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## Introduction

Hey it's a me again @drifter1!

Today we continue with **Mathematics**, and more specifically the branch of "**Discrete Mathematics**", in order to get into **Conditional Probability**.

I highly suggest checking the post on Probability before this one!

So, without further ado, let's get straight into it!

## Conditional Probability

For dependent events, where the occurrence of one affects the outcome of another, a new kind of probability is defined known as conditional probability. The probability of an event *A* from occurring when an event *B* has already occurred is denoted as *P(A | B)*, and given by:

Solving for the intersection, results in:

In a similar manner, the probability of event *B* from occurring when *A* has occurred is:

If the events *A* and *B* are independent then:

### Law of Total Probability

Based on conditional probability, it's possible to calculate the total probability of an event *B* for any number of disjoint events *A _{i}*. The resulting equation is known as the law of total probability:

Each intersection can also be replaced with the corresponding conditional probability equation yielding:

### Bayes' Theorem

Let's not forget to mention Bayes' Theorem, which is basically an equation that relates *P(A | B)* and *P(B | A)*.

It's easy to derive such an equation from the definition of conditional probability:

**Note**: Of course commutativity applies for the intersection of *A* and *B*.

So, knowing *P(A)*, *P(B)* and either of the two it's possible to calculate the other using this equation.

## Full-On Example

Consider a bowl is filled with 3 black and 5 white marbles. What's the probability of picking:

- two consecutive black marbles
- black marble followed by white marble
- three consecutive black marbles
- a black marble in the second pick

The overall number of marbles is 8, and so the probabilities of picking a black and white marble respectively are initially:

### Two consecutive black marbles

After picking a black marble, 7 marbles will be remaining, with only 2 being black. The probability of picking a second black marble, after a black one has already been picked, is thus:

And so, the total probability for picking two consecutive black marbles is:

### Black marble followed by white marble

After picking a black marble, 5 out of the 7 remaining ones will be white. So, the probability of picking a white one after a black marble is:

As such, the total probability for picking a black marble followed by a white marble is:

**Bonus**: Of course, the order doesn't matter in this problem, as picking a white one and then a black one has the same probability (it's simply the intersection of *B* and *W* in either order). As such, after picking a white one 3 black marbles will remain, giving the same total probability of:

### Three consecutive black marbles

After two black marbles have already been picked, picking a third marble has a probability of:

as 6 marbles will remain with only 1 being black.

As such, the total probability is:

In other words, the probability is basically the product:

as each pick depends on the previous pick.

### Black marble in second pick

This last case is a great example of the law of total probability!

Because it's uncertain what came first, the probability will be a sum of two cases:

- black marble was picked first
- white marble was picked first

So, picking a black marble in the second pick has a probability of:

## RESOURCES:

### References

- https://www.javatpoint.com/discrete-mathematics-tutorial
- http://discrete.openmathbooks.org/dmoi3.html
- https://brilliant.org/wiki/discrete-mathematics/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bayes-theorem.asp

### Images

Mathematical equations used in this article, have been generated using quicklatex.

Block diagrams and other visualizations were made using draw.io.

## Previous articles of the series

- Introduction → Discrete Mathematics, Why Discrete Math, Series Outline
- Sets → Set Theory, Sets (Representation, Common Notations, Cardinality, Types)
- Set Operations → Venn Diagrams, Set Operations, Properties and Laws
- Sets and Relations → Cartesian Product of Sets, Relation and Function Terminology (Domain, Co-Domain and Range, Types and Properties)
- Relation Closures → Relation Closures (Reflexive, Symmetric, Transitive), Full-On Example
- Equivalence Relations → Equivalence Relations (Properties, Equivalent Elements, Equivalence Classes, Partitions)
- Partial Order Relations and Sets → Partial Order Relations, POSET (Elements, Max-Min, Upper-Lower Bounds), Hasse Diagrams, Total Order Relations, Lattices
- Combinatorial Principles → Combinatorics, Basic Counting Principles (Additive, Multiplicative), Inclusion-Exclusion Principle (PIE)
- Combinations and Permutations → Factorial, Binomial Coefficient, Combination and Permutation (with / out repetition)
- Combinatorics Topics → Pigeonhole Principle, Pascal's Triangle and Binomial Theorem, Counting Derangements
- Propositions and Connectives → Propositional Logic, Propositions, Connectives (∧, ∨, →, ↔ and ¬)
- Implication and Equivalence Statements → Truth Tables, Implication, Equivalence, Propositional Algebra
- Proof Strategies (part 1) → Proofs, Direct Proof, Proof by Contrapositive, Proof by Contradiction
- Proof Strategies (part 2) → Proof by Cases, Proof by Counter-Example, Mathematical Induction
- Sequences and Recurrence Relations → Sequences (Terms, Definition, Arithmetic, Geometric), Recurrence Relations
- Probability → Probability Theory, Probability, Theorems, Example

## Final words | Next up

And this is actually it for today's post!

Next time we will get into an overview of Graph Theory...

See ya!

Keep on drifting!

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