Would you take 55,000 STEEM or 1 BTC?

in #steemlast year

Bitcoin is trading around 7000 dollars US at the moment which is about 55,000 STEEM and I was thinking about a scenario that would require the consideration of their value.

So, let's see if this works.

The scenario:


If you were given the option to have 1 Bitcoin or 55,000 STEEM today under the provision that you could not trade or sell it for the next 5 years, which would you take?


 
What this means is that 5 years from now, you would have 1 Bitcoin available to sell. However, that isn't going to be the same for the STEEM as if it is powered up, it can be used to earn more STEEM through interest and curation at least.

What would need to be considered?

Note: I am guessing that airdrops would also need to be considered as both are likely to attract a multitude of token drops on them, but since they are impossible to factor in at this point, we can skip them.

Bitcoin?

So, 1 Bitcoin is going to be worth 1 Bitcoin 5 years from now, but what is the prediction going to be? At this point today, it looks Like McAfee is going to have to chow down on his own penis as it doesn't seem like it is going to hit the 1 million dollar mark in 2020, but who knows? Predicting future price is difficult and there is a great deal happening in the industry, but 5 years ago BTC was trading at around 300 dollars, which means it is 23x up over the last 5 years. Using the same simple and useless straight-line logic, 5 years from now BTC could be worth ~160,000 dollars.

What about the STEEM?

Well, STEEM being able to be powered up to have growth potential from the inflation pool means that for example, if the amount could attract 15% token earnings a year through curation and interest (is this close?), 5 years from now the amount of coins collected would be around the 110,000 mark, double what is there today. Of course, that is going to be influenced by the size of the pool which will be decreasing in that time as well as other factors like active voting stake, so lets say that instead of the 15%, we will factor it at 7.5% over the 5 years, which would leave ~80,000 STEEM.

What will 80,000 STEEM be worth in 5 years from now?

Two years ago the Steem that is at 13 cents today was nearing the All Time High of 8 dollars, so that 80,000 at the ATH was worth 640,000 dollars. To get to the 160,000 mark it would have to be worth 2 dollars of course. Will it ever get there again?

The other thing that one would have to factor is that past the 5 years when they can be traded per the rules, one is able to sell the Bitcoin for market price. However, Steem will still have voting and earning potential to collect and sell more, so one wouldn't have to necessarily sell the principle to get a return. We can't know what the price on this will be of course, but if it is high enough and the ecosystem has evolved to provide some stability to the the floor price, it might be better to take a hybrid approach and sell a little on the market from the principle, but sell weekly earnings on the held coins instead.

In a liquidation sale, which is going to have the higher value?

If it was forced that the entire amount would have to be sold at the 5 year mark, which would have the greater value? That is something that an investor would have to consider if investing long-term as the value of 1 bitcoin now will be one bitcoin in the future, but the value of the equivalent STEEM would contain considerably more STEEM (if powered up and active) five years from now.

There are obviously other considerations to factor in (like risk of failure) and these might differ depending on who you are, but I was curious what people would prefer and what their reasoning might be why they would choose one over the other.

So,

1 Bitcoin or 55,000 STEEM - and why?

 
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]

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BTC is the safe bet, STEEM has bigger earning potential but is a lot riskier.
STEEM started with a gigantic corrective pattern which is still not completed (9$ was only the peak of this pattern but not an impulse wave). So we don't know how far the first impulse wave will go.
Considering only the next 5 years, I'd take the BTC.

The entire industry is so small in comparison to the investment market it is hard to say. I think that as long as Steem can satisfy the tech fundamentals and offer ease of application, it has a good chance ahead. As I said above, it is funny how after 10 years existing, BTC is considered a safe bet.

The Steem
@tipu curate

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The steem because I could use that right now. Whether steem is around in the future is not really a concern as I would have been able to support people with that all the way to its demise. A penny a day I guess.

Yeah, the ability to have it active socially is a massive benefit for Steem.

Congratulations @tarazkp!
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55,000 STEEM because i think btc steem will be equal if steem community live conected alive

exactly.

BTC is likely to be around in 5 years. Steem...???

This is one of the risks to factor.

I like them both, but I'd have to opt for Bitcoin long term - just my Bitcoin maximalist pov, however!

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as a maximalist, shouldn't you only own Bitcoin?

