$125 TRILLION Needed In Money Printing This Decade

in LeoFinance2 months ago (edited)

This means there is still a long way to go this decade. Right now, the Central Banks around the world are at about $30 trillion. It puts us about a quarter of the way to the level required throughout this decade. In fact, there is a chance this number grows to $150 trillion.

Many people are having their heads explode at this one. However, this amount is REQUIRED and not an option. By the end of this article you will see what we mean.

Lessons From Over-Populationists

Do you remember this? Take a look at YouTube and you will see a number of videos talking about the threat of overpopulation to the planet.

Many of these videos were from the early part of this last decade like this one.

This was the mindset. In fact, we heard this over the past 50 years. Projections were that the planet would hit 11-14 billion people. Many theorized we could not house that many.

There were some voices who were calling these projects overexaggerated and the entire idea nonsense. It was time to leave the 1970s where this idea originated from.

So what happened?

Over the last few years, people started to realize that many countries were facing the exact opposite problem: falling populations. For the last couple decades, the world watched Japan struggle with this issue. However, much of Western Europe, South Korea, Russian, and Canada quickly found their fertility rates dropping.

The situation culminated with China's first population decline in over 70 years (even though the government claims that has a slight increase). Also, a number of researchers claim the fertility rate is actually 1.08, close to South Korea as opposed to the 1.6 put forth by the government.

Suddenly the world's largest populated nation was facing the fastest aging population in the history of the planet. This altered the entire outlook for the global situation.

Now, people who espouse the over-population line are nearly laughed at. They simply are holding onto an old idea that dates back decades.

Inflationists

Inflationists like Peter Schiff are in their glory right now. For the first time, we can see noticeable inflation. They take to the talk shows and online articles espousing how we are now on the path to hyper-inflation. Of course, they have been tooting the same horn for decades, without much success.

What is interesting is that it took a perfect storm to get it. This was a once in a lifetime opportunity for them. Of course, it took shutting down much of the global economy, commodity disruption due to ag, mining, and drilling closures, and a stoppage of global trade. Hence, products did not travel freely around the world, forcing consumers to pay for higher priced good.

At the same time, people were locked home with nothing to do. Many still had money coming in and it was burning a hole in their pocket. Since going out to eat three times a week was not an option, people decided to spend. Home modeling, car sales, and other durable goods were ordered. It is estimated that orders for these products pulled forward two years worth of business.

Hence we have a front end loaded economy. Retailers suffered due to the entire global supply chain shutting down which meant they did not want to be without product. Orders went through the roof just trying to fill the shelves. As the supply chain reopens, which is happening now, the products will be arriving.

The question is will the demand still be there. As people get their fill, they are not going to head back for more. Certain industries such as automobiles are stacking up due to chip shortages so it looks like they have great demand. That might be skewed because of the supply issue. Once they start to roll those vehicles out, will they find the overproduced?

Age Of Hyper-Deflation

Many are predicting the economy will slow. This has happened coming out of every recession since the 1960s. When the bottom hits, we often emerge due to stimulus which is a jolt for the economy. However, after that wears off, things head south, usually bringing more stimulus. This dance happens 3 times in total before the economy starts to head up for good.

We are likely seeing the inflationists last stand forever. Once this inflationary cycle is processed through, it is over likely for good. The next era is something that most are ill-prepared for.

The age of exponential technological growth is upon us. This is going to carry us through the 2020s and into the next decade. By 2035 much of our world will be different due to technology. We can already see some of what will cause that impact.

This is just a quick list:

  • 3-D printing
  • Autonomous Vehicles
  • Renewable Energy
  • Blockchain/Cryptocurrency
  • Climate Controlled Farming
  • Robotics
  • Drones
  • Image Recognition
  • RPA
  • Ubiquitous Internet
  • AI
  • Advanced Teleconferencing

There are dozens of other in the fields such as bio-tech and the material sciences.

All of us heard of the exponential growth curve. Here is one for technology:

image.png
Source

This is a simple illustration of what we are going to see over the next couple decades. We already know that we can do things using less time than 20 years ago. Technology does that for us.

Now here is the vital point: technology by its very nature is deflationary. Technology drives the cost of things down.

Hence, if we are on an exponential technology growth curve, we are also on an exponential deflationary curve. As technology skyrockets as it passes the elbow, probably around the middle of the decade, we will see deflationary pressures accelerate. The percentage of the economy already affected by this is growing each year.

Many feel that inflation is a bad thing. They get upset when the cost of housing goes up. With what is coming, just wait until the cost of housing goes down and see how you feel about it. Many believe it is a good thing until the realize they have no job to pay for the house.

Technology is going to obliterate jobs. Again, people find this is hard to believe looking at present numbers but it is an accelerating situation.

Here are two articles found with a quick search. We do not have to go far to find how rapidly automation is entering.

This same story is being told all over the world. We only need to look at Japan over the past 30 years to see what it is like to live in that environment. No worries though, everyone will see it by the end of this decade.

Technology is a hungry bear. It takes a lot of money to feed it. Think about all the funding required to produce what we already use on a daily basis. Just look at the above list of technologies and try to estimate how much money is needed to feed that.

