math, science, covid, doubt, conspiracy, musings.

in #informationwar10 months ago

In June 2019, I blogged a question is Is there a biological attack being financed against the United states. Granted, that was in regard to ebola-which we don't hear about anymore other than Un officials abusing the locals through their usual means [to keep this rated g/pg].

After Covid broke out, various attempts to cover up its origins, and what we are learning, we are learning there are efforts by Dr. Fauci to engage in gain of function research with coronaviruses so that human can become infected. yes humans; not mice, rats, potato beetles, or other pests but your fellow human beings. And in my april 2020 blog calling for an investigation into Facui/Daszak/Ecohealth alliance (, Seems in the last few months every started to, and they are horrified. I saw Fauci's connection to what we now call agenda 2030. Agenda 2030 exists, many of the claims about agenda 2030 are fringe but not without merit.

Certainly any connection to agenda 2030 is enough to put any and all conspiracy theorist on guard, give other people reason to pause, and certainly other people will just dismiss it as conspiracy theories.

Whatever the truth may be, social media doesn't want us to talk about it. Even comments on websites are enough to cause big tech to demonetize a site. Everything except the narrative put out by their selective "official sources" is banned as fake news, and their official sources have conflicts of interest.

I think a lot could be said and investigated about social media, AI, and the traditional media. To what extent is social media paying major news providers, or much much ad revenue is a site going to collect by people sharing it on social media, or to what extent does AI just add fluff or emphasis to fill up a news story to advance the developers causes-meaning a journalist presenting a differ views in an artical, when passed through AI, may end up a complete mess with the AI adding adjectives and adverbs to discount the reporter main points or otherwise contradict their story on a topics. But i digress, except to as the question of is main stream media under monopolistic control of AI algorithms-and must each article pass the AI in order for the media company to continue to be monetized? Are sr editors forbidden to disclose to journalist that the AI is making the editorial decisions Maybe there will be a project veritas on the topic in the future. But I have no substance at this point. And contrary to the fake news hawks, this is healthy. The formation of a proof doesn't necessarily begin with facts, they begin with ideas. These ideas may consider facts, beliefs, observations, or may start out rejecting we are are told as facts, and upon interrogating the ideas begins the process of discovery and the formation of proofs. So what is it they don't want us to discover but silencing people at the idea/discussion stage? Whatever they don't want us to discover is the real truth-not their flip flopping facts that they falsely call science implying anyone who could dissent in a Windmill attacking Luddite.

What the CDC, NIAID, and others in the Biden administration are working with at best are a hypothesis. They are conducting and observing a human experiment and trying to coerce participation through economic control and social controls. It is a massive science experiment, there are no [scientific] laws/axioms at this point just ?educated? opinions. But big tech would lead us otherwise. For those who say, "it is FDA approved." The answer is: FDA approval is still a stage 4 trial. . Not sure how many people realized that. Human Guinea pigs in a controlled experiment.

I am not here to make the case to take the vaccine, or not to take the vaccine. I myself am about as low of a risk you can get without having previous caught covid-19. People need to consider their own risks, including family risks, and make their own decisions. But I really have to make a case for/against the vaccine?

Source: Peter Boykin

With the Delta, Lamda, and mu variants, and booster shots, being vaccinated seems kind of futile. At best the claims seem to be partial protection for a short period of time. That doesn't stop NPR ( (last updated sep 29th)) and others from saying 70-75% of the country needs to be fully vaccinated to develop herd immunity. Other nations have exceeded 90% of the population vaccinated and have the highest rates in the world (also npr the media tells us to trust them when it comes to science and facts. Supposing the vaccine works against the alpha variant, and the alpha variant is less virulent than these later mutations then it might be the variant of choice to get. . A cynic would ask, is it better that we allow the alpha variant to spread than suppress it giving the alternate strains dominance? But I am sure that cynical view would be flagged as false news, misinformation, etc, by people so dumb they became grifters for big tech. Apparently any variant can lead to a breakthough case; but the breakthrough cases are mostly delta. But is the vaccine helping one a less desirable strain to become become more dominant than presumable a safer one?

Btw, did you know our government has a rumor control division under CISA partnered with independent groups to ban material on social media? . Thanks to Dr. Shiva's lawsuit who found the eip ( ) during discovery. I am sure there will be a lawsuit ending section 230 soon enough for being used by government actors to infringe upon the first amendment in partnership with Big tech. Private actors can be sued under section 1983 if there exists a joint nexus with state actors, and such nexus caused the rights violation. I don't think the courts have any choice but to strike in whole or in part, section 230.

There are aspects of risk assessment that can be done by just about anyone, Even without jumping to more complex SRI models. an easier variant is the expected outcome equation. Let's say you flip a normal coin 10 times, and there is a 50% chance of landing on heads. Basically your expect that the coin will land on heads 5 times from the 10 coin flips. it doesn't have to be 5 on the first trial, or the next, but over infinite time the average will be 5 per trial.

