FUD 2022 - what is coming

Another episode of the never-ending FUD.

Inflation fear - Inside trades damage reputation

Inflation fear. Rate increases, floating the yield curve. That is public information.

But behind the scenes, shady guys abuse it and spread fear.

IMO Inflation is not a big deal, reason is I think it will become incredibly hard to earn money ( not pennies) in the future in terms of a level 2 ownership society. In the short term, there can be inflation, but it will be not the end of fiat or something similar.

Inflation is not the problem, it is the abuse of the current system. Look this guy made in 5 days 2 Billion USD because of the market shock.

That's something that damages the reputation of the money way more than simply the fact of inflation. Transitory or not.

Covid fud

In short, variant a fusion with variant 2 and become stronger. Now you have to level up your vaccine level to stand alive.

Jokes beside.

In combination with Inflation fear ( in general is the same reason), the market is in fear. Politicians have the superpower to move markets.

Shutdown, stimulus check, rate increases, and restrictions.

That's all full random and spoken behind closed doors.

Makes it impossible to predict any short or middle-term things.

With inflation fear a lot of meh.

Ukraine war fear - Russian Invasion

Russians send more troops to the border of Ukraine. Western world has no idea how to deal with it, not unlikely to see Russia invades Ukraine. I mean western had also no idea how to deal with Crimea.

Will be WW3 a result? I don't think so. I think no western country would risk that for Ukraine. So business as usual.

It could start another cold war.

Another point could be for Russia, to be in war forever in Ukraine, so they can never join nato. Who knows, that would be the most active play to protect against that from Russia's perspective.

What about the markets? Higher prices in energy are another catalyst for Inflation.

So not good at all.

China Real estate bubble

No Bailout on companies like Evergrade will start a chain reaction that could start itself a recession around the globe. China is a very big market. From a slowdown to a collapse, everything would hurt the markets.

To compare it a bit is like 2008.

Conclusion

Same fear as last year, but things become more concrete. Crypto is more connected than ever to the classic markets, so I would expect similar movements. Like always, with higher beta.

I think I missed some other big FUD, like automation and labour market. But those are strongly connected to covid in terms of time. So maybe the same fud with other names.

In terms you are bored give this a look: https://leofinance.io/@urun/subscription-econemy It is about the subscription economy I write about yesterday. I would love to have more comments on it.