What could happen to oil demand if the Ukraine-Russia war drags on?

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There is a probability that if this war between Russia and Ukraine is prolonged, approximately 1 million barrels of oil per day of the daily world demand could be eliminated from the world oil market.

It is only 7 days into the conflict, and the results are already quite catastrophic, the human and material losses put a tinge of grief and pain, since with all that is being lost and no peace agreement is in sight in the short term between the two parties involved. From my personal opinion I think that if the conflict continues to be active there will be negative economic consequences, one of the reasons for the loss of world demand for crude oil is because the countries involved such as Ukraine and Russia are losing the normality that makes there is a natural demand for oil consumption.

Many may think that in war there is always an increase in the demand for oil due to the war itself, however this is a one-off event, while a state of infrastructure recovery may cause the demand for crude oil to be gradually minimized.

It is evident that of the affected countries the one that is being most affected in this decrease in the demand for oil is Ukraine since it is the invaded country and clearly affected, however to a lesser extent Russia will also be somewhat affected by this demand, since by means of the economic sanctions imposed by the West Russia will not be able to trade freely and will lose a normality of the common activities among its citizens.

In conclusion we can say that the analysis of the demand for oil during a war is quite complex, because although it is true that war tanks, planes, ships and other logistics need fuel (oil), it is also true that during a war the normality of common activities such as tourism, going to school, having active companies and industries, among other activities, is lost, and losing this normality also decreases the demand among the actors in the conflict.

However, in a global scenario we have seen how there is an increase in the price of oil, since Russia is a major producer and marketer of hydrocarbons, and being involved in this conflict, undoubtedly there will be a fear that Russia can meet its production quota, especially considering the magnitude of economic sanctions that are underway and those that are to come for the Russian country.



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Sorry, but this article doesn't make sense to me.

The term "supply" refers to the amount of oil produced.

"Demand" refers to the desire to consume oil.

The war decreased the supply of oil. Because of the decrease in supply, prices have started to rise rapidly.

Since oil is a limited resource and since it causes pollution, a decrease in demand is a good thing. This is why people are putting up solar panels, wind farms and taking other steps to decrease fuel consumption.

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That's your opinion, but I don't share it either, it doesn't make sense to me either. Thanks for sharing your comment in this post.

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