I try to keep it over 50 % for my personal definition :)

Id say btc, but only because we dont know if steem will even be around in 5 years where as btc most likely will be.. with twitter and fb interested in cryptos you dont know if they will just swing in and steal all the people because they are an already established social media.. dont get me wrong, im always voting for steem, but the safe play would be btc..

but the safe play would be btc..

Funny isn't it? The "safe" play is BTC. Interesting change in the world over the last 10 years.

I was actually laughing when i wrote that because i know btc has only been around 10 years vs steems 3, but btc is a lot more known and accepted around the world. If steem does survive another 5 years the 55k tokens will probably be worth hella more than the 1 btc.

It is just funny because most of the world sees BTC as one of the riskiest investments possible, crypto people see it as the stable point :D

55,000 Steem and I’m an instaOrca? Sign me up!

But I already own some other Bitcoin that I plan to hodl for at least the next five years. Also, assuming that the Steem blockchain does not crash and burn, it’s hard for me to not see $2 Steem, well before five years.

Also, assuming that the Steem blockchain does not crash and burn, it’s hard for me to not see $2 Steem, well before five years.

Some people don't think it'll ever see it again, I think we will see well past that... if it survives :D

I think STEEM has a larger upside, but BTC has a lower risk.

I would take STEEM because if I’m getting it for “free” I would simply power-up and curate and grow vs BTC is a stick in a hard wallet and forget about it option.

BTC is a stick in a hard wallet and forget about it option.

"safe" and boring. I like the activity associated with Steem, but I have never been a passive person.

I would invest in Steem and power up, then i will have a passive income and from 55k steem grow to 80k steem and wait when bitcoin dominance falls down to 30% (it is just a matter of time) and then sell steem.
But of course steem could be 0$ in 5 years which a extremley risky asset.

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But of course steem could be 0$ in 5 years which a extremley risky asset.

Part of the fun. With getting it for "free", it has a massive upside.

I would take the 55,000 STEEM. I know it might be riskier as something could happen to STEEM, but I am here for the community and the benefit to myself and others that I interact with in the community that I engage with will be greater.

The BTC "community" is all about maximizing individuals over the community. The value might be there because of it, but it also makes it a very antisocial investment.

I'll have to go with 1 BTC.

I'm a low-risk kind of guy though and would rather a $3,000 BTC 5 years from now than $0.00 for my Steem.

Why I chose Bitcoin - Brand recognition. Even if people have never used Bitcoin they still have probably heard of it.
It's been around longer, so the chances of it going to 0 in the next 5 years are less.
Its design makes it a good store of value.
It would be awesome to say I have 1 BTC.

My actions though say I'd go with Steem though as I just sold all my BTC and alts to try and make it to dolphin status before the end of the year.

I'm a low-risk kind of guy though and would rather a $3,000 BTC 5 years from now than $0.00 for my Steem.

I would be super disappointed with both. All his work for a couple weeks salary? :D

My actions though say I'd go with Steem though as I just sold all my BTC and alts to try and make it to dolphin status before the end of the year.

There is an emotional attachment to what is used over what sits in a cold wallet. I think this is a good sign for Steem.

I would be super disappointed with both. All his work for a couple weeks salary? :D

I was assuming "worst case" scenario for both.

There is an emotional attachment to what is used over what sits in a cold wallet. I think this is a good sign for Steem.

Something very true that I haven't put much thought into. People value more what they work for then what they are given. Will be interesting to see how this plays out for Steem.

I was assuming "worst case" scenario for both.

Well, worst case is zero on both, but I don't think either will be at zero... maybe Steem ;D

well, at the moment I have more steem then BTC and I want to change that a bit, I would take the BTC and put it in one of the DEFI banks that give me roughly 5% per year on Bitcoin which cumulates as well so you also need to take that into account in your calculation

SO... GIMME

I don't know much about DeFi, do you have a good link I can read up on it from?

Thank you very much :)

You drive a hard bargain but make sone good points.
😁

At the end of the day, we all make and must live with our own decisions.

To true. A shame not everyone sees it that way.

Not many people want to take responsibility for their failures, even though they are keen to take credit for success they attribute to their own actions - even if the success was by chance alone.

Absolutely. I like tha way you think.

I'd take the 55,000 STEEM.

