Technology: Going To Put Enormous Pressure On Real Estate

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One thing about technology, when it starts moving, it goes fast and hard.

We are seeing a lot of advancement that affects almost every industry under the sun. There is little that is not being impacted by technology and, in most instances, it is going to be unbelievable to people.

Here is a question to all real estate people out there: have you planned for the day when real estate is 90% less than it is now?

How will this affect your portfolio? What will this do to your holdings? Is this even something you have considered?

For the most part, I would say that the majority have not. With such rapid change, it might be best to tread lightly.

Of course, most will question why should we plan for something that never came close to happening? After all, a 90% collapse in global real estate is absurd.

Or is it.

Let us see how quickly things can move.

Hadrian X is a bricklaying robot that is being worked on. The goal is to increase the pace at which buildings can be constructed as well as reduce costs.

The project was stared in 2015 and received a $2 million investment in 2017. In the past 5 years, incredible progress was made. However, in the last couple, things are being taken to a new level.

In June this year, FBR said Hadrian X could lay more than 200 blocks an hour, a 300% increase in speed compared with February 2019.

Notice the numbers. In 15 months, we saw a 300% improvement in the number of bricks that it can lay in an hour. As we know with exponential progress, this is likely to be only the beginning. If this can be duplicated another couple times, at the same pace, and we will see huge gains.

Now the robot is able to build a two story building. This is the first time it achieved this.

As we can see in the video, it is quite an accomplishment. Imagine the possibilities when it comes to building projects such as apartment complexes and condominiums.

In the past, I wrote about the progress being made with 3D printers that are used to construct houses. That is another area that is making rapid progress.

The challenge with this is that we are dealing under the laws of informational technology. Both this robot and 3D printers have the ability to see the same curve that we saw computers and laser printers. What starts out, right now, as something that is prototyping, quickly becomes something that is a serious threat as previous methodologies are eliminated.

So, what will this look like in another 10-15 years? As it applies to Hadrian X, this is 2-3 times the life of the entire project. The progress made thus far is a drop in the bucket compared to where things will be in the next 5 years, let alone 10.

How does this apply to real estate? What will happen if an existing house could be torn down and built for 90% less than what the house next to it is going for? Of course, this will depend upon the value of the land it is built upon, but the point remains clear: prices will drop.

The simple reality is that when technology enters an industry, prices are crushed. This is why many believe we are moving towards a zero, or near zero margin economy.

Since the real estate market is worth hundreds of trillions of dollars, it is ripe for complete disruption.

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Real estates price will be more stable though the cost of production is getting lower. The value of real estates do not depend on the cost of production but in the demand, artistic, and location.

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Demand is obviously there because we have a global housing shortage. However, as it becomes cheaper, this will reverse course. And if builders are like most other industries, the ability to properly forecast development is going to miss. Hence, they are likely to keep building until there is a glut, just like what the oil companies did.

As for location, that is true...for now. However, we are already seeing a shift due to the work from home situation. What happens when our world is mostly virtual? How important will physical location be?

It is like with cars...many feel that brand is important. That is because they still own them. When automated "robotaxis" are the norm, will it matter? After all, does anyone care who manufactures the taxi, bus, or railcar they are riding in?

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Your posts assume and imply that technology and abundance of, is somehow a gift, available to everyone. This is flawed thinking. Price of housing is going in the opposite direction because opportunity for masses (wage growth) is heavily controlled by the gatekeepers.

Technology obviously makes it cheaper to manufacture and is affecting a lot of industries but again, it's not granted to all. China for example has mastered the art of construction assisted by automation, yet bridges, motorways, buildings, didn't suddenly become cheap. The truth is that they now dominate those markets and their Belt & Road initiative is the Beast that many other nations now fear.

All in all, technology disrupts, but it's who controls it that then reigns supreme. Amazon as another example, didn't suddenly make cloud storage cheap or free for all with their AWS system. They made it available to all, but then those profits are what made Bezos the richest man on Earth.

Closer to home, tokens don't automatically have value unless others agree they have value. In a past posts you made point that early adopters are "angel investors" in a sense. Which is true because early birds capture that asset cheap and the rest that buy in later grant those early birds return on their investment. So even here in crypto abundance doesn't mean instant wealth to all and even if an asset is completely virtual it still has to have use in the material world and ability to function (infrastructure) in our human world.

Bottom line: there's always a gatekeeper.
'Abundance of nothing' is the only thing you could ever capture without a higher authority having a say.


Bottom line: there's always a gatekeeper.

Who is the gatekeep for long distance communications? Years ago, it was the major telephone companies. Today, who dominates that market? How many different ways are there to communicate with someone on the other side of the world? Hundreds? Thousands? There are a plethora of messenger applications, many different cloud storage applications, programs, SMS, and who knows how many websites that accept commenting or posting of information.

