As I explained in yesterday's post, we are already under the effects of HF21 on the pending payouts (but don't check them out, because they are still displayed as if HF20 will still be around at payout time).
So this is my first post under the new rules, I wonder what the drop in STEEM rewards will be.
I estimate more than 50% for my account, since I'm not a top earning author, so I'll be hit significantly by the reward curve, besides the 40% shifted towards SPS and curators.
Nobody can account for the changing human (and bot) behavior. We also can't predict what the effect of the 2.5 free downvotes per day per account will be.
So in a way, there is a chance the outcome will be much better than predicted, but considering previous experiences I think we shouldn't be too hopeful, but instead be as much prepared as we can.
Regardless of the effects of these changes on your payouts, I strongly believe we are only squeezing the final significant drops of STEEM for Proof-of-Brain.
I also believe those drops won't dry out until we have functional and thriving ecosystems for SMTs, where PoB is rewarded.
Even if STEEM will probably become very difficult to earn as a content creator (or curator) in the future, I believe STEEM holders will have their investing opportunities wide open, the scarcer the token is to earn.
Let's also keep in mind that a few months back we had no SE tokens and no tribes, and those, if used properly, can be a good addition in rewards for content creators, curators and even (or maybe better said most likely) for inspired investors.
And looking at Steemit burnups for SMT, their initial version will soon after HF21 be ready for testing. Which means even more possibilities to earn, besides the base STEEM token.
Yes, we will earn less STEEM -- and possibly none in the future for PoB -- and we will have to adapt to this reality. We will have to realize that our content should not be created for the whole blockchain and the base token, but for specific tribes or communities and their tokens.
Since I came to this point, I wanted to remark that Steemit also learns from the experience of Steem-Engine tribes, it's not just SCOT that was inspired by SMT. I noticed in one of their reports that in the coming communities, a post will not be able to earn from more than 3 SMTs.
Translating this to SE tribes, it means that a post would not be able to earn from more than 3 tribe tags. Seeing that there are posts out there which have 10 tribe tags and no topic related tag, such a restriction seems good to me, but will see if it will be reflected to SE tribes as well, or they prefer to leave it at each tribe's level, because the management of every tribe has the option to mute accounts for rewards.
Maybe this post tries to look too far into the future. So far we have to deal with the effects of HF21 and adapting to it.
But you know, trying to understand where we are going is always a good exercise. Otherwise all we do is react, instead of taking proactive measures.
In a way, being involved with crypto and with Steem, we are already ahead of 99% of human population, so we "saw" something and were proactive. Let's keep being proactive and not (over)react to the immediate changes without trying to understand the bigger picture.