History Has a Way of Repeating Itself - Victorian Age 2.0
Most people don’t have the faintest idea of the true impact of the societal transformation that’s coming. The idea for this post was born in the comments section of my friend @bozz 's Hive post today.
Humanoid robots, like Tesla’s Optimus, will begin rolling out to the public in about a year. They will be able to do nearly everything a human can do. The robots will learn just like we do as well—simply by watching a human perform a task or a video of that task being done.
These humanoid robots won’t just do household chores and be our companions but they’ll also be able to do more complicated tasks like home renovation that we’d typically hire a contractor for. It will not only be our live-in "help" but will also have genius level intelligence and the dexterity of an athlete. When you begin to think of the cascading job losses that will be triggered by this transition and the ways in which it will reshape our society it’s mind-numbing.
My wife and I started watching Downton Abbey last week. I know, we’re super late to that particular party.
As we watched how the aristocratic class was waited on by an army of servants from the time they awoke to when they were tucked into bed at night something clicked in my brain. In some ways, we’re stepping right into a version of Victorian Age 2.0. Humanoid robots will give any household who can afford one the very same kind of luxury. A personal robot will take on the role of chef, body guard, maid, valet, and even chauffeur for those who don’t already have a vehicle capable of driving itself.
If history is any indicator this golden age of personal robotics probably won’t last forever. People will begin to think about and discuss how sentient robots should have basic rights. I’m already beginning to see discussions about robots rights online. It’s a strange, new world we’re stepping into and it’s sometimes difficult for our human intellect to keep up.
If five decades on this planet have taught me nothing else it’s taught me how often history repeats itself and it’s doing so again. This first phase of robotics will create an era much like we saw in the Victorian/Edwardian ages.
I’d be the first to admit what great timing this will be for Generation X as our joints begin to stiffen and our physical strength begins to weaken. But you’d better believe I’ll be a the best robot boss I can be—always conscientious and polite to my robot. I think I’ll call it Demerzel as a not-so-subtle nod to Isaac Asimov.
I had a friend, years ago, tell me he always is super-polite to AI, thanking it whenever he could. He said it was because he wanted to be on its good side when AI takes over. The AI he was talking about was Siri so I just shrugged it off as a personality quirk. As quickly as this technology is now evolving I think I can honestly say that perhaps Doug wasn't quite so quirky after all.
All for now. Thanks for reading.
That would be cool about the home improvement side of things, but man, I know how many weird things I have discovered in my house, I wonder how much it will be able to adapt for stuff like that. Eventually probably, but right away I can see it struggling.
Household DIY will be the ultimate test for these robots! I can’t tell you how many times I’ve had to make 2-3 trips to the hardware store in one day while working on a project, not to mention all the coins added to the swear jar! 😂
This x1000!
I'm gonna get a robot just to wipe my arse.. that's such a shitty job
😂
Our future sounds like it could turn out to be a scary Sci-Fi movie. It worries me.
It's a mixture of worrisome and exciting for me. I think, in some ways, we're going to consider ourselves lucky to remember what it was like before AI/Robotics existed.
Just like we do with knowing how life was like before cell phones and the internet. I used to know everyone's phone number, until cells came along.
I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing that this kind of automation is coming and it might take longer than we think to iron out all the quirks in robots...
It's looking like the tech might evolve exponentially from this point (if it doesn't go rogue). I think capable AI was the missing piece of the puzzle that stifled innovation. China already has entire shipyards set to be automated with robots and the only humans involved will be overseers of the bots.
That last part of the post made me laugh a lot. I think it's good to be polite to everyone, but if there's a chance that we might one day be “ruled” by androids, I think we should find a way to be their allies. In any case, as always, only a few will be able to afford these types of robots, and I'm sure there will already be a small factory making cheaper copies that won't do the job quite as perfectly and will have some defects, resulting in a total loss and a mountain of scrap metal. I'm just imagining all this, Eric. Hahaha. Have a nice Thursday and take care.
It's weird to think about what the human-robot dynamic will be like once the dust settles. We can probably look to Sci-Fi for clues. They will be a shock at first but eventually we'll accept them as "normal". I was thinking just last night how strange it would be to see a humanoid robot walking around the house at night when the lights are out. You're probably right! There, for sure, will be cheaper and less capable models. Thank you Nancy! Have a wonderful weekend!
love the Downton Abbey parallel because it nails how this could feel like a return to household staff for anyone who can afford an Optimus. The Demerzel nod made me grin, and and being a poltie boss to your bot feels like future karma. As Gen X, the thought of a tireless helper that can handle ladders while my knees complain is oddly comforting. If one brings me tea at 6am I might start curtsying out of habit.
!BBH
Thanks for your comment! I can't imagine how luxurious it would feel to have a bot taking care of all the things we can no longer do or tedious tasks. I can see how this will become a multi-trillion dollar industry. Tesla is saying the goal will be to get the Optimus down to $20k per unit. I can see people justifying this price, even more since it seems we won't be needing to buy/maintain cars in the future with robotaxis on the horizon.
totally with you. At 20k, if Optimus replaces a second car and and a few paid services, the ROI could be defintely faster than people expect, especially if updates keep adding skills. Robotaxis trimming car ownership makes the math even sweeter, and the Downton Abbey vibe gets real when your 'valet' can cook, clean, and watch the house while you sleep. Demerzel would approve.
This is a really interesting way to look at it. Robots could bring comfort and make life easier, but they might also take away many jobs. Just like in history, big changes come with both good and bad sides, and we’ll have to figure out how to deal with them.
They will, undoubtedly, eliminate jobs. Some are saying up to 90% of jobs will be wiped out within the first decade.
https://x.com/lee19389/status/1966283243294175458
#hive #posh
Technology has advanced a lot and a person who does not follow technology will not be able to progress either. So what I am saying here is that we will see that in the coming time, after a few years, we will see robots everywhere and everything will be seen to be perfect because robots will do the things that are there very quickly and humans cannot work that fast.
You're right, those who shrug off this new tech will be left behind in some aspects. There will be small pockets of people who choose to live without it and they might be a whole lot happier in some ways.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roko%27s_basilisk
Is this the reason why you should be kind to AI? :P
Interesting, I'd never heard of that! It's also interesting that the Streisand-effect made the theory popular. I feel like AI will be the key that unlocks so many of our mysteries. It feels like it will be the ultimate cheat-code.
I was pretty intrigued by your ideas here as well. I think you're onto something - but, it may end up just being a further gulf between us all. Doordash, Uber, et al; run by someone else's robot's for everyone else, as opposed to robot-soverign house holds. Robots on demand, if you will.
There will certainly be companies capitalizing on robots for cheaper labor. The job loss will be a catastrophic to a lot of people and governments will be scrambling to try to control civil unrest. I think households who can afford two cars will justify sacrificing one of the cars to make room in the budget for a robot. I just hope the robots are repairable and not like mobile phones that have to be replaced every 3-4 years.
Firstly I am sure you and your wife are enjoying Downton Abbey? It still is one of my favourite series! I loved the way the story not only tells us about the lives of the upper class, but also of the servants.
As for humanoid robots, I never thought of it that way, Victorian Age 2.0 is very apt! AI for sure is going to do away with many jobs, not so good.
'Robot Rights'- your friend was spot on!
Have a great weekend Eric.
We're really enjoying the series. We watched a few episodes as they were being released in 2010 but then got side-tracked and never continued. The dynamics between the social classes and how they were changing was interesting to me. Thank you Lizelle! I hope you enjoy yours too!