For example, it is estimated that the Internet of Energy will cost $1.75 trillion in the United States alone even with solar energy costs declining by 89% in the last decade. Then we have hundreds of billions in satellites and associated rocketry.

Many talk about asteroid mining because of the quadrillions that are estimated in raw minerals. However, there is something closer to home that could goes below: sea mining. The Chinese just completed a trial of a 1,300 meter seabed floor by a deep sea mining vehicle. There is a price tag of a few hundred billion once everyone starts rushing into it.

Think this is foolish, check out this map with the estimated mineral deposits. We are looking at trillions of dollars there.

Information technology traditionally deflated at a rate about 30% per year. This is a number that is likely going to increase due to artificial intelligence. Nobody is quite sure what rate we are moving at but the next video should give an idea of how things are moving.

This is an AI system that translates natural language into code. Here we see it designing a video game.

So much for the learn to code idea.

By 2030, the idea of hyper-inflation will be as out-dated of over-populationism is now. What was a commonly held belief a decade ago is now being proven obsolete.

By the way, aging populations around the world are also deflationary. They people are going to be contributing less to the economies over the next two decades while requiring a lot more in the way of social services.


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So much technology to invest in... It's no wonder we needed to print that much money. I'm also concerned with the jobs that's going to be lost because of technology, and that too needed tons of money to be addressed. So I think $125 trillion is still a conservative estimate.

I'm also concerned with the jobs that's going to be lost because of technology,

I think that machines will do things instead of the people for the people, so many people will not need jobs. Automation is a solution, not an enemy. But this is probably just/only my opinion.

Automation is a solution, not an enemy.

I agree with you on this. It will, however, create a lot of disruption to society. We have not approached how to resolve it.

Personally I think DAOs and cryptocurrencies will hold the key but many are going to pursue the UBI route.

Either way there will have to be changes.

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It could be. A skyrocketing deflationary rate in the tech area along with it eating up, say 15%-20% of the economy could make that true. That said, I dont think we see this percentage in the US economy before 2030. Also, the global economy lags greatly in this area. Right now it is 3%-4%, about half the US.

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Technology drives the cost of things down.

That is the benefit of the tech, while the food need increase, without bio tech, people will suffer from hunger. By using bio tech, the production increases and the cost decreases.


Posted via proofofbrain.io

we dont even need biotech yet. we just need to stop throwing away perfectly good food because it does not fit in the supermarket. for example big farmers throw away slightly bent cucumbers because it needs more space and supermarkets wont buy it + they have exclusivity contract so they cant sell it elsewhere

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There is no doubt there is a ton of waste. That we cant deny. It is said the US throws out 25% of what is creates.

There is however a distribution problem. Climate controlled and vertical farming could help to get food production closer to where it is consumed. If we can do that, then the area that are near starvation will have access to what they need.

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i have seen food mountains few kilometers from poor towns. they simply dont want to give free food to people who need it.

i cant recall the name, but there is a good documentary about food waste. its a few years old now, but things didnt change much

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There is no doubt that the food production globally can serve the entire population. I cant guess how much is wasted globally but a large percentage. It wouldnt surprise me if up to 30% ended up being thrown away.

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Food production has increased steadily the last 100 years. Starvation rates are going down albeit are high in some areas.

We are feeding more people than every before, it is just not distributed well.

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technology already capable of providing us with our basic needs. its just the old system which holds back progress because the population is not ready, or the politicians want to enjoy the slave labour for a few more years

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There is a lot to be said for that. The system is slow to adapt. It is filled with politicians, bureaucrats, and inefficient corporations that seek only to extract.

We also have people who are slow to change their mindsets.

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Well interest rates were already almost rock bottom before the pandemic since the government never really let the economy recover fully. With the velocity of money dropping, they need more money in the economy and that is why QE to reduce interest rates to spur more borrowing happened. I just don't see how interest rates will go up that much despite the amount being printed. At this rate, I think they are just trying to lower the faith and confidence in the US dollar and in that case then inflation can occur.

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Isn't it interesting that as interest rates are falling lending is contracting?

The FED isnt going to raise, they are backed into a corner.

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I think the more they improve on 3D printing it is really going to be a game changer for a lot of things. If we can get more durable and versatile medium into the hands of creators there will be little that needs to be purchased in the future. Molding plastics that can be as hard as metal into fasteners and other components would turn things on end.

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3-D printing is one that holds great promise. We are going to see a lot of advancements in that field over the next 5-7 years. It is close to being "its time".

There is already terrific penetration in the aeronautical industry. I am interested to see where it goes with construction.

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Yeah, I agree with that. About five years ago it just seemed really gimmicky to me, but now I am starting to see the potential as they improve upon the materials and technology.

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Amazing what 5 years of development does to "gimmicky" industries.

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Some scary numbers that are required but good for crypto in the next few years as we will be ahead of the inflation curve. I know everyone gets excited about technology and the impact it might have which we already know many will be unemployed. We just have to watch it play out and make sure we have enough for ourselves and the generations that follow.

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There are going to be some large numbers required. This is what most people are not aware of.

Cryptocurrency is in a fine position because we keep generating more money each day, that can be used for constructive purposes. As the Network Effect grows with more users, this will accelerate.

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good info. great job