Model Madness 2020: Thursday Tournaments Preview
Today we're going to cover the Missouri Valley Conference and West Coast Conference tournaments that are starting on Thursday. In addition to analyzing the top teams in each conference, I'll cover which teams are safely in the tournament and which teams desperately need wins or need to win outright.
Tomorrow I'll cover the Southern Conference and I get into my first new model for this year and explain how it works.
Missouri Valley Conference
Last Year's Champion: Bradley
Leaders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | 25-5 | 1 | 2294.148 (23) | 0.1506 (18) | 0.1703 (19) |
Challengers
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loyola-Chicago | 21-10 | 2 | 1906.674 (93) | 0.0703 (84) | 0.0789 (87) |
| Indiana State | 18-11 | 3 | 1787.823 (108) | 0.0605 (93) | 0.0742 (92) |
| Bradley | 20-11 | 4 | 1799.211 (104) | 0.0579 (96) | 0.0656 (102) |
Outsiders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State | 15-16 | 6 | 1831.223 (102) | 0.0140 (160) | 0.004 (176) |
| Valparaiso | 16-15 | 7 | 1653.633 (138) | 0.0112 (165) | 0.0116 (169) |
| Drake | 18-13 | 8 | 1341.431 (213) | 0.0160 (159) | 0.0271 (149) |
Northern Iowa is the clear leader in the Missouri Valley Conference with their 25-5 record and Top 25 ratings in all three models. Despite the high ratings in my models, Northern Iowa is still on the bubble for the big tourney in March, but should be in regardless of their performance. That being said, they'll want to avoid losing in the quarterfinals to keep their resume intact.
Everybody else in the conference is on the outside looking in. The 2-4 seeds are all solid teams with ratings near or better than 100. A strong run could see one of these teams steal a spot in the tourney with a 12 or 13 seed. The rest are long shots. Missouri State has a terrible record, but decent ratings, and Drake has a good record, but has been on a downtrend recently.
West Coast Conference
Last Year's Champion: Gonzaga
Leaders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 Gonzaga | 29-2 | 1 | 3195.079 (1) | 0.2075 (5) | 0.2314 (5) |
Challengers
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #15 BYU | 24-7 | 2 | 2625.385 (6) | 0.1588 (15) | 0.1788 (16) |
| Saint Mary | 24-7 | 3 | 2242.474 (26) | 0.1485 (19) | 0.1708 (18) |
Outsiders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 20-11 | 5 | 1889.573 (95) | 0.0833 (71) | 0.0969 (69) |
| Pacific | 23-9 | 4 | 1845.129 (100) | 0.0780 (75) | 0.0920 (76) |
Gonzaga holds its perennial status as the conqueror of the West Coast Conference and for the second year in a row it dominates the EDM rating holding the number #1 overall spot. Ranking Top 5 in the other two ratings, Gonzaga is likely on its way to another 1 seed in the national tournament. But they were in the same position last year only to get upset by a bubble team in Saint Mary's.
BYU is comfortably in tournament contention given their national ranking, their win against Gonzaga, and their Top 16 ranking in all three models. Given their bye to the semifinals, any wins can only help their position. Saint Mary's comes in with an identical record, but no win against Gonzaga. Given that the conference is strong this year and their schedule is good (with SPM and MASPM ratings in Top 20), they are should be safely in the tournament and will be looking to improve their seeding as well.
San Francisco and Pacific were decent Top 100 teams this year, so I'll give them a shout out as the West Coast Conference is very deep this year. They'll need to win out to get into the tourney, but if either team accomplishes that, they'll have to take out Gonzaga and either BYU or Saint Mary's giving them 2 signature wins and a likely 12 seed.