Why Australia needs Israel's Missile Defence Systems

in #australialast year

@jackmiller just posted about Australia needing Israeli Missile Defence systems like Iron Dome.


As it turns out, I'd done some analysis on this issue in 2017 when the North Korean dictator was threatening Australia.

Israel's Arrow III is the world's only fully operation exo-atmospheric hypersonic ballistic missile defence system capable of intercepting nuclear missiles in space and defending an entire country from nuclear attack.

It was designed to defend Israel against Iranian nuclear missiles but has a kill vehicle that is steerable in space and is capable of acting as an anti-satellite weapon and thus also of interception of North Korean long range missiles and many types ICBMs.

It would also be effective against China's nuclear missiles (but not Russian or American as they have too many nuclear missiles and some have extremely high reentry velocities which may be beyond Arrow III's capabilities).

This is analysis from public information about Arrow III’s capabilities to defend Australia from nuclear ICBMs launched from North Korea (or China).

Published data says Arrow III has a slant range of 1500 miles (2414km) and intercepts in space (at least 100km altitude).
It has been said to have anti-satellite capability which would mean it can reach a lot higher than 100km (Most satellites orbit at many thousands of km).

To defend the whole of Israel from an easterly threat (Iran) it must have at least a 250km radius defensive footprint.

If one assumes a min 45 degree angle trajectory and the 2414 km slant range as the hypotenuse of a triangle then the maximum protectible footprint on the ground would be a 1706km radius.

However because such a low angle would cause the missile to travel through more atmosphere so the range would be somewhat less.
Given the much larger quoted slant range and cited anti-sat capability I’ve conservatively assumed a 750km radius prime defensive footprint.

If this is the case a single Arrow III battery could defend the whole East Coast (80% of population) and a 2nd battery could defend Perth, Darwin, Alice Springs & Pine Gap (another 10% of population). See map with suggested locations giving coverage. Red lines are ICBM paths from North Korea to major Australian cities/targets. Aqua circles are 750k prime interception radius and Green circles are 1706 km maximum footprint based on slant range.

Arrow III 4 Australia.jpg

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Maybe invest that money in de-escalation?

Are you suggesting Australia should attempt to bribe North Korea not to fire nuclear missiles at it rather than buy a defensive system to protect its citizens agains it?

Appeasement of brutal tyrannies leads to far worse wars.

Or, we could stop accepting the use of violence in pursuit of our political goals.
Rule by force is the disease, who and how are symptoms.
An attack on one is an attack on all.

When someone fires a missile with a large explosive payload at your house (as Hamas did at mine) and the only choice is shoot it down or die, we'll see how long your naive principles last.

Rule by force is unfortunately the brutal reality of the world we live in.
You can't just wish it away. You can only fight to defend yourself or be erased.

I'm with you, defend yourself as you see fit, but the larger narrative is that this boss, or that boss, everybody bows.

What choice does either side have other than violence?

I feel for you being trapped in the middle, but neither side of that war is the good guy.