How would you act if it all aligned?

in LeoFinance11 months ago

Last night I read a post by @aggroed looking at the TA of Hive at the moment and a wild prediction of the price of HIVE at the end of the year, which he labelled as such. His prediction? 80 dollar Hive.

Okay, @aggroed obviously started his weekend and got into the medicine cabinet a little early this week, as I think that sounds pretty insane - although not necessarily out of the realms of possibility if a whole lot of planets, stars and galaxies align - and all the gods make an appearance and endorse Hive directly in written form.

Yet, while I think 80 dollar Hive is a little unlikely, I think it is interesting to think what that would mean, considering my account value with about 200K Hive would go from about 20,000 dollars from the start of the year to 16 million at the end. With that kind of value, I would probably think about taking a little out finally to finish my house. You?


What I wonder is if the value of Hive dramatically increases, with dramatic being anything from one dollar up, how many people would have regrets of how they have acted on Hive the last four years. What I mean is, we hear so many anecdotal stories of people saying "If I hadn't sold in 20XX ..." stories about Bitcoin and Ethereum and others and will this arrive on Hive.

But it isn't just about the selling. How many people will regret their approach to the community and platform, where rather than building up their presence, they did what they wanted. There are many accounts here that I haver talked to over the time who say "I don't care about earnings" but many of their posts are complaining about the rewards on Hive, which means, the rewards they themselves get.

I have also always found it curious how people who say they are in need and complain about the rewards they get, don't act in a way that is supportive of getting out of the need and providing for themselves. In my opinion, if a need, it requires servicing, but I think people will favor what they want instead. Many seem to think that they should be able to earn on whatever they want to produce, without considering whether it is what people are willing to consume it, let alone "pay" for it.

A lot of people seem to think that because the HIVE comes out of there is is no cost to the upvoting accounts, but this is not true and it is more than just opportunity cost. In order to distribute from the pool, an account has to hold HIVE staked, which is risk exposure in several ways. Not only is there the lost opportunity to sell, there is also the lost opportunity to trade on the spikes, which can be very costly indeed. Yet, there are many accounts who have done just this, powered up and are spreading a little Hive around, even though it costs them opportunity.

I think some of these accounts will have regrets too, because they have foregone many opportunities along the way, while many of the people they have supported have benefited on the markets. However, once those highs start to arrive, they will be happy that they held, even though they could have held more, but as is the case in every bullrun, there will be people complaining about they didn't have the opportunity to collect any tokens prior to - even though they may have been on the platform four or five years.

While this sounds very critical, if an account has been here since 2016 or 2017 and hasn't earned a significant amount of HIVE, they have done something wrong by choice. What I mean is, there has been a massive amount of opportunity over the years to earn tokens of various kinds, but it requires building an account presence, which might not align with the "wants" of content delivery.

There are always going to be skill and suitability variations between people and the landscape can ebb and flow to support different kinds of skills over time, but it does require paying some attention and perhaps being willing to prepare to be able to take advantage. For example, I am lucky because I can write okay, but this isn't something I was born with, it has been developed over time and my journey on Hive has taken a massive amount of work to get to where I am today - work that I am near 100% sure that the vast majority would never undertake considering the uncertainty in the future value of the activity.

To do this, requires a mindset that values the future, as well as the present, which is somewhat of an entrepreneurial position. Because I believed that my product has value, I have continually pushed to build the business around it, this has been both fun and heart-breaking at times, where while I love the writing process now, I also value the potential of the future and there have been many times where I have felt that all of the work I have done, will be torn away and be left valueless.

Last year, Due to Covid, I came very close to losing my consultancy business that has taken eight years of my life to build, something made more difficult since I am not the stereotypical business owner of this kind in Finland. With all the other pressures happening simultaneously, this exacted a toll on me and my family, but there was no way I was going to lay down and let it die, because I couldn't do what I want, because conditions weren't suitable.

As I have said many times before, the majority of value is created in the mud, at the times where there is high uncertainty, high risk and very low clarity. This is where all new is developed, all future unicorn companies, all world-changing industries. However, this is not where most people will spend their time, as we as humans like certainty, we like to do what we want.

