RE: Would you switch?

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The fact is, you have double the chances of winning the 1 million dollars if you switch doors once you are told one of the doors that has a penny behind it. You have a two out of three chance to win the million dollars if you switch doors every time while only having a one out of three chance if you stick with your first door.

This hasn't been proven to be 100% true. Its just one way of looking at things.

Another way would be:

  • Contestant Picks Door two out of the three choices given. This gives a 33% chance at winning $1 Million dollars. The other two doors each also have a 33% chance at containing 1 Million Dollars or Nothing.

  • The person making the offer then reveals Door number 3 has nothing in it and offers the contestant to switch doors.

  • There's now two doors to choose from not three making odds of winning 50/50. The contestant doesn't gain any advantage via switching doors.

This debate was a hot topic and debated frequently at one point. The game show Lets Make A Deal hightened the debate as they offered prices in the same fashion as your example. That being said, if I was every given such an offer I would change doors because ........ why the hell not.



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This hasn't been proven to be 100% true. Its just one way of looking at things.

Yet it has been proven true without a shadow of a doubt using math and computer simulations.

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(Edited)

There's still an ongoing debate about it but for the most part, it doesn't matter to me regardless as I would always pick to switch. The decision to switch is an easy one. If a person believes the unchoosen door now has 66% of winning then its an easy switch. If a person believes the two remaining doors makes the odds 50/50% of winning then switching does no harm.

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There's still an ongoing debate about it but for the most part

There is an ongoing debate about almost everything, doesn't mean it's actually valid.
Many believe the Earth is flat. ¯\(ツ)

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Things are always changing. New proof comes up showing old solutions and ways of thinking to be wrong time and time again. Its one of the reasons why I dislike the current school system.

As for your flat Earth example, there was a time that most thought Earth was flat and the people who thought it was round were the crazy ones.

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In math things never change, once something has been proven it is true, and the probability is solidly in maths territory.

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