RE: The AI Economist: Can It Optimize Tax Policy?
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All things being equal. That's always the Achilles heel of Economics. We cannot use scientific method with Economics because we can never have a control Economy to compare. We could try comparing one economy to another where something was tried; but, things are never equal in terms of size, social values, populations, industries, resources, and such.
Even within a country, it is impossible to get a handle of all the little details that contribute to an economy. This relates to chaos theory. A kid trading Magic The Gathering cards could end up causing a tuna shortage in Des Moines, Iowa through a crazy chain of events. There is so much minutiae to model that even AI would eventually fall flat like weather models tend to do on long range forecasts.
It would also have to account for rent seekers. As soon as policy is changed, somebody somewhere will figure out ways to cash in. How do you model that? We see that here on Hive whenever hard forks try to address a problem, whether spam, gaming votes, bots, etc.
At best, I think AI can come up with general ballpark figures of what could work in an economy. It could be a start.
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