Use This Oxford Uni Tool To Show Your Risk of Death From COVID19: Mine Is 0.0024%!

avatar

If you ever wondered what the statistical chance of you contracting or dying from COVID19 are, the Oxford University COVID19 Risk Factor Calculator might be the fun tool for you!

224994219_10209482077084490_3498834890967339656_n.jpg

With so many people being terrified of getting sick and even dying from SARS CoV2 (COVID19) and perhaps being panicked - not knowing what to do to best stay safe - 'trusting the science' can help plan out key decisions. Clearly, though, there is no single arbiter of Science - Science is not a simple coin operated machine with a big red button to press in order to receive 'the answer'. Science is a method for finding truth and it often involves differing thoughts by different scientific minds being promoted and debated, often for years.

Statistical analysis is often used to try to make sense of our reality and while it is not 100% accurate (though, paradoxically, this particular statistic IS 100% accurate) - it does at least help to put situations into perspective, providing it is used well. What statistics cannot do is take into account your own will and the uniqueness of your own subjective reality - you can always be an outlier or create a reality that the statistics don't account for at all.

In the case of the risk of death or illness from COVID19, it seems that many people are sure that the risk to them is huge. This is not really very likely to be true. One of the key reasons for this is that a lot of statistics used in the media are 'relative' calculations and not 'absolute' calculations. In other words, the statistics tend to measure risk in comparison to something else, such as the risk of death once diagnosed with COVID19 or some other factor. Absolute risk calculations are the total risk when we fully zoom out our perspective and take all things into consideration.

In my own case, based on data from the early waves of the COVID19 phenomena, the absolute risk of me dying from COVID19 (setting aside the various debates about how accurate the testing for COVID19 was - because there were huge problems with the data) is:

0.0024% or 1 in 41667

So if there were 41667 version of me on Earth, all with identical basic details, such as age and gender - then only one of us would be likely, statistically to die from COVID 19. You could loosely say then that I have 41667 COVID19 'lives'. Somewhat more impressive than a cat's 9 lives.

The chances of my hospitalisation are:

0.0336% or 1 in 2976

Given that I have never been hospitalised for anything remotely like COVID in my life, have never spent more than a few hours in hospital in one go for anything at all and haven't set foot in one as a patient for over 15 years (since I took full responsibility for my own health), I feel confident that 'this' version of me will be one of the 2975 that is just fine.

Obviously, you personally might not be so fortunate, statistically, but even so - the chances are that most people will have a very low risk of having any problems. Try it for yourself!

With all of this in mind and considering the nature of the posts I have been making since COVID19 began, exposing all kinds of 'controversies' which discredit the panic spreading mass media (who gradually have to change their tune as more evidence comes forward to back up what I am saying), I implore all to pause to reassess what they might believe already about COVID19.

Having watched countless harrowing videos of people paralysed and dying FROM THE VACCINE and NOT from COVID19 - I implore all to consider the real risk of harm they are playing with from both sides here.

Further Related Reading


If you haven't already seen them, my related recent posts are very informative:



Wishing you well,
Ura Soul






Read My User Guide for Hive Here


You Can Vote For Me As A Hive Witness!

Click the big black button below:

ura soul witness vote for hive


View My Witness Application Here

View Some of My Witness Related Posts

Note: Witnesses are the computer servers that run the Hive Blockchain.

Without witnesses there is no Hive blockchain or DApps such as PeakD and 3Speak... You can really help Hive by making your witness votes count!

I am founder of an ethical Digital Marketing Agency called @crucialweb. We help our clients to grow and innovate online and offer discounts for decentralised projects. Get in touch if you'd like to work with us.

ureka.org
I run a Social network for healing, balancing and evolving too. Meet compassionate co-creators of reality, learn, share & make life better!

Posted via proofofbrain.io



0
0
0.000
10 comments
avatar

death 0.009% associated hospital admission 0.0253%. lol

And that's maybe about flu, depending on my characteristics.