While I think there is a better world possible where the majority of us have increased opportunity and well-being, the fact is that there is going to likely be a Pareto principle in play, where twenty percent of the population cerate 80 percent of the opportunity. In the past, this twenty percent has kept the value for themselves because they think that they deserve it because they did the work, which seems like a decent position, until recognizing what a clusterfuck of a world we have created through this, one where the 20 percent of owners have been whittled down to the one percent, even though the 20 are still doing the work.

But nothing comes for free and while we can look at this as having to do the work first, there is also the position that if we want to live in world that is clean and society isn't at each other's throats and we are at constant risk of being victims of violence, there is a cost to that too. That cost is most likely going to be carried by the producers, as the other 80 percent who make up society just don't have the will or suitability of skill of the moment to add significant value themselves. However, if the process of development is handled well, we are able to build an economic system that is able to increasingly capture more value-adding participants, by building gateways to include a wider range of skills of value to earn.

Last night, @abh12345 wrote a post on it's not what you earn, it's what you spend and I will add to that, it is also HOW you spend it. If that magical nd highly-unlikely 80 dollar figure arrives to HIVE, I suspect that while I would take some value out, what I will most likely do is see how I can add more value to the network in how I spend it. This will mean supporting all kinds of activities, including new projects, project teams and communities that can use their skills to build infrastructure and services that capture more of the skills we value.

80 dollar Hive would give my current account stake a 600 dollar vote, 10x a day - 6000 dollars worth. Even if I am taking the 50% curation, that can support a team of 20-30 people in several projects, building applications of some kind in the hope that we can bring value to the world, in ways it didn't exist earlier. The potential for Hive is far greater than the value of the pool, it is the value of everything that can be built on it that adds value to the world as a whole. It is a community of startups and a process for incubation to develop what we need as communities and a global society to continually develop solutions for the challenges we face.

Perhaps if, a whole lot of planets, stars and galaxies align.

[ Gen1: Hive ]

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I kind of started going through the comments and then glazed, too mathsy for me XD

If it all aligned eh, I would...just keep blundering along doing what I'm doing because what I'm earning now is still better than what I was earning before and I don't care that much XD

And I would also panic call JJ and make him figure out the numbers and if I have to do tax for it and then make him do it for me while I cried under a blanket or something XD

If there was enough for me to do anything worth selling out for (where "worthwhile" is basically paying off the house and possibly all the renos I want to do) then I'd do that, otherwise yeh no change, I am a boring tiny account :)

$80 hive sounds nuts though x_x but then again I'm sure current bitcoin prices sounded nuts even to the early adopters years ago.

would be a pretty interesting life if suddenly all of those one HIVE and up earners were 80 dollar and up earners.

$80 hive sounds nuts though x_x but then again I'm sure current bitcoin prices sounded nuts even to the early adopters years ago.

It is a 32 billion dollar market cap - not out of the realms of possibility - if the stars align.

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if hive goes to $80 then i would have $80,000. $20,000 from that sum will go into completing my house which has taken a huge chunk of my earning over the last 3 years. I would not need to sell for hive basic things anymore. I probably will never even need to sell hive again. I would become a venture capitalist, investing in projects that value to the system and building my African community. That will be my reality if hive hits $80. I would have more than I could possibly need. $80k might not seem like a huge sum, but it will certainly change my financial position for good.

However, i don't dream of such. I am working with the current reality of things which is around $0.16. i have no complaints about hive. My goal is to continue adding value in my own little way.

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This is what I am hoping for, as like you said, you wouldn't need to sell, but could still support projects locally. It would be amazing if that happend all over the world, like spot fires that ignite creativity.

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80 fucking dollars. Lol. Yes, it would be amazing but I would literally eat one of my shoes if that were to happen. Of course I could afford to wash it down with caviare and champagne so that would be a plus :OD

I do think if we get the traction and a killer app or too we could tap into the dollars range but I am not thinking that we will beat ATH's of yesteryear/yesterchains. A dollar or two per hive would be very welcome though.

People will always regret and some will have none, what I would hate with the increase in value is the utter shithounds who have left that will descend with their amazing tales of how they got waylaid but they are back now and they love us guys.

