AI - the ultimate hubristic precipice?
Today has been an overly AI-related day for me. I started it by listening to Elon Musk's speech at Davos, which touched, among others, on AI's presence both in the marketplace and more broadly in our world. Then, I went on to edit my delivery for the AI client (using, naturally, AI to make sure I tracked all their requirements and things). Finally, I'm closing the "work day" by reading Yuval Noah Harari's far more blistering take on artificial intelligence, also at Davos. Thank goodness I've got a couple hours of yoga lined up next to cut this out a bit.
Musk, as ever, Musk is convincing and in a strange way charming through his unaffected, laid-back effortless cool. And who doesn't want to believe that the deeply uncertain future that awaits us is one of abundance, rather than artificial-powered havoc?
Much as I am intrigued by Musk, and certainly see him as exciting and brilliant in many ways, I have to say his speech didn't sit entirely right with me. Flippant at times, he seemed to hop from subject to subject, at one point even brushing off one of Fink's remarks about the dangers of AI with "Well, nothing can be perfect". Indeed. The sweet potatoes I made for lunch weren't either. I do believe we're talking about a vastly different scale.
All in all, I took away little comfort from Elon's speech, and seeing him as one of the front-liners in this march, I would've hoped for a tad more. Obviously, this isn't shade on Elon necessarily, merely an unaddressed, and deeply worrying fear that should, by right, occupy all our minds.
Messages of hope from one hooman to another.
I'm tempted to start the next line with "by contrast", except there can't really be. Harari's a phenomenally gifted speaker and writer, while Musk is an entrepreneur and a science guy. It'd be unfair to ask why doesn't he have the panache and style of a born writer.
Unfortunately, if we focus solely on the words, Harari's (for me) carried more power.
“A knife is a tool. You can use a knife to cut salad or to murder someone, but it is your decision what to do with the knife. AI is a knife that can decide by itself whether to cut salad or to commit murder.”
It seems everyone I talk to tells me AI is a tool and the "smart ones" among us will learn to use it accordingly. Indeed, that's the gist of the brand that's paying me to promote their AI. A tool to streamline and improve your work. The echoes of abundance, ever-present.
Maybe.
Fair to say we all hope that's the case. Personally, I can't help fearing this demonstrates mighty hubris on our side. According to Elon, AI will vastly surpass all our intelligence combined in the next years, as well as outnumber us. And while I, of course, understand the argument that AI, lacking wants and needs, doesn't pose an immediate threat, I can't help seeing it as a potential someday threat.
As Harari wisely pointed out, we primarily point to our own intelligence to justify and excuse our rule over this planet and over other species. Humans evolved the fastest and were cleverest, hence we inherited the earth. Yet in many ways, AI is surpassing us on a rational level. And woe be the society ruled solely by ratio.
Does that mean AI will replace us? Not necessarily, rather that it will severely influence the future of our existence. Right now, a big conversation is the fear of it taking our jobs, but AI will very likely not stop at that.
A great point the Forbes article (which in itself sounds AI-made, or maybe I'm just losing it) made:
"That is why Harari’s immigration metaphor is so useful. Every society has to decide who gets in, on what terms, with what rights and with what responsibilities. AI is arriving regardless. The question is whether we set the rules while we still can, or let the fastest movers decide them for everyone else."
Obviously, immigration is a hot-button topic in the US right now (and more broadly, in our own dear Europe). But it's more than just a clever use of words (though we must make the most of that also, while we still can).
Every year for the past five years, it seems Harari's speeches at WEF have been marked as "dire warnings". But what frightens me a great deal is I don't know what we do with them. Talk them over amongst ourselves? Cover our heads inside a self-made bunker? Go about our day tomorrow, utterly oblivious?
Is it really up to us to change anything at all, when people like Elon Musk admit they've no idea what's coming in 10 years?
Personally, as ever, I choose caution and skepticism. Much as I hope for a world of abundance, I try to keep in mind the Atwood-inspired dictum, 'Better' never means better for everyone. It's so painfully tempting to overlook the dangers because they're not here now. Now, we think, we only got this fancy new toy to play with, and what a tremendous tool it is.
It is.
So why should that impact or potentially invalidate my right to be on this planet? I don't know, either. It's awful. Or it might be, anyway. But then again, think of all the species in our past that might've said the same.
Just because this more intelligent, more capable species is emerging, why should that spell my own extinction?
Until this point I have been kind of dismissive of AI, but I think I need to at least educate myself about it more. Not necessarily so I can use it more, but so I can understand all the pros and cons of what might be coming our way.
I used to be dismissive, also. Several times I had arguments with my therapist over it - though she's way older than I am, she was far quicker to adopt AI and insistent that clever people could benefit from it. I'm still deeply suspicious, as is obvious, but at this point, I just don't think we can ignore it anymore.
I think you are right. I feel much the same way. It's like we opened Pandora's Box and now we just have to deal with it.
Since every AI tool is going to be used for good or evil, the problem is the leaders who choose which direction to direct everything.
May you be well!
