Gartner's Predictions About NFT, Web3, Decentralized Identity and Metaverse

IT research and consultancy company Gartner published its 2022 Gartner Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies report on August 10. The report, which includes 25 emerging technologies, had Metaverse, Web3, NFTs, and Decentralized Identity related to the crypto world.

As part of the Hype Cycle reports, Gartner analysts place emerging technologies in one of the following stages and make predictions about their mainstream adaptations.

1. Innovation Trigger
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations
3. Trough of Disillusionment
4. Slope of Enlightenment
5. Plateau of Productivity

The stages in question are similar to the boom and bust cycles of the markets. New technology is born and evolves gradually. At some stage, there is excessive optimism about what can be done with this technology. After the incompatibility of the peaked expectations with reality is realized, a pessimistic period starts. Technology, meanwhile, continues to evolve, finally reaching a level of efficiency that will work in real life.

Gartner added DEFI, NFTs, and Decentralized Identity to its 2021 emerging technologies hype cycle report. 2022 report did not include DEFI and contains Metaverse and Web3 as emerging technologies.

How has Gartner approached crypto-related technologies? How did the analysts define them, and how did they make predictions about them? It would be appropriate to address these issues separately for the four technologies included in the 2022 report.

NFTs

Gartner's report defines NFTs as "a unique programmable blockchain-based digital item that publicly proves ownership". Tokenized physical assets are included in recognition along with digital assets.

NFTs have been featured in the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" phase in both the 2021 and 2022 reports. Both reports indicate that NFTs will become mainstream within 2 to 5 years.

Decentralized Identity

The function of decentralized identity was expressed by Gartner as follows:

decentralized identity allows an entity to control its own digital identity by leveraging technologies such as blockchain or other distributed ledger technologies

I covered the subject in my article titled What Is Digital Identity and How Will It Affect Our Lives? in detail. Gartner analysts stated that this technology is still in the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" stage and could become mainstream in 2 to 5 years.

Web3

Web3 does not have an agreed definition. That's why I was wondering how Gartner approached the subject. They have made a definition that focuses on user identity and information.

Web3 is a new stack of technologies for developing decentralized web applications that enable users to control their identity and data.

When I reviewed Gartner's other publications on Web3, I read that they mentioned decentralization and new technologies such as the semantic web, natural language processing, and machine learning.

The report show Web3 in the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" stage. Unlike decentralized identity and NFTs, Web3 is expected to become mainstream within 5 to 10 years.

Metaverse

Metaverse, like Web3, is a controversial concept inside and outside the crypto community. In Gartner's definition, it is stated that the metaverse is a collective virtual 3D shared space. I believe that the word collective in the description refers to decentralized infrastructures.

Metaverse is indicated in the report as an "innovation trigger," stating that widespread use will take more than ten years. @taskmaster4450 also expressed a similar view in his comment on the article I wrote yesterday about metaverses.

Conclusion

Apart from the emerging technologies hype cycle report, Gartner also produces a report focusing on blockchain and web3. They announced the information in July in a blog post. The report cites cryptocurrencies, dAPPS, and blockchain wallets as technologies on their way to becoming mainstream.

The pro-crypto highlights in the report caught my attention. In the announcement, 'centralized' bad actors are blamed for the rapid price depreciation in June, and it is emphasized that DEFI protocols perform their functions well.

I think that Gartner's estimates should not be taken as written in stone. We know that the crypto industry is highly dynamic. New technology may emerge at any time, and there may be deviations in the adaptation times of existing crypto-related technologies.

Thank you for reading.

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