The prediction of powerful solar flares is now possible in advance

in hive-174578 •  5 days ago 


As you know, seeing the Sun with your open eyes is very difficult due its powerful sunlight, it is also impossible to see solar flares that occur over there. Also there is another reason that make the solar flares invisible is the distance between the Sun and earth. However those powerful solar flares can be seen using telescope, but I don’t know whether it is possible from earth or not becuase I don’t have a telescope. I think if it is possible to see solar flares using telescope from the earth, then it must be a powerful telescope. Otherwise, a simple telescope may not help you see solar flares from earth.

With the help of a telescope, you can see the solar flare, but it can't help you predict when the solar flare is about to happen in future. Powerful Solar flares contain charged particles and a lot of radiation that can reach earth in just 8 minutes and it is very difficult to take actions in such a short time. So It can destroy sattellites, spacecraft, and have bad effects on astronauts’ health. Not only that, it can also distrub radio communication on the earth. Therefore it is necessary to forecast a solar flare in advance. But it is only possible when you know its life-cycle.

“A big flare is a potential risk to our society,” says Kanya Kusano at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research in Japan. “Therefore the prediction of solar flares is crucial.”

According to this article, Kusano and his colleagues came with a new method called “kappa-scheme” that help scientists forecast when a solar flare is about to happen. According to them, It is more authentic than previous methods. Scientists have already used this method to analyze the data collected by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory from 2008 to 2019. They found that “kappa-scheme” predicted most large flares a day in advance.

Previous methods were also capable to predict solar flares but their success rate was only 50 percent. While the latest method “kappa-scheme” successfully forecasted seven among nine large solar flares. That means the latest method is more capable to provide accurate data than previous methods. They hope it can give better result in future.

The new method “kappa-scheme” predicts a solar flare depending on strong magnetic fields. The explaination is given here:

Before a flare begins, electric currents flow along the sun’s magnetic field lines. When two of these lines overlap, they undergo a process known as reconnection, snapping the lines together and releasing a vast amount of energy – a solar flare.

Kusano believes that the new method will function effectively to forecast large solar flares in advance.

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