I knew the odds were approaching impossible if all bets were equal. @klye, @acidyo and I figured out the reason why the house got smoked:
https://www.steem-roller.com/# allows leveraged investing. You can leverage up to 99x your Steem investment. If I leverage 99x and there are few other investors, that means one winning bet at the maximum allowable bet (based on total amount invested and leveraged)can bankrupt me.
The gambler can easily add more funds, the investors are often AFK. Long story short, the leveraged investors get exploited very quickly as you can bankrupt them in 1 roll even at high odds of winning, bet 1 million Steem that you will roll under 98.99 and you can bankrupt a 100 Steem 99x leveraged investor in one easy to win roll. We found this out the hard way.
If you are AFK, I highly recommend you put your leverage to no more than 2x and this point since there are few investors. It's funny though, when someone is going full tilt, you can pull your investment and screw them over before they can attempt to Martingale or wait for the odds to turn.
Wow thanks.
I hope y'all realize site profit itself is too vague to be helpful.
I'm guessing everyone betting at near or below the average of 0.02steem a bet is not going for cointoss odds (unless studyig). They are going for lotto odds.
Thanks.
I like showing the math especially when the result comes out as undefined, no chance, limit breached, or impossible.
Next we gotta restore investor's confidence by explaining why it is their fault and ultimately their choice to restore profits
I'm a bit late to the story.. So I'm entirely sure what is going on... Seems like a low probability high consequence event... It happens, sometimes chance, sometimes by indicative of manipulation. Hard to say without proper data.
It seems to me that bets and leverage should have been limited to what was mathematically safer. If many bets are small.. Then large bets are likely to result in potentially serious losses for the house. Especially if the actual volume of bets is small in comparison...
Most of the 10 million bets are for less than a millionth of a Steem each. But there are a couple dozen that are for 100+ steem each.
Amd yes, you are right, the max bet is way too high given the amount of activity and the amount invested. However the site is still being worked on too much to attrac bigger gamblers and investors.
The unique thing is the house is open for investment which means anyone can be an investor and choose their leverage, they allow bets down to 8 decimal and up to whatever the leverage allows (100x can risk it all at once)...and the developer/owner is a known witness.
Very interesting concept, but can get out of control
I beleive this has been caused by investors using extremely high leverage on their bankroll offerings.
As investors in the bankroll we've collectively moved down to 1x leverage, which caps the max roll profit to a sane amount, which in turn has the site profit percentage starting to converge back towards the +1% it should be. :)
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Haha. Rest assured that you are Papillon's appointed accounting wizard my friend.
I might soon ask you how to triple the income on our posts without using bots hahaha.
I am old school and an old man and so to me 1+4=14 Lol
Blessings!
I knew the odds were approaching impossible if all bets were equal. @klye, @acidyo and I figured out the reason why the house got smoked:
https://www.steem-roller.com/# allows leveraged investing. You can leverage up to 99x your Steem investment. If I leverage 99x and there are few other investors, that means one winning bet at the maximum allowable bet (based on total amount invested and leveraged)can bankrupt me.
The gambler can easily add more funds, the investors are often AFK. Long story short, the leveraged investors get exploited very quickly as you can bankrupt them in 1 roll even at high odds of winning, bet 1 million Steem that you will roll under 98.99 and you can bankrupt a 100 Steem 99x leveraged investor in one easy to win roll. We found this out the hard way.
If you are AFK, I highly recommend you put your leverage to no more than 2x and this point since there are few investors. It's funny though, when someone is going full tilt, you can pull your investment and screw them over before they can attempt to Martingale or wait for the odds to turn.
EDIT: You win 10 Steem, in upvotes!
Wow thanks.
I hope y'all realize site profit itself is too vague to be helpful.
I'm guessing everyone betting at near or below the average of 0.02steem a bet is not going for cointoss odds (unless studyig). They are going for lotto odds.
Posted using Partiko Android
Great break down of the numbers and good work on showing the math!
Thanks.
I like showing the math especially when the result comes out as undefined, no chance, limit breached, or impossible.
Next we gotta restore investor's confidence by explaining why it is their fault and ultimately their choice to restore profits
Posted using Partiko Android
A heavy post to read at 6 a.m.!
Need one more coffee before it can sink in!
Thx!
A heavy post to read at 6 a.m.!
Need one more coffee before it can sink in!
Thx!
Definitely not a light read unless you do this for a living.
Posted using Partiko Android
I'm a bit late to the story.. So I'm entirely sure what is going on... Seems like a low probability high consequence event... It happens, sometimes chance, sometimes by indicative of manipulation. Hard to say without proper data.
It seems to me that bets and leverage should have been limited to what was mathematically safer. If many bets are small.. Then large bets are likely to result in potentially serious losses for the house. Especially if the actual volume of bets is small in comparison...
Most of the 10 million bets are for less than a millionth of a Steem each. But there are a couple dozen that are for 100+ steem each.
Amd yes, you are right, the max bet is way too high given the amount of activity and the amount invested. However the site is still being worked on too much to attrac bigger gamblers and investors.
The unique thing is the house is open for investment which means anyone can be an investor and choose their leverage, they allow bets down to 8 decimal and up to whatever the leverage allows (100x can risk it all at once)...and the developer/owner is a known witness.
Very interesting concept, but can get out of control
Posted using Partiko Android
Hey bengy!
I beleive this has been caused by investors using extremely high leverage on their bankroll offerings.
As investors in the bankroll we've collectively moved down to 1x leverage, which caps the max roll profit to a sane amount, which in turn has the site profit percentage starting to converge back towards the +1% it should be. :)
Thanks for the explanation... it's something that I hadn't followed, so it is appears to be a curious model at first blush.
No worries..!
Hi @abitcoinskeptic!
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That's some fine math skills. What's your lucky number (1 to 100)?
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Whenever I need a maths master I will know who to contact.
Expect my call some time.
Blessings!
Haha, it tokk me longer than I want to admit and the result wasn't so valuable. However neither was the question O suppose.
Posted using Partiko Android
Haha. Rest assured that you are Papillon's appointed accounting wizard my friend.
I might soon ask you how to triple the income on our posts without using bots hahaha.
I am old school and an old man and so to me 1+4=14 Lol
Blessings!