Model Madness 2020: Tuesday Tournaments Preview

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So, today we going to preview the four conference tournaments that start tomorrow through the lens of the different models we have. Of course, I'll share which teams the models like, which teams are expected to make the formal tournament in two weeks, and some teams that could threaten the top contenders in each conference to steal a tournament spot.

We're going to work with the models from last year for now as work is keeping me busy, but I will dedicate posts to the models once they are developed and ready to use. Expect to see one around Thursday and the other on the weekend.


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Atlantic Sun Conference

Last Year's Champion: Liberty

Leaders
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Liberty27-412224.076 (30)0.1188 (39)0.1273 (46)
Challengers
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
North Florida20-1121741.849 (121)0.0229 (150)0.0363 (134)
Outsiders
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Lipscomb14-1531291.654 (224)-0.0437 (230)-0.0535 (228)
Jacksonville14-1771231.109 (241)-0.0551 (246)-0.0742 (257)
Stetson15-1641042.770 (286)-0.0644 (260)-0.0722 (256)

Liberty is the hands-on favorite to repeat as champion putting together a strong season and ranking in the Top 50 for all three metrics. Nobody comes close. The Atlantic Sun is typically a one-bid, but Liberty will probably have a case to make it if they lose in this tournament with their strong resume.

North Florida finished with the same record in conference (13-3), but given their number of losses, they finished outside the Top 100 in all three metrics. They did split the season series with Liberty so they do have a shot.

Lipscomb and Stetson are only mentioned with an outside shot as they both were able to steal games from Liberty while Liberty was on the road. Both are outside the Top 200 and are tourney long shots. Given that all games are hosted by the higher seed, it's hard to see someone other than Liberty winning it all.

Big South Conference

Last Year's Champion: Gardner-Webb

Leaders
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Winthrop21-1021771.053 (113)0.0434 (120)0.0428 (125)
Radford20-1011644.020 (139)0.0387 (125)0.0472 (121)
Challengers
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Gardner-Webb15-1531537.183 (171)-0.0405 (223)-0.0517 (227)
Outsiders
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Campbell15-15111262.355 (230)-0.0639 (256)-0.0766 (259)
UNC Asheville14-1561043.620 (285)-0.0638 (255)-0.0827 (267)
Longwood14-1741126.562 (267)-0.0863 (285)-0.1013 (286)

In the Big South, it's a two team race with Winthrop and Radford tying for the regular season. Radford was the 1 seed based on tie-breakers, but 2 of the 3 models I'm running favor Winthrop. Given the highest remaining seed hosts the Championship game, that likely gives a slight edge to Radford.

Gardner-Webb won last year and finished in the Top 200 for the EDM ranking. As for other teams that have a chance, the rest of the conference is pretty even. Campbell has pretty competitive ratings among the rest which shows you that anyone has a shot if Radford and Winthrop are upset because they finished last place in the league. Things should be competitive given this is a one bid league.

Horizon League

Last Year's Champion: Wright State

Leaders
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Wright State25-612021.986 (65)0.0852 (70)0.0696 (70)
Challengers
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Northern Kentucky21-921679.256 (135)0.0488 (118)0.0532 (112)
Outsiders
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Youngstown State17-1451354.575 (213)-0.0231 (203)-0.0266 (208)
UIC15-1641440.948 (191)-0.0324 (215)-0.0485 (225)
Green Bay16-1531323.252 (222)-0.0368 (220)-0.0300 (210)

Wright State is the clear favorite and looks to repeat as champion this year. They rank in the Top 100 for all three models while 2nd place Northern Kentucky is outside the Top 100, but inside the Top 150. While Northern Kentucky might have a shot, Wright State swept them over the course of the season.

The next three teams (Youngstown State, UIC, and Green Bay) all finished with winning records in the league and all account for each of Wright State's losses. Wright State is still a heavy favorite, but the tournament semifinals and finals are held at a neutral site, giving the outsiders more of a chance if you give a lot of credence to home-court advantage. In prior years with Butler this league could yield a couple of teams, but Wright State doesn't look like it can afford to lose this tournament.

Horizon League

Last Year's Champion: Colgate

Leaders
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Colgate23-811994.992 (75)0.0757 (78)0.0823 (85)
Challengers
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Boston University18-1331711.797 (126)0.0207 (151)0.0111 (167)
American16-1321705.253 (127)-0.0017 (184)0.0000 (181)
Lafayette18-1151335.050 (219)0.0057 (175)0.0139 (164)
Outsiders
TeamRecordSeedEDMSPMMASPM
Army15-1441234.439 (241)-0.0345 (216)-0.0368 (214)
Navy14-1561198.468 (247)-0.0419 (225)-0.0447 (220)
Loyola (MD)15-1691213.937 (245)-0.0461 (233)-0.0589 (236)

Lastly, in the Patriot League, Colgate looks to repeat as tournament champions as the 1 seed for the second year in a row. They're favored in all ratings and are in the Top 100 in all three.

Finding the next best team is hard. Boston University and American have Top 200 ratings across the board, while Lafayette was the only team to sweep Colgate. The service academies (Army, Navy) have an outside shot as well as Loyola of Maryland who had their ratings boosted when they also beat Colgate earlier in the season. But Colgate will have home court should they make the final.

A fairly even field in a one bid league should make for an exciting and potentially chaotic tournament.

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