So it is at this point that I am going to return to conspiracy theory. There is a malthusian school of thought, you might see it in an international politics course on the causes of war. Often it come down to that a country is only so finite, as is its ability to prduce/acquire food, and that shortages of these basic life necessities can lead to emmigration and war. . This has fueled population control ambitions, Some of which is shared by Ted Turner and Bill gates, including substantial donations to the United nations for that purpose. Those who grew up in the 90s watching captain planet saw not just one episode based upon the boook, the population bomb, but two episodes seasons apart. There is also the Georgia [state where Ted Turner lived/s] Guidestones which was erected in the 1980s callings for the earth population to be kept at 500 000 000. Also an interesting tale about the deep pockets about the anonymous person who ordered its contruction.


So there is clearly a population control lobby with no shortage of money, and Covid-19 certainly Gave America's largest farmer more of money. I cringe to think at whose really behind getting produce to develop mRNA vaccines too, and the harm it could cause through cross pollination with normal food crops. So what are the odds that these malthusiams, making billions off the vaccine, have murderous ambitions. the same ambitions the 2030 crowd have been warning of of for quite some time?

The chances of dying from covid for people under 40 is extremely low.
I know these numbers don't really do justice, nor does these, but presently the death rate for people aged 18-30 are 570x less likely to die "of covid" than people over 85.
The overall rate of dying from "covid" [in the usa] is 1.6%.

And what constitutes a covid death is still a contested issue-well maybe not this extreme (source:thedailywasp, maybe).


We don't have the best numbers to play with sadly. But let's assume everyone who contracted covid at an age > 85 died, that means the average 20-30 year old might have under a .2% chance tops of death if they get the virus.

ok, she has a higher risk in the 20-30 age group. Sorry Trigglypuff, Covid-19 says you are not healthy at any size.

I won't touch upon the Vaers database and "reported" side effects, although I wouldn't mind the reported side effect of becoming the incredible hulk. . But at the same time, I am not going to accept the media's position that all is well either. From a statistical point of view, it is all about risks. Namely, how many real death or injuries are happening. And you'll also hear things like only 10% of the deaths are reported, and claims of 1%. A project veritas video claims doctors are forbidden to report adverse side effects. And then the CDC also erase the records of some 6000 more deaths.

So maybe this expected outcome thing here isn't easy. How many deletions are there, what is the true rate of fake reports, what is the true rate of unreported deaths. The numbers leave confusion, their dialog is "Trust me it won't hurt":

source:disney, modified by pinterest users

Outside of math, rarely anything is 100% sucess-unless your goal is 100% failure. In studies, quantitative results will usually be reported with a a mean, and various confidence intervals. For long term side effects there still is no data, for short term side effects we are left with extreme censorship. Instead of numbers, we are being left with mandates, propaganda, and the banhammer.

By the time covid passes, what are your chances of getting it [from day 0], and what are your odds of dying from it. We'll call these p1 and p2. Certainly p2 could be viewed more of a function of age, existing health problems, and geographic location-but at the upper limit, the normal person ages 18-30 chance of dying is 1/570 and is likely much much smaller. To date 43 million, about 1/8th of the us population, has contracted the virus so far. Roughly one in 4560 so far, and again that is assuming everyone age 85 and above who contracts covid dies of covid; I think I heard numbers in the single digits, like 6-8%. Whatever the true death rate is for >85, multiply 4560 by the inverse. (100%/6% is about 16.666...-so one in 76000 chance of death for ppl 18-30). Of course the number of infected Americans will continue to climb until we have actual herd immunity, so whatever numbers you end up with for now will be discounted a bit. but even if the ultimate number is 100%, it is still maybe 1 in 9500 (76000/8) for people aged 18-30.

source:toei animation/Akira Toriyama.

Now, let us consider how many people have taken the vaccine. John hopkins says 389 m doses in the USA. It fails to say how many are J&&, boosters, how many went in for just one dose and gave up, etc. Some news articals I read just splits it in half, I guess for convenience. So lets assume 195 million Americans are vaccinated. I am not really concerned about the 195m+43m, because I think the vaccine is pretty much a dud at this point.

Now lets ask the question, what do you think are the odds that the conspiracy theories are right? Keep in mind that to date, some 700k people have died due to "covid". One Canadian doctor suggests the vaccines are creating microclotting, and that within 3 years of this happening could lead to people dying of heart disease. No idea if that is true or not, not sure how many people would survive it, not sure how fast doctors can use stem cells to revasculate the circulatory system if it is true. But let's say that they have their scheme to wipe out 90% of the vaccinated which is what the conspiracies hold. 98.4% is the national survival rate of covid. 195m.984.9=172 692 000 dead from the vaccine, over 249x more than covid has killed thus far. But lets call this spot t0.

