Trying to create an objective view on the #newsteem

in #newsteem2 years ago

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Well we all have a feeling about the #newsteem. Some are in favor, others are against! Most of this sentiment is based on how we do play the Steem game.
Were you an avid users of bidbots well then probably you are against!
Do you have some big accounts following you, well then you are probably in favor!
Do you have a shitload of Steem Power, then you are probably also in favor!
Are you struggling to get the post value above $0.5 or so, than you probably are against.
Many more situations can be written down!

Overall I do think that the sentiment within the group Orca and Whales are positive. In the Dolphin groups it is more or less neutral. At the bottom of the food chain most people are probably against!
The reason is simple! Depending on the stake you have, you will severely punished or rewarded. In some cases the increase in curating power does cover up the loss in author rewards, but for most users this isn’t the case.

So let’s try to create an objective view!

I did based my small investigation (if it is one) on the reports of @arcange and @penguinpablo!

Post and comments!

For this I did use the reports of @penguinpablo. The create a more or less objective view, I did select the data from Wednesday 07-08, Wednesday 11-09 and Wednesday 09-10.
In the beginning of August 38979 posts and comments were written. This was around 2 weeks before the HF. In the beginning of September, the posting and commenting activity already dropped with almost 15% (14.55 to be precise). It went down to 33305.
Now in October it has even dropped more to 32620 comments and posts. Which is a drop of only 3% compared to September, but almost 16.5% compared to before the Hardford. This is a lot, knowing that the user base did increase with a little bit more than 1%.

Votes

If we do compare the votes casted on those days, it gets even worse.
Starting with 509956 in August, dropping to 503118 in September and now in October it is only 376173. That is a decrease of 26.25%. That is huge!
Of course this all is correlated with the number of accounts transacting. Also here we do see it also only going downhill. In August we 41588 account performing an transaction on the blockchain, while now in October we are only with 33819. A drop of 18.7%.
So not only the user base did drop, but also the active users have become less active!

The drop in votes also can be explained because bidbots have been halted. Some bidbots had a huge following trail, so if the use of the bidbots decreases also the number of upvotes does decrease. Also vote selling has dropped, so some post went from 200+ upvotes to 30, because that don’t buy upvotes anymore.

This of course also will have an impact on the value of Steem. The less users we have, the less buy pressure their will be. The more users which will be leaving the more selling pressure will be created. Those 2 combined could cripple the value of Steem.

MVests per food chain segment in the steem ocean!

We are all aware that the user base can be split into more or less 5 groups! Red fish, minnow, dolphin, orca and whales.
The reports of @arcange does give an idea how many vests these groups have.
Here the data was token from 08-08, 08-09 and 08-10.

Mvests

Segment08-0808-0908-10
Red Fish139611392013926
Minnow280052774427765
Dolphin566695756459097
Orca878409031595533
Whale207038206284209995

number of accounts per segment

Segment08-0808-0908-10
Red Fish128328013044861314585
Minnow933492789238
Dolphin207421192169
Orca335340358
Whale363739

So the whales and the Orcas seems to be the winner of #newsteem! Yes, I do know that this isn’t only correlated with newsteem but there is of course also the possibility that some of the Dolphins and Orca did buy a shitload of Steem to power up and move up a segment!
At the moment 75,19% of all Steem power is divided by the Whales and Orcas. This means that 0.03% of the user do control 75% the power. While I don’t have idea problem with this, this isn’t exactly a healthy situation In my opinion. This opens the doors for dictatorship. So we should hope that this group doesn’t only think about their steem journey, but doesn’t destroy the lower parts of the foodchain!
A good sign however is that the group of minnow is shrinking. This means that some of those did move up toward dolphin level.
Another good indication is that the dormant voting power of the Orca and Whale group did decrease.
In September 118725 Mvest were sleeping, now in October this has decrease towards 115871. Meaning that more VP is used.

Conclusion

You can look at this figures how you want! You can interpret them how you want. That is the beauty of Metrics than be used in favor or against your opinion! We do see this in the political world year in, year out! It is like the glass is half empty or half full!
So, yes some of the bigger accounts did start to spread some upvotes towards the lower segments! But don’t hurry too soon! Getting a nice, juice and sweet upvote is rare. If will feel like winning the lottery, but don’t be surprised if this was a onetime action!
Yes the number of posts did decrease so it is easier to be seen and get noticed, there is an increased chance of getting such an upvote but if you haven’t been noticed by one of these account in the past 2 year, they probably won’t notice you now either!
People keep telling me that quality will be noticed and for sure consistent quality! But quality isn’t the only thing that matters! The topic in some cases is more important than the quality of an article! Take me for instance. Most of my posts are sports related, mainly about my own opinion about the Belgian Jupiler Pro League. It doesn’t matter how good my opinion is written down, it won’t be noticed by many! And to bad for me there are no whales or Orcas interested in the Belgium Jupiler Pro League!
I know in advance that with writing those posts I will never get above the linear reward curve! This linear reward curve is something I really don’t understand! The people who do upvote my posts are punished because I don’t reach the linear reward curve. So they would be better off upvoting posts of Authors who do beat the reward curve time after time! Their vote will have much more value on those posts! We all know the math behind this!
My posts which do score the best are about Steem.

