Difference Between Evidence Based and Authoritative Statements

I am upset with the video below. The video starts with a Dr. John Campbell who chastises people on the Internet for discussing their pet theories about immunity.

Dr Campbell then gives us a lecture on how we should restrict ourselves to evidence based sources.

The good doctor then does something very strange: He starts reading web pages from the public health service.

The doctor has confused authoritative sources with evidence based sources.

We hope that authorities based their decisions on evidence. But authorities have been known to cave to political pressures.

The doctor made a fundamental error in the presentation. Authorities are subject to political concerns. There is, unfortunately, a gap between the authoritative sources and evidence-based sources.

The spread of COVID19 provides a great example of how information works. The general public and health authorities received news of the outbreak at roughly the same time.

The Novel Coronavirus is new. That meant both individuals and the government had to make rash decisions based on sparse information.

Mathematicians published mathematical models based on the sparse information received from China.

The mathematical models are, by their very nature, based on speculation.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with speculation. For that matter, speculation is a fundamental element of good science. Science works by putting forward mathematical models. Scientists then test and hone the models.

So, there was a period in which all of the discussion both in the halls of power and on social media, where the talk about the pandemic was all speculative.

There is nothing wrong with speculation. Dullards, like Doctor Campbell, who put people down for speculation are as doltish as the people they put down.

All of the therapies in the first stage of the outbreak would be based on speculation.

For example, hospitals used ventilators for respiratory illnesses; so ventilators were considered among the first lines of defense.

Some doctors reported success in treating diseases similar to Covid19 with hydroxychloroquine. The first trials with the drug produced anecdotal evidence which, for a novel virus, is good enough to warrant additional tests.

I had been following studies about the various effects on Vitamin D and Vitamin K for the last few years. Vitamin D in conjunction with Vitamin K1 and K2 appears to play a regulatory role in bone health and blood thickness. The vitamin also plays important roles in the immune system.

People with strong immune systems seem to weather COVID19 better than those with weak immune systems.

That statement is obvious.

What I have learned is that Vitamin D is very much about balance. A good balance of Vitamin D, Vitamin K and Calcium leads to good bone health. A good balance of Vitamin D, Vitamin K and minerals regulates blood clotting. If your blood is too thin, you will bleed out when cut. If it is too thick, you will have strokes.

Vitamin D undergoes transformations in the kidney. It also undergoes transformation when skin is exposed to direct sunlight.

It is a vitamin that helps regulate important parts of our metabolism.

Sadly, because of this it is extremely easy to misuse. A person consuming too much of the vitamin is playing with fire.

A person with bad kidneys should only take this vitamin under direct supervision of a qualified renal physician.

There is one general rule about this vitamin. Getting a little bit of direct sunlight everyday produces and activates the vitamin. A little bit of sun every day will help improve one's immune system. People with darker skin need more sun than people with light skin.

Anyway Doctor Campbell began the lecture by belittling the public for discussing vitamins and the immune system. He then ends the video by stating that he decided to start taking large doses of vitamin D.

The doctor gave bad advice.

If you are just wanting to improve your immune system, expose your skin to some direct sunlight every day. Taking multivitamins that include D, K and zinc is a good idea.

However, you should get your blood tested before taking megadoses of this or any vitamin.

The labs that do blood work are very good at what they do.

Health labs are in the business of studying evidence. Health labs are more likely to give evidence based results than the government.

The doctor is right. Evidence based health care is better than anecdotal or speculative care. The government, is not the best source for evidence. Actually laboratories are the best source.

The doctor didn't follow his own advice. The result is that he gave a dangerous recommendation on his vlog. Do not take mega-doses of any vitamin without first having your blood tested by a lab.