But now lets go into expected values.
Let's make an assumption that all people get covid19 who previously have not, and call this tmax. We effectively already assumed in t0 that no more people wil get covid.
Let's also assume that those who contracted covid didn't also get vaccinated (like DJT did).
National death rate of covid 1.6%.
case A: 693k+(125m-43m)(unvaxxed).016+195m(vaxxed)(.016)+195m(vaxxed)(.984)(.9))
Case B: 693k+(320m-43m)
case A: 693k+1312000 + 3120000 + 172692000=177817000
case B: 693k+(1312000 + 3120000)=5125000
caseA/Caseb=34.70x more deaths.

Should we do a case C where everyone but those previously infected takes the Vaccine? 693k+277m.984.9 =246004200.

Ignoring case C, we basically have a spectrum where if the conspiracy theorist are correct, there will be some 35-250x extra deaths. Let's consider the multiplicative inverse as a percent. Roughly 0.4-2.88%. If you believe, and this is a personal decision, that there is any truth to these conspiracy and that the chance they are right exceeds .4% (or definitely more than 3.%) then you have mathematically justify not taking the vaccine. Certainly you can play with other percentages, you could go back and change the death rate from 90% (.9) to 70%, or as well see shortly 50%, and find a model you think is more realistic. True, beliefs are not proofs. But you don't have to accept the reality as purely one way or the other either as the truth Tzars are doing now;they rule you either side with the "science" or ban you as a "fact" denying conspiracy nut case. You can consider both cases weighted on the degree you belief the alternate narrative is true...and they'll still ban you. Your conviction that there is some substance to the claimed ambitions of the Malthusians can now be expressed mathematically, which might help the reader escape the binary paradigm they are being trapped in by the truth Tzars. People on social media are allowed to believe in Big foot, Ghosts, aliens, chupacobra, giants, the loch ness monster, were-animals to 100% certainty, but the truth Tzars hold that we're not allowed to think that there is as much as a .4% chance that the known Malthusians obsessed with population control, spending billions on such programs, might live up to their previously professed politics and "philanthropy"? Personally, it is hard for me to put a figure on how much doubt I have (sarcasm).

But I don't hold these conspiratorial beliefs to any conviction either. We just have to be mindful of them, and continue to discover the truth without self-injury.

And finally we get to the point I was intending to blog upon. Usually when it comes to importing immigrants en mass, it is a group related to the colibra project and/or George Soros. Keep in mind that I said the colibra project which is connected to facebook and others in silicon valley. During a early blog in maybe jan/feb 2020, I noted how close the covid outbreak was to the end of the failed impeachment efforts. And as we see from the Maricopa county Audit, some 95% of the ballots coming in after Nov 3rd had illegible scribbles for signatures-compared to just 5% before-other examples of absentee ballot fraud has been found in Fulton County Ga also where on one weekend 24 people deposited 1900 ballots into [zuckerberg] drop boxes. I wouldn't put it past the SF elitists to try to bring in a biological attack to get rid of the Donald Trump presidency, and hence why they do not want us to discover the truth. There is a chance they wanted it to look natural, and not something from a lab....even after covid broke out they tried to cover up the lab leak theory.

So getting onto the point Michael Adams made a post of natural news. Some of Michael Adam's reporting is too fantastical for me to believe, and usually I don't bother reading his stuff. It is a shame he's not into producing movies or pitching stories lines in hollywood. Right or wrong, the guy has talent. See

It is hard for me to know who is really introducing what points in his article. He relies on darpa, a group called DRASTIC, Lara Logan, and current events like Oregons recruiting for a quarantine strike force. But the general idea is that documents from darpa/ drastic analysis, reveal that Fauci/ecohealth alliance was spreading covid-19 is just stage one in a plan-and they they were planning the multiple stage scheme althrough Darpa who had to turn them down on funding. The Ultimately goal is China going to release an aerosol through drones (I'm not sure how realistic the delivery mechanisms are, let alone how well they can be stored) of a modified MERs virus that he argues is normally capable of killing 30% of those infected. The virus is being smuggled in through our southern border-and that the cartels have been promised by china control over the southern US-essentially a similar concept to my june 2019 blog. That the reason, he avers, why Biden is forcing 70% of the population to get vaccinated is the argument that the covid vaccine weakens the immune system, increasing the death rate to 50%. And that it isn't just any 70%, but our military, [our health care workers, our top companies,...those most likely to get necessary things done quickly, professionally, and on scale] and he plays into other fear pron such as gun confiscation, executions, and locking away political prisoners. Well, actually, I am one of many examples of a [former] political prisoners created by Biden-and the lt Colonel who criticize his superior officers for the Afghanistan failure is now a political prisoner too. The goal is to destroy the petrodollar-which I think it turning us into a foreign owned feudal system-and bring America to ruin. [Fail Fail Fail].

Anyways, The billionaires [and presumed malthusians] have their private islands, giant farms, and bunkers where they can/have escape to, and really don't have much reason to fear. Many don't need to get vaxxed in their hideouts, as they force their own employees too.


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