For me, 2019 was the highest "spike year" where crypto made more expansion in terms of getting to the ears and heads of humans. 2020, is looking like almost a free fall in that sense... I mean, the expansion rate. Most of this might obviously be associated with the lack of "constant" hypes around altcoins and bitcoin price itself, which always contribute heavily for the desire to learn and explore.
Although, once real life scenarios using blockchain concepts or crypto as means of becoming a business operate for more than 3 years, the picture usually changes. I usually see the first year as the typical place where the "ICO" occurs, then there is another year of launch, followed by a third year of adaptation and consolidation of the business.
So, for me, any serious business or startup that does not plan for at least 3 years, it's most likely to fail. This is very simple to explain, there is a very well defined market on crypto for businesses, but due to the considerable high amount of time and effort needed to onboard the necessary skills and customers that make the business profitable, short timed based ideas or solutions are hugely undervalued and therefore might be better off set apart to later align with a slow-release and planned strategy than can be used as a tool for mass adoption or as a competition kill switch.
Drop me any words on this if you largely disagree... I would be very keen on hearing your thoughts.
Not too long ago, I participated in a Crypto.com survey that got me thinking after finding out the results of that research.
Now, a few comments on this research. To start with, I got really surprised with ONLY 10k responses. That's really very little and as the detailed review shows, mostly from Europe and North America. This shows how difficult crypto still is to adopt. Maybe I was over considering Crypto.com customer base, but either way, it was in some sense a disappointment.
Crypto Literacy Survey
We collected 10,281 effective responses during the course of the survey. The main takeaways from the survey are listed below.
68% respondents scored full marks in financial literacy
Average score is 2.6 (out of 3)
Out of the 10,281 respondents, 4,218 (41%) proceeded to the intermediate level and 1,879 (18%) proceeded to the advance level
This bit (above) shows the kind of people that responded to this, most of them, know crypto for some time already. So, another sign of, not yet for fast adoption.
2% respondents scored full marks in crypto literacy
Average score is 7.9 (out of 20)
And it is in this 2% that you confirm what I just said above. People that really know crypto and cared to respond are just a minority.
The distribution per title gained as below:
Crypto Beginner: 13%
Crypto Apprentice: 57%
Crypto Veteran: 28%
Crypto Expert: 2%
Crypto Master: 1%
Respondents also tend to rate their knowledge level correctly. The higher the crypto knowledge they believe they have, the higher the score they got
This last bit was thought to be a very good finding. People know how to rate themselves, which is a very powerful finding for marketing people. Knowing how to expose difficulty in crypto is very important in order to get as many customers as possible.
I kind of enjoyed finding out about this kind of research attempt especially because it helps me to re-base my language when talking to communities. Will likely respond and check other research materials from them. On the other hand, I am still unsure of their latest strategy on flattening out the interest rates, smells something went really wrong without their knowledge, but maybe I am wrong.
Where I see DAOs in 2020+
To be honest, in my opinion there is a LOT of miss-information from who writes or shares news about this type of blockchain technology. Don't get me wrong, the tech has potential, but you need to understand the complexity and limitations of the code that tries to implement it, before committing to it, thinking it will solve all your "organization" problems.
I have been inquired multiple times about the "if's" and "how's" of this technology could potentially change the future of crypto, and I never got to the point of being sure to whom I was talking to really understood the level of complexity I was trying to transmit. It can be put very simplistically for everyone to understand as a proof of concept, but it's when you need to "make sure" it works, that you really find the real challenges.
WTF am I trying to say?
Well, imagine that in a very not so far away future, all banks finances, taxes, laws, etc, could be replaced by automated code that makes "most" of the decisions, based on pre-agreed principles or even human beings grouped decisions.
Everyone can quickly get the benefit right? Super fast processing, cheaper services, transparency, rigorous auditing, etc... but then, if the code has a bug, what happens? What processes kick in, what needs to stop and when? This is where Governments creep out...
We are talking about people's lives! You can kill a business if a mistake is done. You can kill a person if the hospital does not admit you in time under a certain urgent situation. There are huge implications on how the technology can be implemented and where. Then privacy, human beings rights, etc...
On the other hand, because the appealing factor on how the use of DAOs can protect and simplify certain large problems, the dilemma between measuring risks like the ones I stated above and trying the technology in the real world, become quickly scary stories in the eyes of people that never heard about it. In my opinion, we need a bridge that helps experimenting with the technology while not fully yet replacing the current historical mechanisms. Yes, it will add overheads but in some applications these will quickly compensate while still being able to fallback in the event of not fit for purpose.
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