Day 1 problem of my Math mini-contest 😎

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Math mini-contest problem for Day 1 😎

Rules at https://peakd.com/@savvyplayer/the-official-rules-for-my

Win 1 HIVE for correctly answering first! 🥇



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12 comments
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10%

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(Edited)

I think what you did was multiply the two probabilities together as if they were independent events. That doesn't seem right to me. Something like flipping a coin twice would be two independent events. Whichever result the first coin toss is, heads or tails, has no effect on the outcome of the second flip.
In @savvyplayer's problem the first day has a 50% chance. Either the user changes the profile picture or the user doesn't. If the user does change the picture the first day than that event effects the second day event's probability by negating the possibility of a 60% chance of changing the picture within both days.

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No, what I did was consider everything as an independent event. I didn't feel like thinking too much. Is it possible for someone to change on day 1 and 2? Yes but I am not counting it.
Day 1 = 50%
Day 1+2 = 60%
60%-50%=10% = % on Day 2.

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O.K. Now you've shown your work so nobody else needs to try reverse engineering what you might have done to arrive at your answer. 😀

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I shall look at the answers tomorrow (at 3:00 P.M., GMT+8), then announce the participant with the correct answer for this Math problem (if there is one)! 😎

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(Edited)

Based on the wording of the question it seems to be a percent difference problem. 50% first day to 60% the second day. We're not calculating probability that the picture will actually change.

Increase = New Number - Original Number.

0.1 = 0.6 - 0.5

0.1 / 0.5 = 0.2 x 100 = 20%

20% chance on second day

It's past 5 a.m. here and I used up most of my math juice working on a fan theory about Barney Miller. Yes, I am also still working on part 2 of that theoretical d.buzz post. I can do both.

I blame the Ziggy handlink I have to keep rattling and banging if this probability isn't correct. I bought it from some government auction. Cheap piece of crap.

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This was hard... I knew the answer is 0.1 (%10,) but I didn't know why I came to that conclusion. It's been too long since I solved a problem like this. I had to research it, and being OCD-driven, I spent too much time trying to make sure my answer was correct.

If we have A & B, as probabilities of two mutually exclusive events. C being the probability that either A or B occurred: C = A + B.

%60 = %50 + X
X = %60 - %50
X = %10


I might be wrong though, it's been long since I used the simple probability equations like this one.

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Answer for Day 1 Problem

Short answer: Answer cannot be determined due to insufficient given.
Long answer: There is not enough data on the given to determine the chance of the user changing their profile picture on Day 2, unless it specifies that the user did not change the profile picture on the first day.

If the user changes his profile picture on the first day, there is nothing on the given that says whether it will affect the chance of the user changing their picture on the second day.

If the user has not changed their picture on the first day, then through conditional probability, we say that the chance the user changes his picture on the second day is 20%. However, if the user did change their picture on the first day, then the chance of the user changing the picture on the second day is unknown.

Though nobody answered that the given is simply insufficient, I consider @holovision the winner because they actually pointed out that the chance of the user changing their profile picture on the first day does not affect the chance of the user changing the picture again of the second day.

Winner: @holovision 🏅

1 HIVE has been sent to @holovision's account. 💰

Mentions: @jfang003, @ahmadmanga, @hiveans (and special mention @chrisrice)

Thank you for participating! 😀

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Thanks. That was a good question. I think we all assumed that there was an answer and that's not always the case. Something to keep in mind for all future contest questions.😀

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Actually, I forgot to say that the D.Buzz user in the problem did not change their profile picture on the first day. Since an hour has passed before I realized it, I decided that I should leave the problem as is without editing. 😅

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