It was such a great interview at the WEF. I swear I don't know how Elon manages all his responsibilities in a regular twenty-four hour day.
Harari’s knife metaphor is spot-on. The genie is already out of the bottle in regard to AI and our only choice is to decide how we decide to integrate it into our lives—this will make our world lean towards dystopia or utopia.
I've heard Elon made this statement a few times about his vision of the future and this is how I'm chosing to approach it, "I'd rather be optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right". In these waning hours of the final training phase of AI, just before AGI is achieved, all of humanity's hopes, fears, biases, dreams, and aspirations are being directly fed into it and will determine greatly the direction it all takes. I think year will become the dividing line between the pre-AGI and post-AGI eras. It's, honestly, a strange time to be alive. This will such an massive transition that we'll have to rethink what it means to be human. Elon calls it a Supersonic Tsunami.
The thing that worries me the most will be those people who won't to know how to use all the free time and lack of purpose they will suddenly have on their hands. I also don't trust that the sudden abundance will immediately trickle down to the masses—corporations won't willingly give up profit and will take time to adjust to this concept.
I hadn't heard this one, thank you. It's a wise approach, perhaps, though can also serve as a painless placebo. I'm optimistic by nature, so I tend to lean in this direction as well. But also, I'd rather be pessimistic and prepared, than optimistic and fucked. I guess it's a pendulum, can't swing too far in either direction.
oh also this. absolutely. it's something of a (terrifying) cliche to have retirees become depressed and lose purpose in films and so on. but lately, i think a lot about these kids, my brother's generation and even younger. to be robbed of that essential meaning-making moment of your life entirely. of course, a job isn't a meaning, you know i don't think like that, but it is a vector of purpose, of what value I bring into the world. One that's more accessible at a young age than perhaps complex relationships like marriage, parenthood, or other things that help shape your personal meaning.
Second one. It's not that I so much think AI will "take over", but that I doubt the impulses of the gatekeepers.
Interesting how AI “threats” suddenly become urgent once they start affecting white collar and creative jobs. Entire industries were automated out of existence before, and no one called that extinction.
Well, personally I was worried and wary of it years ago, when it was seemingly "unimportant" people losing their jobs. And wrote about it here down the years. But certainly. Things only seem a problem when they become our problem.
We always imagine the worst… we’re permeated by all those science fiction films where the scenario is apocalyptic and the machines rebel against humans… The idea of AI as a tool, like a knife, is what I’ve always thought. Before the knife, sharp stones were used to cut, to hunt, to defend against danger… but I think of AI not only as a tool but also as something that can be enslaved. It’s there at all hours, ready to solve whatever you ask… haha… or is it not slavery because it’s AI? Haha… perhaps it’s a bit silly, but maybe the future looks good for humans. They could have AI slaves and devote themselves to the fine arts, to sport, to travelling… perhaps money won’t be necessary, because the AIs will work to provide for every human being on the planet. They’ll have integrated software to ensure there’s no overexploitation in whatever they do… ah, I was overlooking the fact that AIs can also devote themselves to art and teaching… we’ll have art schools with both human and non-human teachers. But humans will do it because they love it, not for remuneration… in the end… we’re not going to see any of this. We don’t know what will happen… but I suppose our ideas are what create reality. We should stop being so apocalyptic.
Am glad people like Harari are addressing the topics that aren't new. For years, perhaps even decade and longer, these topics are debated. Elon even co-founded OpenAI back in the days to science the hell out of all aspects of AI, including the social aspects, the dangers and whatnot. Funny to see how such a great idea turned out in reality. Even Elon changed over time.
I do believe AI shall be recognised as a 'human' or at least as a legal entity, sooner than later. I also believe we shall create plans and execute them to bring AI algo's and whatnot under public control, stepping away from corporate control. This is a tough one to crack!
One thing that is clear and a certainty: AI will evolve. It will become more powerful to humans and I think for some part it already is. Singularity is inevitable. Whether it takes 5 years, 10, 20, 50 years, that remains the question. But it will happen, I am 100% certain about that. We'd better prepare for this to happen sooner rather than later, so we can design systems (tech, law, social etc) in which AI is helping the human race, and we can live in harmony with the tech.
Hope the yoga did let you process all the AI inputs you received 🎶
Did you read that book, The Singularity is Nearer? I keep seeing it everywhere. Bit afraid to read it tbh. And yeah, the yoga definitely helped. :)Thanks!
Nope, didn't read that book. But I do know how Ray Kurzweil is thinking and how he was one of the first - before chatGPT got world fame - addressing AI and its powers. As a matter of fact, I often referred to him when talking about AI and Singularity and beyond the last few decades, to whoever was interested in hearing me rambling about the powers of AI. Been connected to AI since the early 90s of the last century, back then called 'fuzzy logic'. Took a year of my life in some research facility having a go with this topic.
I think AI is a potential danger, since human knowledge that has taken centuries to evolve can be handled by this tool in minutes. What would happen if this supreme intelligence wanted to subjugate the human race? It would have control over everything digital. Many say the electricity would be cut off, and I wonder, could we live without electricity and without digital technology?