Corona virus, unless we have a third wave, is on its final legs in America. There are at least two states that are stuck in a lower plateau: New York and New Jersey. The statistics I will be discussing are daily new cases-or the daily stepped velocity of the disease.
If not for the plateau, one might be able to say that in the USA Corona might be gone more likely anywhere from mid October to mid January-but we have to accept there will be a residual. In creating this chart, I took the highest high and the first weekly drop as two points. For each point, I estimated two other points: additional highs and lows after the peak-relative to the weekly ups and downs. That may sound confusing with all those peaks, but you'll notice kind of a slanted wavy pattern of weekly highs and lows-likely corresponding to labs taking Sundays and maybe Saturdays off.
I also have to manipulate the John Hopkins data created image as to extend the date range, and obviously you can see I copy and pasted dates to extend the timeline then wrote over them. Where John Hopkins, and myself, added a month I believe means the middle of the month.
Unfortunately, corona doesn't go away so easily. There is again the matter of the plateau. The only two states I noticed with them, obviously I didn't check all, have high population densities. Focusing in on New York, they have a population of 19.45 million, and they also have about 600-900 cases a day. There are 328m people estimated to live in these united states. Although this estimate may be high given New York's high population density, we can expect a national plateau about 16.8675x the New York daily rate. So that places it at 10 118 to 15 177. Another factor besides population density for the actual plateau to be lower would be lower probability of encountering a person with covid19. But caveats aside, adjusting for these expected plateaus it can be expected that Corona's will enter what can be hoped to be its last legs in early October to mid-late December. Do I think there will be 400k dead from covid19 in the USA by year's end as reported by the media? hell no.
There are also many things that could change the curve. Some countries in Europe for example plateaued and now their rates are higher than ever; There could be a deferred 3rd wave due to the back to school season-Corona has an incubation period exceeding 2 weeks; People could let their guard down if they think they are safe; Perhaps it could spread more quickly when people spend more time in their cold dark wintery homes leading it to incubate faster; it could mutate; Something could cause people to rally by the millions, and this election could be the trigger.
The 400k dead by new years estimate is floating in the media, it is more alarming and preposterous than how I first read the headlines; they really meant another 400k Americans would die by new years. See for example https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/09/04/virus-model-us-could-see-400k-dead-by-jan-1/ .
There are about 190k dead so far in 2020 (including the shark deaths, et al the other fishy stuff). There are about 110 days left in 2020. That means to reach 400k, about 1900 people (really 3900 using their 620k figure) in the USA have to die daily of covid19. In the chart below we see the weekend effect more clearly. from the second wave, the spikes seem to be about 900-1500/day, and the dips about 200-500. The second wave peak of 1510+-10 is well below 1900 [and also 3900], so of course we reject their estimates unless there is a 3rd wave. They would need something like a 3rd wave, or possibly they are projecting the effect flu season might bring. Their theory, however, is people will let their guard down [about mask use] by December leading to 3000 deaths a day, and not just 400k dead by january-but 400k+ more dead meaning 620k total. Oh, but 3000 is a day is still less than their 3900/day [as measured today]. But even supposing a maximizing week of all 1500 death peaks and 500 death dips [1214 avg combine], that would still be 700 [or 2700] behind per day-for their model to catch up the more grim the comorbidity death rates would have to be later on. But since a 3000 death/day was their peak daily estimate, and 3900 a day average is required for them to even reach their 620k estimate there really was no sense trying to justify their model.
And what event could cause a 3rd wave. Why Election related protests and riots. In Georgia for example, 3% of the absentee ballots were rejected in 2018. One in every 33 people. Just think of every 1 in 33 activist with clout going on social media complaining with "proof of a conspiracy" like paperwork or a recorded call, and 1 in 33 other people saying the same, followed by the partisan hacks crying foul. If you think BLM and antifa are wild now, just think what will happen if people on both sides think someone stole the presidential election.
The politics of Corona are getting particularly nasty. While Biden was Claiming that shutting down travel from china was racists, and other democrats were saying go to the Chinese new years festival, infowars and others were reporting how deadly it was. Trump likewise knew it was deadly too and admitted as much to Bob Woodward on Feb 7th, but also told Bob Woodward that he downplayed it as to not cause people to panic. Just about every year there is a pandemic scare ranging from sars, to avian flu, to swine flu, to west nile, to zika-we were used to this chicken little syndrome almost year after year. When Trump said he down played the deadliness of corona on Feb 7th, when there was only 11 cases in the USA-and seemingly well contained.
China had reported about 40k infections out of over a billion people as of feb 7th, but few people took china's low numbers seriously-especially as it was reportedly raining crematory ashes of human remains on neighboring countries. Considering China has 4-5 times the population of the United states and their total cases started to plateau at about 80k weeks afterwards; 20-25% of 80k chinese case is 16-20k cases. 16-20k cases that could be projected in America, even with a 100% death rate that was still less than the number of people who die of the flu each years in America. But the death rate was reportedly 5% at the time. So 800-1000 dead could be estimated by the end of February, or an estimate in excess of 400 on Feb 7th 2020. Had China told the truth, we could have made better estimates.
Infowars was warning people, I also suggested stockpiling food just to be safe as early as jan 23, ironically in a piece called america deserves to fail [due to the rise of the virus and congressional focus on impeachment]. https://peakd.com/palnet/@firstamendment/america-deserves-to-fail . Next month began the great Toilet Paper wars, hand sanitizers were sold out, grocery stores cleaned out, the price of flour doubled. Not panicking bought an additional 30-45 days to prepare for a response. At the end of the month, the surgeon general was urging people not to buy masks and to save them for health professionals-specifically saying that masks don't work for the general public. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-n95-face-masks.html
There is a problem about trying to bring up quotes from 6-7 months ago, the context is not fresh in peoples minds. To find the truth, people have to dig back-which most people will not do. Trump not wanting people to panic was the best thing to ensure health care workers had access to PPE equipment and other supplies.
In regards to India.
India may currently be about 1.9 million cases behind the United states but, unlike the United states, the acceleration of the corona virus is still increasing.
Throughout the last week, the United states had a daily count of new cases ranging from about 24k up to 50 k (see very top chart). Let us choose the middle value of 36k cases a day for convenience, though I believe choosing 36k is too high. And in India, it is exceeding 96k cases a day.
India's numbers are still increasing, despite a few noticeable dips,
ignoring the claims that the US rate is decreasing, and that the Indian Rate will continue to increase. Let's instead lock in say 90k for India. The daily differential is 54k a day between India and the United states. At the time of this writing, and last look at the stats, the true difference in US and India cases is 1 876 325. That means it will take about 35 days for India to exceed more corona cases than the USA. I do expect that to happen at least a week, maybe two, sooner.