Ever since the Glint Shop/Rewards has been introduced, I haven't spent much on my glint since most of my soulbound Chaos Legion reward cards have reached enough level appropriate for Gold League (i.e. level 6 Rare summoners). I thought of just harvesting glint in preparation for the new Rebellion soulbound rewards. I did spend 1M Glint to get this title:

Not bad since it gives +10% bonus on land production. Current price in the market is ~25$.

Now that the new Rebellion cards have arrived, it's time to think about how I should spend my glint.

There are currently 2 options to get these new reward cards:
1.) Rarity Draws - it's just like purchasing cards directly based on rarity. Still a random card draw though.

2.) Loot Chests - the more traditional and fun way. Card pulls is not guaranteed since you might get others like energy, merits, or potions.

As these reward cards have been recently refreshed, my goal is to get as much cards as possible and level it up. This is where my question started.

Rarity Draw vs. Loot Chest?

Let's do some math, shall we?

First is to get info on the probabilities:

Though the new soulbound cards don't have market value yet, we can refer to the Rarity Draw prices. Assuming gold foil cards are 15x the value of regular cards, and just taking the maximum multiplier, we can compute for the Expected Value of each chest. ChatGPT has been very helpful to compute this for me.

Here is a sample computation for Ultimate Chest. You can do the same for Major and Minor by simply just substituting the corresponding probabilities and card costs.

Expected Values:

Ultimate Chest: 47,707.4 Glint
Major Chest: 15,578.5 Glint
Minor Chest: 2,733 Glint

Cost Ratio

Interestingly, you get more value per glint if you spend it on Major Chests. This is already considering you get maximum multiplier effect and 50% chance of getting gold foils just to simplify the formula. It actually makes sense since the cost of an Ultimate Chest is 4.5x than a Major chest and yet it doesn't save you from getting the less desirable potions (26% chance). Minor chests even have higher EV since it's cheap that you can get more chests; hence, higher chance of cards. Chest prices increases though after a certain limit (e.g. 150 for Major chests), but it resets after each season.

Probably once I get enough reward cards, then I can gradually shift to just availing rarity draws as I eventually would want to complete targeted cards.

How about you, what's your Glint Spending Strategy?

Note: The assumptions above were simplistic. Will share on the next post on an updated computation of the cost per value considering additional parameters that were missed. Eventually, this would show that Rarity Draws are better.