De-Urbanization and its possible effects on Land Prices

in LeoFinancelast year

Urbanization is one of the hallmarks of industrial civilization at its zenith, and especially where we live in Latin America, it is a well documented phenomenon that accelerated exponentially during the last century, where the possibility of jobs pulled people towards cities at the same time as rural violence and discontent has pushed out of rural areas.

The results of this have been seen particularly clear - crowded cities, ageing rural populations. While the value of land in rural areas has not performed well, the urban centers of the same municipalities have seen growth. The cities have boomed massively.

It is our belief that this trend is now reversing.

IMG SOURCE; Bogota is known as a Primate City


Whether the trend began to reverse before COVID, or how long before COVID the reverse will be able to be detected is up to later researchers and historians to identify. But the effects of what we are now very clearly seeing are already beginning to be felt.

It is the Urban Center of the Rural Area, some version of the US's Exurb, which will probably continue to valuate as millions of people in in cities around the world look for a similar level of 'quality of life' while moving closer to the source of food production.

While we are studying these effects on the ground here in Colombia, it may be worth mentioning that actual food is grown here. In areas of the United States where vast swathes of corn and soy are grown, we cannot be sure if this counts as 'food', even if it is usually made into food.

Is the world changing?

Yes, and it always has been. It is possible that its getting set to change more quickly that we are used to. If change happens, we believe that thinking about possible effects, as well as knock-on or second order effects, would be wise. What kind of world do you want to live in?

Where do you want to be the next time we get locked down?

This isn't advice, just some thoughts. Due your Diligence.

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Nitpicking, Bogotá is a big city but is it really disproportionately large compared to Medellín?
FWIW, Wikipedia shows that neither Colombia nor Brasil has a primate city:

You are absolutely right that Medellin is the competitor. Population of the greater urban area of Medellin: 2.427 million vs Bogota: 7.413 million (both 2018 estimates).

While Medellin definitely has some big effect on the popular culture, politically much of the history of Colombian conflict can be traced to Bogotano supremecy in politics. Remember that Pablo Esobar was a Senator from Medellin.

Thank you for taking the time to think critically!

I think we are seeing a shift away from Urban areas. In the U.S., it simply is too expensive for people to live. Most major cities saw huge run ups in the cost of living, especially property.

Couple that with COVID and the work from home movement, and we might see the reversal in place.

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