Bitcoin's 2024 halving will occur near the next solar maximum

in STEMGeeks2 months ago (edited)

When the sun becomes more active, it can cause havoc on the electrical system. And many consider the hardening on the grid currently in place is inadequate for a strong solar storm. If Earth is hit with a strong enough CME (coronal mass ejection) the power grid would be knocked off line and so would the internet in many places. Routing may completely break down and cause massive outages when trying to access online resources. One such resource could be Bitcoin.

Source: U.S. DEPT. OF COMMERCE, NOAA, SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (SWPC)

Though assuming BTC was greatly impacted by mass power outages, we can assume so would the Mastercard, Visa network and most banks.

Source: NASA

Other possibilities such as Bitcoin transactions are taken off the internet and transmitted through shortwave radio, which could never be done with Visa, Mastercard or the Banking system. Though if the solar flares are strong enough, radio will have a very hard time functioning due to the charging of the atmosphere by the Sun. And we may get Aurora in places it has never been seen before.

https://news.bitcoin.com/no-internet-no-problem-how-to-send-bitcoin-by-amateur-radio/

History tends to repeat itself, and just because the sun is quiet right now does not mean it will stay that way. Looking back to the mid 1800s one such event happened.

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks. Telegraph pylons threw sparks. Some telegraph operators could continue to send and receive messages despite having disconnected their power supplies.

Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

Now with even more dependence on the electrical grid, and the delicate nature of the internet we may find our Sun really messing with things.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012

In 2012 we missed a "bullet" from the sun. But we cannot assume that we will be so lucky with every solar maximum.

Source: Wikipedia
Picture taken from the International Space Station.

So the next BTC halving may be a little weird, in a good way or bad way. I could see it going either way, if the Banks and Credit Card networks were down but BTC found a way to stay resilient during a massive solar storm it may just prove to be better than the fiat system to the masses.

Source: Spaceweather.com

Or a major outage could cause a panic sell when systems come back online, though I think the first possibility is more likely. As the Sun cannot "hack" Bitcoin, but could surely stop transactions until routing is restored on the internet.

I do not expect the Sun to be the death of Bitcoin, if anything its decentralized nature may just be the thing that helps keep the economy going when everything is out.

Very possible nothing bad happens, maybe indeed we do harden our grid by then. Though looking at our other infrastructure like our bridges, roads and other government funded projects I do not have alot of hope for such a thing to happen.

I would recommend you keep extra water on hand, extra toilet paper, food and batteries coming into 2024 through 2025. Maybe even get a HAM license, so you can operate short wave radios to broadcast crypto transactions. As if the grid was knocked offline for days, weeks or maybe even months you can assume the supply chain will completely break down.

Only time will tell how this plays out, it may make the next halving jump in price even more than "usual" or it may cause panic selling on a level BTC has never seen.

Posted with STEMGeeks

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Oh wow this is going to be pretty interesting.

Some speculation as to where this graph is going to end up but I really like your interpretation.

And sounds like we definitely need to put up some Faraday cages to protect all of those sensitive electronics...

Do we actually have any witnesses that are hardened?

Interesting question....

Depending on hash rate the halving date can change for sure. We shall see how it all plays out.

Its really difficult to EMP harden machines that are not air gapped so I doubt it.

It will be another battle for the ages between Bogdanoffs and Sminem

Bogdanoffs and Sminem

I had no idea what you were talking about until I looked it up.. looks like thats the "damp it" meme.

You're missing out on the meme cultures. I heard of them recently and they have been around for years. Learning something daily. XD

haha okay sounds like I have some meme homework to do :-P