US COVID update (13-04-2020)

in #coronavirus2 years ago


Well, it's Easter, so maybe there is some affect to the reporting.

The data at 12 PM GMT there were 2600 fewer new cases nationwide and 300 fewer deaths.

Of the 25 states with the most cases, only 4 reported more new cases than yesterday. NJ--230, MA--700+, IL <400, CO --20.

NY new cases dropped 500, MI dropped 550 or so (MI reported the possibly lower number of tests performed but didn't know for sure), CA dropped by 100, PA by 350, LA 200, CT 450, TX 700, FL 100, GA 100, VA down <400.

Maybe there were fewer tests Sunday, but the reporting period for all these states are for tests Saturday not Sunday. Guess we'll see more tomorrow. I suspect the numbers are pretty close to the reality.

I don't see how deaths don't get reported on time. Again, only 4 states didn't report a drop in deaths. CT had 14 more, and the others were increase of 2, 3, and 5. It sure looks like deaths have possibly peaked. 1500 new deaths reported nationwide, down 300.

Maybe it's Easter weekend and the reports and tests are different, but the trend lines look basically the same.

I think that even if we get a bump tomorrow the average with still show we're at or near (or even possibly just past) the peak.That would be a similar time frame to Italy. 4-5 weeks from 100 cases to the peak, more or less.

It's not over, but we're under a lot less pressure on the hospital systems. I am attaching an interesting report in the comments. It's pretty short and understandable. It should surprise no one. It uses a different methodology, but I'd call it cluster analysis, where case are grouped by similarity among variables.

Anyway. Be serious. Continue to practice the good health habits I hope you've acquired. Don't be hysterical.