wir mit aktiven Mitglieder und qualitativ gutem Content weiter wachsen. Der wahre Wert dieser Blockchain sind unsere Beiträge. Also sollten wir uns gemeinsam um die zarten Pflänzchen, das Plankton und die Fische kümmern. Wir müssen ihnen Aufmerksamkeit schenken und konsequent gute Beiträge unterstützen. Die Besten unter ihnen werden es danken, in dem sie auch Geld anfassen und in Hive investieren, weil sie von dem Mehrwert überzeugt sind.

Volle Zustimmung.
Und mit etwas Investment steigt der Preis und wir können neue Mitglieder inzentivieren hier aktiv zu werden.

That’s quite the pledge! Is hive the only coin you are stacking or are their others too?

Only BTC and Hive

Do you also dollar cost average into BTC a the same $200? That's what I am doing

As I see BTC as my "savings instrument" and Hive as my "higher-risk investment", I monthly allocate a bit more to BTC (dollar cost averaging) than to Hive (but I don't want to disclose concrete numbers for BTC 😉)

LOL for sure, that I also keep quiet, happy to talk about my shit coins though.

Ah, I just scrolled through the top 100 cryptos, and found STX, a shitcoin I still own but which a friend bought and still holds for me. I find the idea of blockstack compelling and the founder team authentic. I don‘t get the reason why, exactly, the STX token should accrue value. I‘d prefer stocks of the company 😉

Never heard of that one, I just checked it out, that's also my question on many crypto projects some coins aren't even utility coins and its not even equity as an STO either so what was the point of the token

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