What can we learn from the COVID-19 statistics in Singapore

in #covid19last year (edited)

Just today, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially named the 2019 novel coronavirus (AKA Wuhan Coronavirus) as COVID-19. According to official reported numbers, the COVID-19 has so far infected over 45,000 people worldwide and killed over 1,100 people.

COVID-19 statistics as of 12 Feb 2020


While the world media is very much focused on China, the epicenter of the virus outbreak, Singapore is potentially becoming the next virus hotspot. Singapore is a popular destination for China tourists. In 2019, there were about 3.6 million visitors from China in 2019 which accounts for approximately 20% of international visitor arrivals in Singapore. It is therefore unsurprising to see Singapore getting hit pretty hard by the COVID-19 outbreak.

Based on statistics announced by the Ministry of Health in Singapore, the number of infected cases in Singapore has increased to 50 as of 12 Feb 2020. Prior to 31st Jan, all of Singapore infected cases were imported from China. On 1 Feb 2020, Singapore officially bars China visitors from entering Singapore. This, in my opinion, is a significant milestone. Given that the COVID-19 has a long incubation period of up to 14 days (new study found that it can be up to 24 days), I have been waiting to see and hoping that there will not be a local transmitted case.

COVID-19 in Singapore


Unfortunately, the first local transmitted case appeared on the 4th of Feb. As of today, 12 Feb 2020, there are a total of 28 local transmissions and 22 imported cases.

50 infection cases of COVID-19 in Singapore


50 cases give us sufficient sample size to do a basic analysis. According to official statements, 15 of the 50 patients were discharged and 8 of them are in critical conditions. It is also known that the symptoms from COVID-19 are typically mild for a week or so, but may subsequently develop into serious complications which affect the lungs. With these information and the assumption that those who are in critical conditions and discharged were part of the reported cases a week ago, let's work backwards a little bit. A week back, Singapore reported 28 cases of infected. Of which 15 were subsequently discharged but among them, 8 developed serious complications and are now in ICU (intensive care unit). Based on that, 53% has recovered but 28.5% has developed serious complications requiring intensive care.

Further to that, since the first locally transmitted cluster, we have seen the total infected cases doubled in a week (from 24 to 50). So far, based on the numbers that I see in Singapore, the COVID-19 is highly contagious and very serious.

There are many who are speculating that China is hiding the real numbers of infected cases and deaths. Singapore being one of the most transparent countries in the world (though I still have doubts), should be able to provide us with some trustworthy data to work on. Given that Singapore also have among the best medical facilities in Asia, can these statistics be used to estimate what could be the actual situation in Wuhan? If so, it is not surprising to understand why there are so many videos circulating on social media showing how the health system in Wuhan is overwhelmed.

With a serious complication rate of potentially 28.5%, that will suggest that China might be needing over 12,000 ICU beds across the country with most of them (9,500 of them) concentrated in the Hubei province. Based on a study, it was found that USA had approximately 95,000 ICU beds in 2015 supporting a total population of 320 million. The Hubei province isn't the most medically/technologically advance place in China, even if the Hubei province has medical facilities that are half as good as the USA in 2015, that will mean that they will only have about 8,500 ICU beds (based on a population of 57 million in Hubei province). This probably explains why there are reports that many people were not given sufficient medical attention over there.

AHA Data on ICU beds


Sometime back I posted an article on how the COVID-19 can affect the stock market and so far I have been wrong. The stock market continues to rise higher each day and making new records. Is the COVID-19 threat not great enough to worry the market? Or am I missing something? As this virus outbreak continues to spread, supply chains will be affected, productivity will take a hit and business travels and tourism will slow. Further details are shared by Erik Townsend in a recent interview with George Gammon.

The economic impact of the virus should not be underestimated. If you practice basic risk management, you should know that it is extremely risky to get into the stock market now. I truly hope that things can get better quickly but based on what I see now, it does not seem that this outbreak will be over soon.

