36 Advanced Civilization In The Milky Way?
As we learn more about the Universe we get better at estimating how many civilizations could be in it. The newest estimate says we could be one of 36 civilization in the Milky Way.
Image by Stefan Keller from Pixabay
- Be also sure to check out my other posts and follow me @kralizec and subscribe to my Youtube channel at Kralizec Gaming Youtube Channel
One of the questions many ponder whenever they look at the night sky is – is there anyone else out there? Are there any other civilizations full of intelligent beings that would be similar to us? Or, are we alone? This seemingly simple question is much harder to answer than anyone expected. We just do not have enough information. So, our estimates can range from no civilizations out there to billions of civilizations just in our galaxy.
But our knowledge about the Universe continues to grow so experts can try to create more sophisticated estimates of the number of CETIs (Communicating Extra-Terrestrial Intelligents) civilizations out there without looking like complete buffoons. Recently, a team led by Christopher Conselice from the University of Nottingham decided to give it a try.
Conselice's team tried a different approach that takes evolution at the cosmic scale into account. They started with a presupposition that life evolves on other habitable planets similarly to how it evolved on Earth. And they ended with a conservative estimate that there could be 36 active, intelligent civilizations capable of communicating. They decided to call their calculation “Astrobiological Copernican Limit”.
The study authors say that estimating the numbers of alien civilizations is usually based on determining the values of key variables. But these constantly change. Conselice and his colleagues decided to simplify these variables calling them Weak and Strong Astrobiological Copernican conditions. They take into account, for example, the history of how stars were created in galaxies, the metallicity of stars, or the probability of Earth-type planets being in the habitable zone.
Their thought experiment shows that the most important thing for these estimates is for how long such civilizations can be active in their communication – or more precisely for how long such civilizations show their existence through radio signals or other types of electromagnetic radiation. And if alien technological civilizations last for as long the ones we have then there should be around 36 such civilizations should be in the Milky Way.
Conselice and his coworkers also think that if such civilizations are evenly spread across the Milky Way then the closest one should be roughly 17 thousand light-years away from us and most likely exist in a solar system with a red dwarf star. And most likely, we do not have a chance to discover such a civilization.
Sources:
- https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ab8225
- https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/news/research-sheds-new-light-on-intelligent-life-existing-across-the-galaxy
- If you like the content I’m producing about science maybe you will like the content I produce about gaming as well! Be sure to check out my other posts!
@tipu curate 2 :)
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 14/28)
Thank you kind sir :)
I think that so many assumptions are made in these "estimates" and we really don't have a clue how many civilizations there may (or may not) be. I suppose we are to the point where we can make an order of magnitude estimate on how many planets are out there that might be capable of supporting Earth-like life (right size, right distance from their star, etc.). But even with the right conditions, how likely is life to develop...and evolve sufficiently...and become technologically advanced... I don't think we have anything resembling an accurate idea of those factors.
Obviously there was a ton of assumptions made. But it is the best scientific estimate we have to date :)
That's one of the possible scenarios that Michio Kaku often raises. I even remember he mentioned that a kid once suggested him something he interpreted as there might be some "intergalactic civilizations". I find this subject of exobiology and extraterrestrial intelligent life kind of fascinating.
As for intergalactic civilizations - I doubt those exist. At least if (and it seems to be the case) faster than light-speed travel is impossible. Even an intergalactic civilization would most likely be more a collection of individual civilizations that communicate at a semi-regular basis but the distances between galaxies are just too large to realistically have a functioning single civilization.
I agree. That's what he said, though. He first contemplated three types of alien civilizations. In simple terms: those that live on a single planet, those that can move from star to star, and those that can travel throughout the galaxy. He then came up with an anecdote about a kid who made him think about the possibility of a type 4 alien civilization, the intergalactic one.