Region 12871 ejected a M2.8 flare which is travelling towards us.
We can see which region this is by using the SolarMonitor.org
The forecast model is called WSA-ENLIL + Cone.
( iSwa )
Arrival forecast Sept 27 at 00:00 +/- 12hrs
Forecast Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 7.0
Kp 2 – Quiet – Auroras readily visible and become brighter and more dynamic
Kp 3 – Unsettled – Bright auroras visible at zenith. Pale green colour more obvious
Kp 4 – Active – Bright, constant and dynamic northern lights visible. More colours start to appear
Kp 5 – Minor storm – Bright, constant and colourful aurora display, red and purple colours appear. Aurora coronae likely
Kp 6 – Moderate storm – Bright, dynamic and colourful aurora display. Aurora coronae likely. Memorable to those who witness them
Kp 7 – Strong storm – Bright, dynamic and colourful aurorae. Visible in the southern sky. Aurora coronae very likely