Speaking of which, is allabumbum still about? :O)

I know that he was just joking, but it is interesting to think about. it is about a 30 billion dollar market cap, which isn't outside the realms of possibility if for example, there is a decline in Facebook and instagram investment when their advertising profits come under attack.

A steady couple dollars would be plenty to get the ball rolling, and I think that in time it could be more again. People hope for the pumps though, not longevity.

Allasbum hasn't posted for 7 months, after coming back and picking up autos again. She probably isn't too far from return number 5 though.

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You have gotta admire a serial returner!

I am glad he was joking. I didn't see his post. I could look but they tend to make me feel a bit ill :0)

It is funny how some people don't seem to have any shame at all.

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There are so many, it's like the zombie horde of the apocalypse

$80 does sound a bit nuts and it would be great to see $5 at some point as that would mean a great deal to me personally and for many others that the time here spent was productive. A $5 would give me possibly $3000 per month passive income without having to take any out who knows though where this will end up. I would like to see stability in the price however so something that can stay and is realistic so if $80 is on the cards then a stable $10 would be fantastic more than the $80 in my thinking. Maybe I could take on a house project in Europe and do a fixer upper as I wont be here. You deserve this so lets hope this happens as it will definitely take the heat off.

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I would love to see a base price of 2 form, where it slowly rose over time as more people joined in to participate. 3000 passive a month while adding value to hundreds of others sounds pretty good, doesn't it?

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That is something I could live with and believe that is the most realistic outcome. Any more would be a bonus and won't say no to if it happens. $3000 as a passive income is decent and Hive doesn't have to really do much from here besides grow it's user base to create stability.

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Assuming that I would buy a few thousand hive now? I think that at 80 dollar Hive I would sell a bit. Maybe worth something like a few thousands eur. But I would probably keep most of it powered up/ delegated to keep getting more hive in the future. As an optimist insane dreamer I would believe that price will not drop too much so having more hive and constant income in the future would be better than getting a huge sum at once. Also like Gandalf I would rather not test myself with having that much cash in my pocket. Temptation to spend it would be too great. I have read a few stories about nba players who got millions and ended up broke in very short amount of time. Besides that shiny things like villas, cars, yachts or fancy clothes could get me in trouble. Even if I would trust myself to overcome the temptation I would still not trust that others will do the same. what good will that wealth do for me if some thugs will smash my skull in/ shoot me to get some of it?

If you can afford to buy a bit of Hive, why not? If you enjoy spending your time here, it is probably worth investing into it more than time too. I find it kind of interesting that people don't mind spending on equipment for hobbies, but not their hobby on Hive.

I don't care too much about wealth and yeah, most people aren't prepared for it. Remember that most NBA players have had to work their way up from ghettos, not necessarily a place that is conducive to building good financial habits.

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80 is honestly completely unrealistic. Fuck, the way things have been going it'll be an achievement for us to hit 1$ by year end. Which, would still be super awesome.

yeah it is, but it was said in jest and it is actually not a bad way to get conversations going around these kinds of topics. A dollar would be a decent baseline.

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Yeah, that makes sense haha. I do honestly think that the value of HIVE is easily 80/H and higher... it's just challenging getting it to moon like that. But I do truly believe that what we have here is unique and full of potential. One day hopefully we'll see those totally insane prices. I'm holding out hope!

I like to fantasize. And I thought I could. But, I cannot imagine the price of $ 80 for 1 HIVE.

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80 cents first would be a decent target :D

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100 % :D

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At $80, yes I would learn to take some Hive and Convert it to Fiat. I would take out 1000 Hive. That would give me $80,000 and that would carry me several years. I would take 3/4 of the remaining Hive and use it to support projects or maybe start my own project. The remainder would be used as it is now to vote/reward things I like.

I myself do not see $80.00 Hive, but $8.00 is a possible reality,

would be pretty crazy to have 80K on 1000 HIVE...

Yeah, I don't see eighty either, unless the world changes and starts to invest into real projects, not air.

A really good question - how would all of us act right now if we knew for a fact, without a shadow of a doubt that Hive is going to moon to 80 dollars?

Makes you think..
What if we all just started acting as if we knew for a fact this was inevitable?


