Regarding EUROMOMO and the European coronavirus death statistics

in #coronavirus2 years ago

Regarding EUROMOMO and the European coronavirus death statistics
(I am not a statistics guy, please verify this for yourself or forward to someone who can, thanks)

originally posted by "alexs1320" from minds dot com:

A whirlwind of lies regarding excess mortality. How dishonest people with an over-inflated ego and no knowledge are making fools of the whole world:

  • by not understanding what Gaussian distribution is
  • what White noise is
  • how peaks will affect such data

The result is:

  • hundreds of thousands of imagined excess deaths

Detailed explanation, from A-Z:

  • from the basic math
  • to the analysis of their false graphs
  • and to the scientific paper

Here the video description:

PhD Life Channel
66 Abonnenten

Excess deaths are calculated by using the absurd Z-score.
In order to obtain it:

  • deaths per year must be detrended using linear model (wrong, because that phenomenon is not a linear one)
  • deaths are de-seasoned using splines (wrong, deaths are naturally occurring in peaks, and smooth and peak areas should be analyzed separately)
  • deviation is calculated (absolutely wrong. Fundamentally wrong, because if there are peaks, distribution is not Gaussian, consequently deviation will become brother, not allowing unusually low values to be observed, while overemphasizing peaks)

Final formula:

  • Value at the given week (good. unless there was a holiday, delay, or whatever)
  • minus the expected value, that meaningless base line
  • that divided by meaningless deviation

Prediction:

  • every pattern with peaks will show excess deaths, because the baseline is set too low, for the reasons mentioned

Results:

  • age group 0-14 years of age don't show peaks and shows no excess mortality for the given period, 2017-2020
  • age group with modest peaks 14-45 years of age is showing some low excess mortality
  • 45+ groups, all of them, with peaks, are constantly showing astonishing excess mortalities, year after year, with no pause. We must be living in the Age of Doom

...or, me, and every single mathematically literate person can predict what their abysmal model will create.

When Ego is on PhD level, but the Mind is in the preschool level, and morality is on Toddler level