Larger upside potential, while I see very little upside on BTC (personal opinion).
STEEM is less volatile. More "sound." BTC will become much too expensive on the fees and far too volatile.
STEEM gives me MUCH MORE OPTIONS (power up, create income in voting, delegate, support causes), while as BTC is just another token. STEEM tokens can MEAN so much more than just a statement of value.

Larger upside potential, while I see very little upside on BTC (personal opinion).

Nowhere near that of Steem at the moment. If BTC goes 10x it has gone 3x over its ATH. For Steem, it is 20% of the ATH. Bu.... I am biased :)

STEEM gives me MUCH MORE OPTIONS (power up, create income in voting, delegate, support causes), while as BTC is just another token. STEEM tokens can MEAN so much more than just a statement of value.

This is what I see as the future of crypto, the actions that they can be used for to make life more interesting. Cold wallet storage isn't interesting.

I use the noun adverb token very selectively here.

token

LINK
noun

a thing serving as a visible or tangible representation of a fact, quality, feeling, etc.


Tokens are created to convey something. In commerce, tokens convey a consideration in an exchange. Tokens on their own, are useless. They are only useful when are linked to what they are conveying. In this case, proof of mind.
The only value I see in BTC is speculation. I don't like speculating with Capital.

I agree that at least for now, the only real value of BTC is speculation - the same for most coins. I am hoping that many more utility points arrive for Steem so that it becomes useful across a spectrum that empowers many users to interact with the blockchain in many ways.

I am hoping that many more utility points arrive for Steem

I as well. See you around.

Would you take 55,000 STEEM or 1 BTC?

I read that as someone is giving you the choice of having one of the amounts free, a gift with condition of no sale for 5 years. To me the choice is simple, I would take the steem. A little over two years ago I was loaned/gifted/delegated about 15 Steem. I have not directly bought or sold any Steem. By the end of the year I will have 2500 Steem Power.

Two years ago people were still talking about Steem Block Chain and Steemit as being a Ponzi scheme, it may be, I have no idea how long a ponzi scheme can last.

If I have 1 BTC, it will never earn/make more BTC. It will always be 1 BTC. 55,000 Steem, if if one just powered it up and did nothing it would still grow, it would make more steem. In 5 years regardless of price/value I would still have more steem than the 55,000 Steem gifted. The 1 BTC would still be 1 BTC in five years.

The other advantage of having the Steem verse the BTC is that I would be able to provide growth potential to other customers or to other groups who have a dream project via delegations, or votes. I would be able to touch many more lives with the Steem than I ever could with the 1 BTC, so that is another reason to take the Steem gift.

There is no guarantee that either one is going to have any value in 5 years time, but with the Steem, like I said above, during that 5 years or how ever long Steem will be around, the potential to help others is there, not so with BTC.

The other advantage of having the Steem verse the BTC is that I would be able to provide growth potential to other customers or to other groups who have a dream project via delegations, or votes.

This is a core component of my reasoning. Bitcoin is a game of individuals, Steem of communities.

I’d snag the Steem. Several already mentioned reasons why. I like that I’m involved with it, it can compound, and while riskier...I feel as though the entire cryptosphere is all a risk at the moment so I’m just rolling the dice and hoping fir some major life changing events to occult.

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The ability to use it makes a massive difference in my opinion and why not take the shot t the moon?. Hope you are doing well mate.

This is an interesting post because I just realised a couple of days ago that the $25 of btc I left in an account a few years ago is now worth $800 and I've been wondering whether it's worth the effort to transfer it into my very new Steem account to perhaps be more useful but less certain of value...or just leave it to sit there a while longer.
Timely!

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You know that feeling when you find a surprise 20 in your pocket? This is better than that :)

I know guys who bought Steem 18 months ago. When the price dropped, they just left it liquid, so they could sell it. They haven't, though. Why would you? The price is terrible. So instead of keeping it powered up, building relationships, enjoying all those juicy curation rewards and inflation, its just sat there.
That's a huge opportunity cost, just to enjoy the option to dump quickly.

I have an acquaintance who bought at 6 dollars and powered up, but was inactive. That was two years ago, so his coin holdings are about the same as they were when he bought instead of adding 50% to his holdings or more. He still needs 6 dollar Steem to break even.

1 BTC, because the price of STEEM has not reached my bids. Otherwise I would be already sitting in STEEM.