You are viewing a single comment's thread from:

RE: Independent Events In Probability

in STEMGeeks2 months ago

The problem with this branch of mathematics is its application to places it doesn't belong.

Such as, what is the probability of a sting of coincidences happening?
What is the probability of life forming on this planet?

We see these as random event, when they are anything but.

And finally, the granddaddy of them all, the Schroedinger Experiment
Which was designed to be 50/50, except he failed completely by adding a living component and an emotional component. These make the outcome anything but 50/50.

Sort:  

Hi. I gave your post some thought.

The problem with this branch of mathematics is its application to places it doesn't belong.

There are cases when probability and mathematics concepts/topics are not used well for real life. Any kind of mathematical/statistical/financial modeling is difficult in my opinion. Simple models are easy to understand for many but don't match well to real life. More complex models match better for real life events and scenarios but are hard to understand.

Model selection requires human decision making which is not always perfect. We do try though to model a representation of a scenario.

Such as, what is the probability of a sting of coincidences happening?
What is the probability of life forming on this planet?

We see these as random event, when they are anything but.

I don't do probabilities on coincidences happening nor probabilities of life forming on this planet. I can say that there are events that appear random but are not truly random such as pseudo random numbers from random number generators.

I am not familiar with the Schroedinger Experiment. With that, I have to look into it more closely.