2020 Predictions

I'm sure much of this is grossly miscalculated but I decided to make some predictions for 2020. Its largely a thought experiment with very little basis. So I apologize if I'm entirely incorrect. I do think it will be interesting, however, to revisit this at the end of the year to see of anything was remotely accurate.

Health and Genetics

With increased scientific consensus, price of supplements and medications with known benefits to human longevity skyrocket. A months worth of NAD boosters goes from $40 at the beginning of 2019 to over $100 mid 2020. Metformin goes from pennies a dose to over $1. Underground markets for metformin open up while some call on governments to make the drug available over the counter without prescription.

Building on 2019 CRISPR advances, researchers identify new mechanisms that enable even greater certainty with genetic programming, reducing error rates significantly. Meanwhile, price per genetic modification continues to drop.

We are no closer to solving Male pattern baldness.

Keto is dead.

Blockchain and Decentralized Computing

With increased concerns about privacy and anti-competitive monopolies held by mega sized companies, a resurgence of interest in decentralized applications ensues, partly also fueled by Ethereum blockchain's accelerated move to proof of stake and Twitter's initial successes with a decentralized social network. Highly accessible decentralized alternatives to youtube, Medium, Facebook and Instagram gain significant traction.

Facebook's Libra is delayed to 2021.

Mixed Reality and HCI

Apple announces a set of AR glasses called iGlass at their annual September event. Expectations from Wallstreet are that, like what the iPhone did to mobile, the Apple AR device will be a catalyst for AR going mainstream. Firms everywhere scramble to build apps for the device in an attempt to be first mover. Privacy groups lash out at Apple and indications appear to suggest that using AR while driving is even more dangerous that texting.

Climate Crisis

2020 becomes the hottest year on record. CO2 emissions end the year at an all time high despite some reduction in climate change denialism. A temperature rise greater than 2 degrees becomes impossible to avoid, throwing off Paris Agreement targets. Science and opinion pivots from avoiding catastrophe to how to mitigate its effects. Government think tanks begin working on proposals for how to best address possible scenarios like far spread drought and a large scale climate refugee crisis.

Fridays for the future school strikes continue and the September strike has twice as many participants as the one in 2019. Greta opts to not travel to the Americas this time.

Brain-Computer Interface

Neuralink makes headlines with a working BCI prototype showing some simple computer input. Other BCI developers also make headlines and several kickstarter and indigogo campaigns are launched for consumer BCI kits (non-invasive).

Artificial Intelligence

China dominates AI, publishing the majority of AI research papers and winning most AI competitions for the year. Despite this, the US doesn't increase much funding into AI.

New ML algorithms come out of the UK and Canada increasing effectiveness of GANs and RNNs. Nvidia, Google and Facebook all showcase new 2020 ML hardware. OpenAI continues to make headlines with their demos. GAN based deep fakes are now easily made with iphone and android apps and a flood of deep fake videos are used in information war that will later be suggested as having had a tangible effect on the 2020 US election outcome.

Pop Culture

The game Cyberpunk 2077 is released and although reviews aren't as good as hoped, a renaissance of cyberpunk fashion and culture is seen. Possibly coincidentally.

Top Youtuber doubles 2019 earnings to around $50M. Not an 8 year old.

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