Crypto Investing

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(Edited)

As you may know I have closed down my AI bitcoin price predictions. Since then I have worked on new statistical methods. These focus less on finding the price direction and more on measuring risk.

It is very hard to beat the market. But it is possible to make good decisions based on risk and reward. And doing this is the key to investment. And this question is important for everyone. Assume there is a net positive lottery. How much of your money should you bet? 100%?
Obviously not. But still people think that if you are convinced something is going up you should long it as hard as possible.

The investment strategy I am testing uses a few simple metrics to predict the price and volatility. Then I find the optimal leverage of the asset based on this. I will start today at 10000$ and compare four cases. First take all dollar that get the interest rate of the compound protocol. Second take all bitcoin, third balance bitcoin and dollar according to my analysis.
Finally I have a slightly more complex analysis that adds ethereum in addition.

Starting point:
Capital = 10000$
BTC = 10400$
ETH =182.88$

Strategy I: Full $ @ 9.77% annual interest
10.000$
Strategy II: Full BTC @ 0.2% annual interest
10.000$
Strategy III: Mixed
62.8% Bitcoin
10.000$
Strategy IV: Ethereum
Short Ethereum - 142% @ 2.23% borrowers fee annually
Long Bitcoin 192% @ 0.2% annually
10.000$

Lets see how I do...



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Hi @frdem3dot0!

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I'm happy that you are posting again. It is a pleasure to follow the things you are up to.

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