We get sick twice, our smell disappear, we got some temperature, and other symptoms just like flu. That was about me, my wife and our 3 years old child. We treated that as a flu, fresh air, even if that was cold outside, a lot of water to drink, a lot of vitamin C and some honey and ginger. And some paracetamol. As well eating healthy as we always do, no alcohol, no smoking and healthy style of life. Plus some sport, going outside to breathe fresh air without any mask. And here we go. We never get tested because we don't need that. We are not planing any vaccine, and we count on our immune system.

Of course, the Russian government is pushing for this vaccine and people are fired from work because they didn't do it, some organizations aren't accepting people, but people still fight all this. They tell us in the news that more than 20% are vaccinated in Russia, while everyone I meet, didn't do that, and they are not planing that. I don't think that's 20%. That's about 30 million people, not true, of course. Maybe 1 - 5 % that's possible. Russian people use to not trust the government, how they can trust it now if they never gave people something for free before, and they never fought that hard for our health.

I wish more people will be aware, that covid is just like a flu in a bit of complex form and nothing is that scary about that. I hope people understand that their immune system can deal with that. I hope they will not replace all the immune system of people by vaccinating them every month or often. I even have a tool that's correcting my English, and it's counting covid as a mistake when I write it in little letters. They seem wanting to emphasize it everywhere, I'll leave it with little letters.

I hope some magic will happen, and the medical terror will stop someday !


Posted via proofofbrain.io

0
0
0.000
avatar

I don't know how you do it. I love it. I hope you keep finding the strength to stay consistent with providing common sense posts towards this experimental procedure from profiteering technocratic banker elites who never cared about our health...
untitled.gif

0
0
0.000
avatar

hehe, well, i am locked down and so my spirit moves to unlock!

0
0
0.000
avatar

I commend your effort in trying to be objective when assesing the real risks of COV ID-19. Overall this disease is not as deadly as some sectors of the media portay it to be (it's not the Spanish Flu...for example). However, I wish that you applied the same criteria when speaking out against vaccination.

For instance you say the following:

Having watched countless harrowing videos of people paralysed and dying FROM THE VACCINE and NOT from COVID19 - I implore all to consider the real risk of harm they are playing with from both sides here.

What I get from comments like these (citing anectdotal information) is that you think that there is more risk with vaccinating against COVID than not taking the shot.

I am not convinced from your arguments.

IF we go by the official numbers worldwide the overall chance of dying from covid is about 2% (4.3 million deaths versus 200+ million confirmed cases). The actual death rate should be less than that (although it is difficult to confirm the actual rate).

On the other hand there have been 4.4 billion doses of different vaccines administered worldwide. If the vaccines were to have a higher risk than the disease itself we would be looking at possibly tens of millions of related deaths. But that is not happening.

I have to say that my opinion is colored by my own experience. One close relative died from covid and my mother (who is more than 70 years old) has suffered from the side effects of the disease for months. On top of that my wife died from cancer about 10 years ago and she neglected to take here medicine (whithout my knowledge) in favor of taking "natural" medicine and relied on prayer (that did not work). So you can see why I mistrust what I percieve to be anti-science retoric.

Side note: I used the Oxford tool too and my numbers came out to be 1 in 6173 chance of dying from covid and 1 in 785 of hospitalization. Much higher than your results. My risk is probably higher because I suspect that I have an underlying condition but I haven't confirmed it so I did not select the option.

0
0
0.000
avatar
(Edited)

Greetings!

I commend your effort in trying to be objective

Thankyou.

What I get from comments like these (citing anectdotal information) is that you think that there is more risk with vaccinating against COVID than not taking the shot.

If I try to cite the only data available on the VAERS reporting system in the US, for example, then pro vaccine advocates will tell me that I can't rely on the number of deaths connected to the vaccines in there because VAERS isn't accurate. So for the most part I am left with only: 1. Manufacturer data. 2. Media/Gov claims 3. Evidence from real people and associated medical people.