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Hi @culgin

Somehow it affects everyone worldwide.
This can bring bad consequences at all levels, economic, political and especially social.
I hope you do NOT continue to spread this virus worldwide.

The consequences will be terrible,

Which group do you belong to? The must wear mask group or the no need wear mask group?

I used to not wear a mask unless I am sick. But I think I will start to wear one from tomorrow onwards :)

This epidemic is scaring me, its speed and its level of contagion seem high to me. I am concerned that information is being hidden to avoid political criticism or avoid terrorizing markets, but there is already enough fear due to information failures.

I would not want to speculate publicly, but deep inside me I know governments can't be fully transparent

I would recommend Dr. John Campbell

He's quite knowledgeable and sometimes shares some "inside" info that he by experience knows about. Quite nice. Might be boring for people that don't understand much about science, but even then, he's great explaining about it.

Thanks, will certainly check out the video!

When I go to work since the virus outbreak started and boarded the train, there are many people wearing mask but I don't wear mask😎. Upvoted!

Hmm.. you might want to consider wearing a mask 😅

Another question, how trustworthy is the Chinese data? Today we saw an insane jump of 20.000 cases: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Haha.. I won't want to speculate the truthfulness of the Chinese data. However, I think they are limited by the number of available test kits and other healthcare facilities. Hence, the numbers is likely to be under-reported.

Upvoted and resteemed. Solid read @culgin

Hi @culgin

Imagine my shock when I woke in the morning just to learn, that amount of infected people went up from 45k just yesterday to 60k today. I'm completely shocked and worried more than I did just 24h ago.

I hope you will be safe in your location buddy. At least Singapore is more transparent than China and you will not be lied by your own authorities. Or at least not as often.

There are many who are speculating that China is hiding the real numbers of infected cases and deaths.

Hiding cases is one thing. Not being able to recognize infected people (because of lack of testing kits) is also a problem. Plus the fact, that hospials are overcrowded and under-stuffed and many people are apparently being send back home.

Sometime back I posted an article on how the COVID-19 can affect the stock market and so far I have been wrong.

You were only wrong, because more and more fiat is being printed by US and Chinese and EU and pumped into stocks markets. In theory QE and REPO market has little to do with stocks markets, and all those new cheap money have one purpose - to provide more liquidity. However redistribution of those funds sucks. It's obvious that most of it ends up moving into stock markets.
So I believe that we're witnessing fake/artificial demand. Wouldn't you agree?

Yours, Piotr

I am getting pretty concerned with the virus outbreak here in Singapore. Yesterday 9 more cases were announced bringing the total count to 67. It is apparent that community spread has already started but the government is still following the stance of not encouraging citizens to wear masks.

The stock market has simply gone mad. I personally still think that this is unsustainable, but who knows?

What can we learn from the COVID-19 statistics in Singapore

I don't understand well the conclusion. The numbers are scary.

It is unfortunate that an aspect as sensitive as this new disease is used to make politics.
The political characters of the world, those sharks of politics do not lose any opportunity to capitalize.
There is information that China was aware of the appearance of the virus months before its announcement.

The consequences of concealing such important information should lead to consequences and penalties. Especially since the five continents have already been affected.

In this interactive map you can get updated information on the evolution of infection cases worldwide.

Thanks! https://covid19info.live/ is another great site with an interactive map and streaming news

Despite all bad news, at least it gives me a temporary relief that Africa, Central and South Americas aren't touched yet by this monster. I don't know how could Venezuela fight against this disease, if we can't even fight the basic ones.

In my country many people have died recently by asthma and other easy kinds of illness, but in Wuhan they built a big hospital in approximately a week... what a difference.

I see that China is very prepared to this, but even now they struggle and need international help. Now that the virus is spreading how could other less developed country fight it?

Such a nightmare. I hope the best for you and all the people that now have to face it.

Thanks and I am sorry to hear the state of your country's healthcare system. I hope the COVID-19 virus will not reach your country.

Those sick/infected persons statistics is terrifying really. God help us!

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