Crypto Investing Week 25

in #bitcoin2 years ago

Last Week

We did recover a bit, so being short was not ideal, but it also was not too bad.

Prices and Funds

BTC = 8814.67 -> 9097.36
ETH = 228.83 -> 232.43

Starting Funds: 10000

Strategy I: Full $
10256.76 -> 10272.06
Strategy II: Full BTC
9422.87 -> 9725.07
Strategy III: My Analysis
13532.26 -> 13369.06
Strategy IV: My Analysis including Ethereum
11269.81 -> 10942.04


We are now undecided as to what happens next. The analysis prefers to wait one week to see if we go lower or higher.
Please note that this is not financial advice. I am just testing some statistical methods and documenting them here. Everyone has their own situation that prefers more or less risk. Everyone has their own goals. Without knowing these there is no way to find the right investment plan for YOU.

My test strategies for the week are:

Strategy I: Full $ @ 8.07% annual interest
Strategy II: Full BTC @ 0.04% annual interest
Strategy III: My Analysis
Short Bitcoin 1.3% @ 2.58% annual interest
Strategy IV: My Analysis including Ethereum
Long ETH 124.4% @ 0.00% annual interest
Short Bitcoin 143.6% @ 2.58% annual interest


The problem with short term strategies is
at some point, bitcoin is going to make a parabolic move to its next ATH

and then, at some point all the alt coins are going to make a parabolic move too.

So, the most important thing is being in those coins when they make their move. As such, getting out of those coins, even for much gains during a week is very hard for me.

The question is your timescale. Here I present analysis for weekly investments. If we go up I expect there to be enough time to get back in and it does not matter if I miss a few weeks.

But when you invest on monthly scales or larger, then it is a very different story. I actually did an analysis for 2 month investment and that was 80% bitcoin, 20% cash and no ethereum at all.

But most important is to have good risk control. Bitcoin can go up 30% or down 30% in a week. If any of that is a disaster for you then you have too much risk.

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