Candid Journal Entry #17: Revisiting the Numbers

         It's been almost three weeks since the emergency broadcast for curfews in Salt Lake City. That's when the protests started. Lucky for everyone, the curfew never went longer than a few days. The question now is, have things gotten worse? It's a good thing the state website keeps track of those numbers.

         At a glance, it seems like the percentage of positive cases have gone up. The current number shows that it's approaching 6%. Several weeks ago, that number was under 5%. Is it significant? That'll depend on the context.

         The hospitalization numbers may seem scary at first. But, the website now has updated breakdowns of the patients.

         The number of inpatients seems to have remained about the same. What's more clear is the total bed space, including ICU, that are available. I assume the 60% occupancy reflects to all patients. Remember that the ICU is for more than COVID-19 cases.

         It's also somewhat comforting to know that the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed. The hospitals here are using <15% of their ventilators available.

         Before you freak out, all the percentages on the above chart are actually lower than the last time I posted. Mortality has gone under 1% for the first time since the stay at home orders. Although there may be something to the gender ratio. The gap is widening, for those who succumbed to the virus, that is. The actual case distribution is much narrower at 52-48 for men and women.

         When we look back on the incidence curve, it still looks concerning. It should come as no surprise that cases are rising as everyone come out in the open to resume life.

         Even with added complications such as protests, the state seems to be optimistic. The more rural parts have already started their "new normal". Of course, the new normal doesn't exclude social distancing and personal protective measures. Unfortunately for Salt Lake City proper, heavy restrictions are still in place.

         As my medical director has said before, it's a numbers game. I suppose those in power figured that as long as our infrastructure can take it, we'll keep chugging along. Damage to every aspect of society is inevitable, but the best we could do is to mitigate it. Again, having sound data is the key to implement sound policies.

         As time goes on, medical knowledge on this virus will increase. The next milestone is after the unemployment benefits end. That's more on the social and economic side than health, but they aren't unrelated. Oh, and the first iteration of vaccines will be interesting as well.

         Of course, this is my personal experience in my local area. Your state, country, etc., will be different.

         Until next time, stay safe.