RE: Coronavirus is the expected black swan event

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Dear @ritxi

It's hard to disagree with you. Coronavirus is surely a black swan. However I would argue if it has been expected or not. My impression was that majority of people and investors were still very bullish at the beginning of the year. And many did not expect such a downturn. Anyway that's just my own little impression.

The macro view says to us that there are 10-year megacycles of the world economy.

Indeed. However one thing we need to remember that all previous cycles were very different from current ones. Never in the history central banks were as active as they are now. So hatever we've learned from the past - may not apply to current situation.

Why? Because the "new money" was used to purchase stocks. So, everything looked great again.

Indeed. Most of those newly printed cheap money ended up on stock markets (via REPO market). Hardly any of it will end up in real economy, where lack of liquidity is also becoming a problem.

Upvoted already,
Yours, Piotr



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Hi @crypto.piotr,
thanx for stopping by. I am concerned about the central banks doing. Surely, their short-term help might avert the disaster, but where are the limits of the new money supply? Probably there are no limits. But their game can be played again and again for a few more decades I am sure of it. But then what...

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I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your comment. Big thx.
Cheers, Piotr

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