We also have the downvotes! It is crazy how some people do use this power. I do get frequently donwvotes for some accounts. These accounts are just spreading downvotes around on the blockchain, no idea why! But it is what it is!
We now also have downvote trails, which I do find dangerous. Yes everybody is allowed to use their free downvotes like they desire. But why giving away this power to a downvote trail, you have no idea what you will be downvoting and why! Was it a personal downvote, a downvote based on the use of bid or tribe bots, plagiarism or so! You have no clue at all!
Well the power from the bidbots have shifted to the whales and orcas, I do hope they use this power wisely!

Yes, there are some good things about the HF or #newsteem. But like I wrote in the beginning it all depends on the situation which you are in!
Make your own conclusion and decided for yourself why you are here on the Steem Blockchain! And act according to this!
Enough ranting from me! I whish you all a nice day!

Cheers.
Peter

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It’s clear newsteem is only profitable for large accounts. But small accounts never made that much money. Whales run this place and will continue to do in the future. So no decentralisation at all.

About the downvoting. It’s a good idea. Look at Haejin. He no longer rapes the reward pool. Unfortunately, a lot of people are getting downvotes who don’t deserve it. More than before. Bad situation.

I’m remaining neutral on #newsteem. It could improve. But all in all negative for the future due to bad management, lack of new users, lack of interest of investors and STINC selling their stake.

Like I wrote, it all depends in which steem situation you are.
I have seen users who are getting almost a daily upvote of a curation trail, one with a huge amount of VP. So they won't complain and tell that the newsteem is a blessing!

I did downgrade from neutral to a little bit negative!
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This is an amazing posts that I read completely.
I fully agree with you in all your analysis and I hope someone stronger will hear us about the dramatic setup of the rewarding curve which is not giving a chance to anyone below the orca status.

Hope makes people continue. That is more or less what the big accounts are doing with spreading now and then a big upvote! This keeps people around.
But the decrease in active account is purely dramatic!
!BEER



Hey @toofasteddie, here is a little bit of BEER for you. Enjoy it!

It's kind of a ride or die situation for the small accounts. In my case I am posting for the sake of blogging and if any former bid bit or whale upvotes me is good enough if not...that's it. I don't understand however the accounts that you mentioned about that just simply spread downvotes left and right and do nothing other than that. I've had an experience with one as well. They will dissipate after a while for sure.

Overall I appreciate this #newsteem and I appreciate the most the diminuation of spam and of course abuse of the rewards pool and the whole platform after all. It's also good that bid bots started using their VP on random people not just the ones paying for votes.

Steem on!

Like I wrote some of the changes with the HF are great and make steem better. But I do start to have the feeling that the negative things are overpowering the positives.

Just like you I will steem on, and see what the future will bring!

Cheers,
Peter

The drop in activity is clearly visible. Still hoping to find some good posts during European day time, but the number is annoyingly low - every day it becomes harder to motivate myself to go through that feed of new posts....

I more or less gave up on searching new posts. The platform is now run by a few accounts who has so much SP (most of them delegated to them) that they rule the platform.
They even upvote real shitty posts. One even has 1% of all SP available.
Guess I will need to write a poem to get an upvote from them :)

I would laugh it it wouldn't be so sad....

@tipu curate

i agree with your view, which is based on actual data, and show that number of posts and votes is decreasing

Posted using Partiko Android

Consider me "meh" on newsteem. The big fish will continue to dominate and we little guys with be left with the pieces. I'm just not sure if it's sustainable long term (or to be more than a marginal player). But I'm not here for any major profit as I have a life to live and enjoy outside of Steem and in the end it's just another social media platform. The market will always decide viability.

Posted using Partiko Android

Steem is only costing me money :) So also only here for the interaction.
And yes, the whales will become dictators. Sadly but true!

Cheers,
Peter

Hi @fullcoverbetting!

Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 4.348 which ranks you at #2658 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has not changed in the last three days.

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 92 contributions, your post is ranked at #58.

Evaluation of your UA score:
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 2 years ago Reveal Comment