Who is the gatekeeper now with the transfer of money? Isnt it true that we can use hundreds of different tokens to send value from point A to point B without a gatekeeper?

You could make the case, especially with the communication, that each of those applications is a gatekeeper. This is true. However, in its entirety, there is not a single gatekeeper. Plus, these are two examples that changed within the last 10 years. A decade ago, AT&T still had a thriving long distance service. Now, it is not much if anything.

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Well see that's all within the system. I agree with your points that choice is absolutely plentifull. Who I see as the gatekeepers though is those that control the fundamentals. Telecommunications in any nation (the infrastructure) are controlled by a few top dogs. Even if there are many providers of services, they utilise the copper or optical fiber of big dogs.

If we look at internet, and the networks which live on it. Electricity is then the base fundamental, which coincidentally, is a looming issue with crypto mining (specially BTC) so then again there's a gatekeeper that has the ultimate power. Literally and figuratively.

Elites have controlled society since the beginning of civilisation. That's not going to change just because assets are digital or virtual. To quote you again "BioLink into our physical system is coming." So again, whoever controls the infrastructure of that, controls the acquired wealth.. of our thoughts and intentions.

Transhumanism is not if or when.. but how fast til complete.
At which point the meaning of wealth might not be physical assets.
But actually how many other minds an elite siphons from.

Literally the last untapped asset.

So in that future: Original Humans..
Will likely still continue to play with old world shit.
Unknowing what their existence as consumers is fuelling.

EARTH the old world sending virtual assets to some Elite Astronautic Expedition on a distant planet. Consciousness by then realised as THE SUPREME NETWORK of data transmission. Which it is. Ai likely The Grand Oracle of it all. At which point... we likely open up the greatest Pandora's Box.

Anyway I think I'm digressing too much now.
My point: A long time if ever, for Utopian Dream World where all win.

Transhumanism is not if or when.. but how fast til complete.

Interesting way of stating it. I have seen it put many ways but not quite that concisely.

So again, whoever controls the infrastructure of that, controls the acquired wealth.. of our thoughts and intentions.

This is certainly true. However, that is why delving down to each layer if vital. As you said, with telecommunications were controlled by the ones who controlled the lines run under the ground. Here we are starting to see another change. That old model is not working for them so well.

In my journeys, each layer is coming under attack. As we saw with the music industry, the change can happen very quickly. They were the gatekeepers of recorded music, controlling everything from production to distribution. Almost overnight things were changed completely. There are a number of things that could be following a similar path.

The major point is that anything that is centralized, lacks resiliency and is subject to being toppled, no matter how powerful in the moment. Right now the biggest fish in the world is the US Government (although a case could be made that the likes of Facebook and Google are quickly usurping that). There will come a time when that powerful entity implodes. It could be said that other governments will step in but there is a chance the nation-state model collapses the same way the monarchy concept did (for the most part).

Will we have a time when AI is in charge of everything? Most likely since we are already on that path anyway. I do agree a good case is made that this all if information anyway, the entire universe, thus is really AI to start with.

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Yeah that's a tremendous point on Ai and Universe comparison. You've hit the nail on the head. I believe that also. Existentially, I see INTELLIGENCE as the ultimate force in relation to systems and technology. We as humans then, are likely a stepping stone.

Therefore as mere mortals, merging with it, via transhumanism is the only logical path. I see that as already in effect. It's also a battle that is in play right now between USA and CHINA. The two super powers at the front of this new digital/virtual future/sentient (or brained) machines future.

This is obviously not in the next decade but one important point of NOW.. is that what others view as the strangest year: 2020, I view as YEAR ONE. Long into that highly technological future we will immortalise this year as the year the status quo was reset and when that new digital front truly became the new system. Governments around the world are playing catch-up with China actually.

It's a long power struggle of who emerges as the beneficiaries. Not The People is the likely sad truth. Even the recent post from the Original Dan has voiced how much this world has changed. Tyranny of the Status Quo might be a shocking revelation, but IMO, in actuality, all that happened is that the system revealed itself for it's true form.

The Elites are the only ones that the system serves.

Of course there's still opportunity for us all and we take the crumbs if we can.. and rise in rank if we have that potential. I just don't believe that the system and society has ever worked for the masses. It's the top that win.

I value your viewpoint and appreciate discussion.
As I've said before I see you as The Guru of HIVE.
Your videos are excellent content.

BTW: Now that @dan VOICED himself on Hive, maybe you're the person to have interview. Such a thing would give this chain Hype. After all his book presents this very topic so there's an angle there waiting.

Real estate is one business I've always admired and would want to go into when I have gathered resources. It's good to see new technology in the building of structures.

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WoW amazing Technology
I just like it so much.
There is no that robot in Myanmar.
I do reblog your post.

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