Schrödinger's Vax

Covid and the vaccine are like Schrodinger's cat. Half the world believes the virus is dangerous and half believe it is not dangerous. Likewise half think the vaccine is safe and effective while the other half think it's dangerous and ineffective. At this point, nothing will change the minds of either group about these facts. They are too invested in their positions.

Covid is not like a normal politically divisive issue—take Donald Trump for instance. Those who were vocal anti-Trumpers leading up to the 2016 election had to double-down during his presidency and reaffirm how terrible he was no matter what he did, even if it meant creating a fake Russian collusion conspiracy hoax to impeach him. And those who supported Trump had to double-down to continue supporting him, even if he failed to deliver on his promises of building a wall, draining the swamp, and ending the wars.

When people choose sides on a political issue, especially when they do so publicly, it is almost impossible to get them to admit a mistake and change their minds. Covid and the vaccines are essentially like the Trump issue but on steroids. In the case of covid, it is not just political opinions or your public reputation that is on the line—your personal health is on the line. It is literally a potential matter of life or death.

In most political issues, the average voter has very little say over what any politician does. Sure, you can vote for or against a politician, but once they are in office, voters have very little control over public policy. Even Trump couldn’t do everything Trump wanted to do.

But covid was different in that the individual did have control. Everyone had the choice of whether or not to get the vaccine (putting aside government mandates or corporate coercion that effectively forced many people to get the vax against their will). Generally speaking, most people had a choice whether to get the vaccine or not. That choice was heavily dependent upon their previous views on the severity of covid-19. So the choice of vaccination did not take much deliberation for most people because they were already either extremely concerned over the virus or they were not very concerned at all.

It was a rare minority of people who actually did deep-dive research on covid-19 and the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine and its potential side effects. Most people in the former group simply saw the doctor-in-chief on TV say the virus was deadly and the vax was safe and effective, so they believed him and that was good enough. For people in the latter group, the mere fact that Fauci and the Democratic Party so desperately wanted everyone to get vaccinated was enough reason for them not to do so.

Then there were those who did the research on how dangerous covid might be to their particular age group and health level, plus the risk factors of the vaccine side effects, and they decided on a personal case-by-case basis whether the vax was or was not worth getting. Most people did not do this individual research, and as a result many on the left who were young and healthy got the vax when they didn’t need to, and many on the right who were old and obese didn’t get the vax when they should have.

At this point, a year after the vaccines, people are firmly set in their groups. Those who got the vaccine have to be all-in on believing that covid-19 was dangerous and the vaccines were necessary, safe, and effective. Whereas those who did not get the vaccine are very unlikely to now realize they were wrong and decide to get it. I'm sure there are many who elected not to get the vaccine, contracted covid and died, so they would wish they had gotten the vaccine. But there are also those who did get the vaccine and died from complications related to side effects and would regret having gotten vaxxed. But for those still alive, there are very little regrets on either side.

It's not just that people want to believe they were right—they need to believe so. To think you made a mistake for your personal health—or worse, your children’s—that could impact your/their future in a negative way is a frightening prospect. People could not live with the torment of being pro-vax then suffering severe side effects—or their children doing so. They have to believe—no matter what happens—that it would have been worse without the vaccine.

But at the same time, those who didn't get the vaccine cannot admit it was a mistake—that the vaccine might have helped them and made their case of covid-19 less severe. The side effects are real, but there are plenty of people who received zero side effects from the vax.

If somebody who is vaxxed gets covid and has severe symptoms, they will say, "Good thing I got vaccinated because it would have been much worse if I hadn’t—maybe I would have died." But those who aren't vaccinated and get covid, no matter how severe it may be (short of death), they will dismiss the effects and say it wasn't that bad, "I didn't need the vaccine." Which may be true—but it might also be true that the vax could have prevented any illness at all. Then again, it might also be true that the vax could have caused side effects worse than covid itself. There remains tremendous uncertainty around both covid and the vaccine, but few on either side are willing to admit that.

People are different, and both the virus and the vaccine affects each individual differently. However, at this point, neither side of the covid debate is really searching for truth, they're just doubling-down. They need to double-down for their own sanity and peace of mind, rather than constantly worrying: Did I make a potentially life-threatening mistake?

I did not get the vaccine, but I did get covid (omicron) at a family Christmas party last December. Two of my cousins there who were unvaxxed also got it, and two other cousins who were vaxxed (and boosted) got it. My two siblings were vaxxed and did not get covid, nor did they suffer any side-effects from the vax (or booster). My siblings, cousins, and I are all around the same age, so we serve as a good case for comparison.

I felt really sick for one day after the party, then felt fine within a couple days (aside from some lingering chest congestion, which finally went away about a month later). My one unvaxxed cousin was likewise fine within a couple days, though his unvaxxed wife had it slightly worse. My vaxxed cousin only had mild symptoms, but his vaxxed (and boosted) girlfriend had the worst case of all: a severe cough that lasted a month.

So what is there to take away from all that? An anti-vaxxer would say, "See it didn't help the person who got vaxxed (and boosted), so the vaccines are ineffective." And my case of covid was not that bad, so there’s no reason to get the vaccine. But my siblings were at the party too, yet they didn't get any covid symptoms at all. So does that mean if I had gotten vaxxed, I could have avoided those couple days of sickness and lingering congestion? Then again, my other cousin (who was not at the party) suffered side-effects from his vaccine that resulted in bed-sickness worse than I got from covid itself. Could that have happened to me as well?

The point is, I don't know what would have happened in a counterfactual past or what will happen in the future—nor does anybody else. Hence I am embracing the uncertainty of Schrodinger's Vax. I think my natural immunity will be at least as good if not better protective going forward, but it's possible I should have gotten the vaccine. I don't know. Though everybody else seems to.