COVID-19: A review of pandemic scenarios

in #future2 years ago (edited)

Historically pandemics have killed millions, devasted societies and changed the course of humanity. Earliest reports of influenza epidemics date back to 412 BC and were recorded by Hippocrates. A number of epidemics were described in the Middle Ages, and one of the earliest recorded pandemics occurred in 1580 (Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission).

The Black Plague killed aprox. 50 percent of the population in Europe during the Middle Ages and the 1918 Influenza killed 20 + million worldwide in less than a year.

COVID-19 is history on repeat

Let's have a look at the history of pandemic scenarios:

2006: The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment - European Commission (PDF)

2007: Talking about a flu pandemic worst-case scenario - CIDRAP

2010: Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development - Rockefeller / GBN (PDF)

2015: Assessment of human influenza pandemic scenarios in Europe - Eurosurveillance

2016: Global Pandemic Megadisaster—Are You Prepared? - AIR

2016: Extreme Scenarios for Pandemic Risk - Gordon Woo / University of London (PDF)

2017: SPARS Pandemic Scenario - John Hopkins (PDF)

2018: The Characteristics of Pandemic Pathogens - John Hopkins (PDF)

2018: Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses? - WHO (PDF)

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