Given that the manufacturers of the majority of the vaccines are among the top 10 world recipients of giant corporate fines (many billions), specifically for lying about their inventions to the public and basically harming lots of people in the process, I'm sure you can forgive me for not accepting evidence category number 1 in any way shape or form. These groups stand to make vast sums from any pandemic and if you review the evidence from the patent history from Dr. David Martin in my previous post you will see that it is pretty likely that some of these corporation may have even deliberately created SARS CoV2.

Having worked for a major pharmaceutical corporation in the past, having witnessed major criminality and having tracked this topic for decades - there is no way I will ever accept evidence from pharmaceutical companies on just about anything. The risks are too high, the bribes are epic and the level of unawareness among the majority of people is perilously high.

The mainstream media and governments are probably worse than even the pharma corporations, if that is possible. These are all 'for profit' organisations dressed up as being benevolent and 'caring'. Even the governments are essentially corporatocracies and oligarchic outposts. Please review the work of Ivy League Historian, Carroll Quigley in detail to understand the depth of depravity that is behind the fake democracies we are living under.

So all I am left with is evidence from the real world, from individuals and groups who, as far as I can tell, stand to have little to gain from their exploration of COVID19 experimental vaccines and in some cases have a lot to lose, in terms of their time and risks of attacks and ridicule from the wider public and system.

I am a member of a telegram group for COVID vaccine victims which has 20k members and which constantly receives new posts from people who have been seriously injured or the members of families who's relative has just died following taking the vaccine. The videos are harrowing in the extreme. They are easily more harrowing then 99% of what I have seen from the disease itself.

When it comes to the mortality data, even the government agents readily admit that throughout much of the last 18 months, people have been recorded as dying from COVID19 when they died from just about anything at all - including car accidents - provided they 'tested positive' for COVID19 using PCR testing. The PCR testing has been declared unfit for purpose by a massive list of people, including it's original inventor!

The reality is that the data we have on mortality is far from accurate and may be massively over hyped in order to terrify the world and generate vast profits in the process. The people doing this live in massive mansions and are completely unaffected by any controls put in place. In fact, we are seeing the largest wealth transfer ever recorded during the pandemic and it is going from the middle and lower wealth brackets, into the hands of those who own and operate the major corporations that are 'allowed' to trade during lockdowns and that can easily survive a global shutdown.

I shouldn't need to be explaining any of this at this point in my humble thinking.

The data provided by the Oxford University tool shows ABSOLUTE risk. This means that it shows the risk of death from COVID, period. Not the risk of death from COVID if you test positive. It shows the actual risk in total. This is part of why the figure is so low as to be hard to quantify.

For reference, if I drive to work and back every day of a year, I will have driven 365 * 2 journeys, which is 730. If I do this for 10 years, I will have driven 7300 journey. If I do this for 30 years, I will have driven around 22,000 journeys. This is still only half the number of the chance of me dying of COVID according to the Oxford data. As it happens, I have had a near fatal crash while driving home from work. About 1 in 30 years. So from experience, my chance of nearly dying while driving to/from work is maybe about 1 in 22,000 (very roughly). The chance of me dying of COVID is roughly half this risk. Yet, we don't ban cars, we don't force everyone to drive at a very slow pace, we don't shut the country down or force people to submit to regular testing for consciousness and capacity to drive! Why is that? Because, generally, we accept that life is risky and we built to be strong enough to adapt and survive such things.

It would be nice if there was zero chance of death or harm in life, but that is not the case on this planet at this time.

The harm that is being done by lockdowns has been estimated to be significantly higher than has been done by COVID itself - due to the massive number of people forced into poverty, the increases in suicide, alcoholism and mental illness etc. My point here is that the policies are not taking into account all of the facts, they are cherry picking them to suit a narrative - just as you may think I am doing.

Given the tiny risk of me dying from COVID, the fact that I work hard to have a strong immune system, the fact that the creators of the vaccines are extremely untrustworthy and given that people are dying from the vaccines themselves - I'm sure an open hearted and open minded person would understand why someone who takes survival seriously would reject the vaccines.

On top of all of this, there are numerous highly qualified people saying that there is a very real risk of the vaccines causing major damage to cardiovascular systems within 3 years. We do not have data on this because the recipients of the vaccines ARE the trial. They ARE the test subjects. This is new technology, untested in the long term - something that people are bizarrely happy to block out entirely when discussing the subject.

