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RE: No News is Good News - Not So Much

in #sciencelast year

Looking at the official numbers as of the time I'm writing this, you can see that of the cases in which the disease has run its course, we have 910 total deaths and 3416 total recovered. That gives us 27% fatality rate if those numbers can be believed, which is a far cry from the official narrative that's being pushed. Considering that this disease is as contagious as the common cold, I'm starting to understand why Chinese officials seem to be in a panic state right now and why expatriates are being evacuated to their home countries and placed under mandatory quarantine upon arrival. 2% would be nothing to sneeze at, but fatality in over a quarter of patients is another matter altogether. Now it may not be quite as bad as it seems because the deaths numbers would accumulate before the recovered numbers and amplify the perceived death rate, but the fatality rate certainly doesn't look anywhere near as low as the claims from officials.

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all these official numbers are skewed by the idiosyncratic way China records it's deaths and causes of death as well as the usual propaganda & truth distortion that one would expect from a Communist empire.

"...deaths numbers would accumulate before the recovered numbers and amplify the perceived death rate..."

It is good you note this, because that is very true. It takes longer to survive than it does to die, and this skews stats.

Presently, due to the chaotic conditions of the epidemic, it is impossible to derive accurate figures for any metric regarding nCoV in China. The data provided by official CCP sanctioned sources is impossibly smooth and appears to be a deliberate attempt to project the ~2% mortality rate.

Thanks!