This is the thing isn't it? Nothing is certain, so there will be people who get it right, people who get it wrong, some will be lucky, some unlucky - it doesn't matter what we look at, it is all kind of the same. Dumb luck plays a big roll and it is dumb luck that I am here at all.

$80 😂

$8 would be amazing, but I'd take 1/2$ at the end of this year.

It would be great to be able to support project that are building further value with a proper pay packet, and yeah, clear that mortgage!

Yep. 80 is crazy - for this year. I think it would mean a 32 billion dollar market cap from the top of my head with bad math skills.

Mortgage cleared would be nice, but I'd be happy to be able to finish building the house : D

You could take early retirement and have it done in no time :)

Not with the amount of Möet I would be drinking.

50 cents by the end of the year is a bit too pessimistic. Our perceptions are biased by recent observations. I remember clearly when some people were talking about STEEM being unlikely to go under $2 again in the spring of 2018. Little did they know.

Similarly, there could be a crazy spike again if speculators start chasing mid and small cap alts like last time. HIVE going from 15 cents to merely 50 cents under those circumstances sounds unduly pessimistic. HIVE could perhaps spend a couple of months above $1 and spike to $5-$10 for a week. But I think it will go back to 50 cents come next bear market. If the world starts finally paying HIVE the kind of attention to it deserves, it may not go below 50 cents ever again after that.

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I agree with 50 cents being a bit pessimistic - Is 1-2$ a better way to put my slightly more optimistic guess? :)

There is certainly going to be a lot of slush money generated if btc/eth/ltc have the year many expect, and hopefully HIVE will get a look in.

That's one of many reasons you won't find me powering down at $80. All the activity that kind of price would attract; that's a powerful network effect.
Living on a quarter of your curation rewards... that'd be pretty fantastic.

At that price, there is so much potential to invest into and build all kinds of value streams that benefit millions of people.

Account creation at 3 Hive, would be $240 for an account.
Just having the capacity to onboard people via account creation tokens would be valuable.
I noticed your alt on the PAL richlist. Are you across the project that just launched?
You have enough to nominate yourself as an oracle and earn some PAL for verifying results. I'm almost there, just gotta wait for this HBD conversion to complete.

I have enquired about being an Oracle and was wondering how they would be notified. At the moment it's a check the site for closed markets and I could do with a ping to my phone!

Would me nice to have a discord bot perhaps, a Gina notification.

I was wondering that too. Figured I'd just check in as part of my daily rhythm until its clearer.
4% of the pot between 20 oracles is only 0.2% each, but if the pot is $10k, that's $20. Worth a quick google search.

I have only had a quick squiz at it, but it is on the list for this weekend to dive a bit deeper and work out what I would need to do.


In general, I like the Pareto principle and its applications but you could also have a non-defined number of iterations. The second time you take those successful 20 % from the first iteration and split them 80/20 again. And so on, and so on...Basically, those 20 percent are out of the norm. Out of the bell. Relatively. Going thinner and thinner on the graph. Towards zero. And this is still normal dispersion. We're just focusing on the exceptions among the exceptions.

The question is...what are the things in their behaviors that they share. Or, precisely, How they spend their money.

Yep, it fractals.

I ask people the question:

What percentage of your total income do you spend investing into profit generating assets and, what percentage do you think financial institutions invest?

They invest close to 100 percent, and they are dealing with very large numbers. Same for the very wealthy, they can't spend all of that wealth living hand to mouth, so the majority of it gets invested.

Aye, you need to be above the line of survival in order to invest. I'd say above the line of comfort, too. But luxury...

There's the difference — how much would go into luxury and why and how much would rather go into investments.

Also, financial institutions are in their comfort zone while investing. They know the game. they made the rules in the first place. Then they rigged them ;) It's their game. And a totally new one for Average Joe or one that A.J. would never play at all.

I don't care if he got on the turps a little early this weekend...If hive goes to $80 by the end of the year I will too! 😊

Yeah, at that price, I would raise a glass or two also.

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Top shelf too.

Just think about how much the Market cap has to reach in order to allow HIVE to get 5$...

It is only 2 billion. It has been there before. The issue isn't really getting there as it requires a big pump, it is staying there long term. Imagine if the base was price was 2 and what the community would look like.