RE: Technology And Demographic Changes
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Thanks for the detailed analysis and, from my understanding of the situation, this is spot on.
China is advancing very quickly in terms of automation. It is the leading country in terms of robotic implementation and expected to continue to be leading that field. Japan is also doing it but, as you stated, that is out of necessity.
Americans talk about losing jobs to China;
This is an old narrative that Trump was able to tap into. That hasnt been true, on large scale, in 15 years. Most of the jobs in the US lost, over 80%, are due to technology.
Chinese are losing their jobs to machines.
This also doesnt bode well for the likes of Vietnam and Laos.
The one thing I would say that is omitted from your equation is that while robots can make up for the loss of workers due to aging populations, it cannot make up for the decrease in consumption. Robots do not buy stuff like humans do. That is where demographics really cause an issue.
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Thanks for the feedback.
I was joking about losing jobs to a different country. But you are right on Vietnam and Laos. I completed missed that part. Jobs goes to places with lowest cost. Robots is only one factor when jobs moves away from China.
For
Yes, they won't buy food, cleaning supplies like human do. I am not disagreeing with you, just trying to imagine the future. Don't you think that the market would shift to more robotics related consumer products?
Human will have to adopt more purchases from replacement parts for their robots, software upgrade services. Those are something we don't need to pay yet.
There may be more robots in our houses that humans. We would purchase new items, instead of traditionally merchandises. The human will buy stuff for the robots.
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Certainly there will be a portion of incomes having to go towards the servicing and upkeep of machines. However, in proportion, I feel it will be a much smaller amount.
And do not forget, there is a lot of stuff over the next couple of decades that will end up in a non-physical form. We saw this with music, video, and communication. We are going to see it with a lot more.
So while we will realize a great technological march, we are also going to see a lot of things pushed down to near zero marginal cost.
All this combined makes it hard for those countries to compensate for the big loss in population.
After all a few robotic parts does not make up for the loss of not buying a home since a couple does not exist.
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