I expressed my thoughts on Rebellion Expansion few days ago and now we have a concrete description on how the sale + mechanics will work out. Most of the content should not come as a surprise to any players who have been following the updates through Town Halls and other official channels. I'm very happy to see many of the suggestions I made being implemented. I don't think @yabapmatt saw my article. I think my ideas on what Rebellion should be like converged with the plans independently made by Steem Monsters Corp.

Rebellion Announcement + Town Hall

It is best to read the announcement and later refer to the Town Hall for additional questions. There many new changes to the system we are used to I consider these changes to be either welcome improvements or alternatives that are just as good as the old ways. I will summarize them to save you even more time.

• There will be 2 Promo Cards
• Priced at 5000 CREDITS or 5000 DEC
• VOUCHERs can be spent to get a discount (upto 20%)
• 5 VOUCHERs needed for maximum discount
• Bulk purchases only receive 5% (for 100 Packs) , 10% (for 500 Packs), 15% (for 2000 Packs) Bonus Packs
• Each of the Bonus Packs need 5 VOUCHERs to be claimed
• Airdrops will be handled in a completely new Lore integrated mechanic

We are looking at 5X increase of VOCUHER costs. It does not make much sense to pass out on a discount or Bonus Packs. I don't think the existence of VOCUHERs will positively or negatively affect the demand for Rebellion Booster Packs. What I expect is a high number of VOCUHERs burnt as a result of Rebellion Expansion.

Expected Price Action on DEX

I was waiting to see some news of Land to see a price increase for VOCUHERs. Rebellion announcement came even before that. I'm starting to think that Steem Monsters Corp. is in a far more dire conditions financially. Why else would they focus this much on Rebellion while we experience the bear market lows with many players struggling to gather funds to invest. I have hardly saved some crypto for Land 1.5 and I will have to sit out on Rebellion Presale.

There is Another Way to Look At This

Keep in mind that this is speculation. I have zero insider communications or mind reading abilities. I want you to think of how you would have purchased Rebellion Booster Packs. Most likely you would have spent your cryptocurrency. Savvy investors would go for a DEC purchase through a DEX. Other may have opt to pay @splinterlands to take care of the complexity. A significant portion of them could send cryptocurrency that are not stablecoins. These cryptocurrencies can be HODLed or even staked in some cases.

If Steem Monsters Corp. managed to collect a considerable sum of crypto and managed to not sell them by relying on stablecoins + fiat + potential VC investments, the company could end up with millions of extra revenue. The lower the markets are, higher the multiplier will be. Even if this was not an intentional strategy, it is a scenario that can play out.

Expect Higher SPS Staking APR

I don't think we have seen the best part of VOUCHER price movements. @splinterlands is targeting VOUCHER value at 20 cents. It is not guaranteed for the price to reach that level just as DEC is not guaranteed to reach $0.001 "soft peg". Most likely the market rate will remain slightly lower that the intended price for VOUCHERs. There is no process of creating a asset backed stablecoin-esque effect. All we have is the market forces on HIVE-Engine and Tribaldex. Both of these DEXs are used by more crypto savvy investors. They know how to do research. What held back the price of VOUCHERs is the lack of sinks and utility while having ample inflation via SPS staking rewards.

Once the VOUCHER price reach higher (5X - 6X is possible IMO), we will have an APR that is several times higher than what we are experiencing at the moment. Those who stake SPS are currently being Airdropped GLX. It is an year long Airdrop and we are close to the end of it. VOUCHER price increase could make up for the cessation of GLX Airdrop.

VOUCHER equivalent of Genesis League Sports platform is GLGT. There were some use cases proposed; but I don't know of anything that has been finalized. Aside from buying Packs, there is no use case for GLGT at the moment. It doesn't help that a Pack is priced at $10 with no gameplay. It is difficult to make sales happen.

Scheduled Pack Burning Could Be Good

Unsold Packs is a loss of potential revenue for @splinterlands (this time DAO will be earning 50% of the revenue). Potential revenue is not the same as revenue. Players can decide not to buy any Packs directly from within the game and opt to buy from secondary markets or buy Cards from the market. We saw this play out with Chaos Legion. If anyone had their faith shaken because of past performance, scheduled burns can provide a reassurance prompting them to invest more.

Happy Gaming! Happy Investing!

Posted Using InLeo Alpha