Model Madness 2020: Remaining Tournaments
So, there are three more tournaments to cover before conference tournament season is fully started and the NCAA tournament gets sorted out. We're four days out from Selection Sunday so over the weekend I'll evaluate the models and present the results of their predictions over the past two weeks.
Note: The Ivy League Tournament which was supposed to take place this weekend starting on Saturday has been cancelled as a precaution due to the growing Coronavirus threat. Also, the NCAA tournament has announced they will continue play with no spectators. If anything changes and games are cancelled, I'll adjust accordingly and write an update post. Obviously, player and spectator safety trumps the importance of any game or tournament.
American Athletic Conference
Last Year's Champion: Cincinnati
Leaders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 20-10 | 1 | 2170.647 (40) | 0.1378 (37) | 0.1138 (40) | 0.366 (43) |
| #22 Houston | 23-8 | 2 | 2566.618 (8) | 0.1622 (22) | 0.1508 (17) | 0.508 (16) |
| Wichita State | 23-8 | 4 | 2268.359 (27) | 0.1604 (23) | 0.1430 (22) | 0.405 (32) |
Challengers
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 21-10 | 6 | 2107.542 (57) | 0.1279 (41) | 0.1064 (44) | 0.330 (52) |
| UConn | 19-12 | 5 | 2186.348 (38) | 0.0962 (70) | 0.0863 (66) | 0.348 (50) |
| Tulsa | 21-10 | 3 | 1972.992 (76) | 0.1019 (64) | 0.0863 (65) | 0.275 (70) |
Outsiders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 19-11 | 7 | 1857.094 (103) | 0.0821 (83) | 0.0720 (82) | 0.264 (76) |
In a tight American conference, Cincinnati edged out Houston for the 1 seed. It was a three-way tie between Cincinnati, Houston, and Tulsa. Houston is the only team that is securely in the tournament and the only team with an AP rank. They have a Top 10 ranked EDM and have Top 25 rankings in the other three models. Cincinnati is in a tough spot despite winning a share of the regular season title. They are squarely on the bubble and needing of quality wins. Even if they make the final, they are probably a Last 4 Team in and that's a pretty thin margin to navigate.
Wichita State is a little further down the bubble having finished 4th with a mediocre in-conference record, but having pretty good rankings in the Top 35, and a solid record, they might have just as good of a case as Cincinnati.
The challengers include Tulsa who despite their tie for the lead in the conference don't have a good enough resume to make the tournament without winning out, Connecticut and Memphis. Memphis was ranked earlier in the season with a strong start, but have faded throughout the season and all models show them outside the Top 40.
SMU is included in the outsiders as they have some Top 100 rankings and a pretty competitive record.
Big West Conference
Last Year's Champion: UC Irvine
Leaders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Irvine | 21-11 | 1 | 1905.707 (93) | 0.0424 (126) | 0.0487 (111) | 0.208 (103) |
| UC Santa Barbara | 21-10 | 3 | 1566.217 (167) | 0.0314 (141) | 0.0288 (140) | 0.136 (159) |
Challengers
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | 17-13 | 4 | 1352.248 (210) | 0.0005 (182) | 0.0003 (182) | 0.105 (195) |
| UC Riverside | 17-15 | 6 | 1363.974 (207) | -0.0617 (242) | -0.0471 (239) | 0.097 (205) |
Outsiders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal State Northridge | 15-17 | 2 | 1177.952 (259) | -0.0440 (223) | -0.0436 (230) | 0.071 (240) |
| UC Davis | 14-18 | 5 | 1311.445 (217) | -0.0842 (269) | -0.0655 (264) | 0.079 (230) |
UC Irvine won the Big West tournament last year with the 1 seed and this year taking are looking to repeat in the same manner. From a model perspective, they are a consensus favorite and even have a Top 100 ranking from the EDM model. UC Santa Barbara did have a better record, but a worse seed at 3. The models are also not very impressed with their best rankings in the 140s. Two losses to mediocre Cal State Northridge will do that. Irvine is probably a 14 or 15 seed, while Santa Barbara is at best a 15.
Hawaii and UC Riverside make up the challengers. Both teams were capable of finishing the regular season with overall records above .500. Both teams have competitive WRI rankings around 200, although Hawaii appears to have had the better schedule with their rankings in the SPM and MASPM being 60 spots higher than that of Riverside.
Northridge is an outsider, but they are the 2 seed winning the tiebreaker over UC Santa Barbara having swept them. Given this tournament has produced some below .500 champions in the past, we're including UC Davis as an outsider for good measure as well.
Western Athletic Conference
Last Year's Champion: New Mexico State
Leaders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State | 25-6 | 1 | 2171.652 (39) | 0.1051 (60) | 0.0909 (61) | 0.175 (132) |
Challengers
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UM Kansas City | 16-14 | 5 | 1331.374 (214) | -0.0388 (217) | -0.0394 (223) | 0.065 (243) |
Outsiders
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | 14-15 | 3 | 1509.171 (178) | -0.0598 (239) | -0.0492 (242) | 0.055 (259) |
| UT Rio Grand Valley | 14-16 | 2 | 1208.699 (241) | -0.0762 (261) | -0.0661 (265) | 0.042 (289) |
The Western Athletic Conference has been dominated by New Mexico State for quite a while now. Having won the past three tournaments in the WAC, they are the standard in the league. They struggled to start the season, but finished conference play with a perfect 16-0 record dominating their competition. Their early struggles take them out of contention for an at-large bid, but they'll be the 13 seed that no team wants to play given their 19 game winning streak.
Who is New Mexico State's biggest threat? It's probably UM Kansas City who was the only eligible team to finish with an above .500 record. But with all sub-200 rankings it'll be a tough ask. The good news for both teams is that whoever wins the semifinal assuming both teams win their first game will have an easier opponent in the final.
As for outsiders, we have the top teams from the other side of the bracket, Rio Grande Valley and Seattle. Seattle beats Rio Grande Valley in all the models and is favored to meet New Mexico State in the final, but that is as far as either of these teams will probably get. Don't be surprised if one of these teams loses their first round game however. The competition outside New Mexico State for a weak 16 seed is a little more even.