I am not convinced from your arguments.

That's ok. The truth does not need to be convincing.

IF we go by the official numbers worldwide the overall chance of dying from covid is about 2% (4.3 million deaths versus 200+ million confirmed cases).

Please review the content of my original post. To be clear, you are citing relative risk and not absolute risk. I am citing absolute risk. The number of 'cases' is wildly inaccurate in any case. The absolute risk is the risk of dying from COVID, using the dubious data, period. This is the actual risk from COVID. If I say, there is a 50% chance you will die from a gunshot wound, you might laugh.. because you know it is not true. If I then say 'oh, I meant that is the risk if you have already been shot in the neck', then you might say 'oh, well you never said that - you just said it was the risk of dying from a gunshot wound, but I haven't been shot'. Using relative risk without being aware of the difference between relative risk and absolute risk is a major problem when interpreting data.

Going by the published data, which is highly questionable in itself for a long list of reasons, we can say an average 2% relative risk. This takes into account the many people who have died without adequate healthcare and without providers knowing how to correctly treat COVID (incorrect ventilator use has killed many people, for example).

On the other hand there have been 4.4 billion doses of different vaccines administered worldwide. If the vaccines were to have a higher risk than the disease itself we would be looking at possibly tens of millions of related deaths. But that is not happening.

Not yet. There is NO long term safety data. Many actions can set in motion processes which take years to manifest damage and fatal outcomes. As stated, there is good reason to suspect that may occur in this case. In addition, vaccines have long been known to be a black hole when it comes to logging adverse reactions. Many, many people (many thousands) had already publicly stated that their doctors refused to accept vaccines had injured them (before COVID19), even in cases where the manufacturer's own documentation makes clear that he symptoms they were exhibiting were entirely possible to come from the vaccine they had just received. This is a major rabbit hole and you cannot understand it without putting in days, weeks or even months of your time to research it.

I have to say that my opinion is colored by my own experience. One close relative died from covid and my mother (who is more than 70 years old) has suffered from the side effects of the disease for months.

That is unfortunate. If this were the case for me I would not lose sight of the fraudulent nature of much of the COVID19 testing (malpractice) and the very real chances that these people's destiny may be a little different to what has been stated. The average age of death of a 'covid case' last time I looked, is the same as the average age of death of people in general - seriously questioning that statistical significance of the mortality involved.

On top of that my wife died from cancer about 10 years ago and she neglected to take here medicine (whithout my knowledge) in favor of taking "natural" medicine and relied on prayer (that did not work). So you can see why I mistrust what I percieve to be anti-science retoric.

I'm sorry to hear about that. My own mother died of chemotherapy several years ago and died knowing that it was chemotherapy that was killing her and not the cancer. She had been terrified by 'Doctors' telling her that she had to take the chemo or die. She had a variety of non toxic alternatives lined up and was planning on trying them.

Reality is that health does not come from putting power outside of ourselves. We need to build internal power on all levels.

So you can see why I mistrust what I percieve to be anti-science retoric.

I refer to you to the quote from the doctor in the image in the OP. Who's science exactly are you trusting? Are you aware that the figures for the benefit from chemotherapy also suffer from the same deceptive marketing practice of using relative benefit as I have already highlighted in the context of COVID's risk? A meta analysis study from the Australian college of radiographers put the ABSOLUTE benefit of chemotherapy at 2% (optimistically) and they recommended that chemotherapy use be stopped immediately. Placebo is around 30% as I understand it, so essentially, they showed that chemotherapy kills more than it helps.

I used the Oxford tool too and my numbers came out to be 1 in 6173 chance of dying from covid and 1 in 785 of hospitalization. Much higher than your results. My risk is probably higher because I suspect that I have an underlying condition but I haven't confirmed it so I did not select the option.

If you didn't select the option then it won't have affected the outcome in the tool. It may be that your age is the reason for them giving you an increased risk.

Wishing you well

0
0
0.000