The Robots Are Coming: Are You Ready?
Things are moving rapidly.
Do you remember 2021? That was 3 years ago. The COVID lockdowns, which seem like yesterday, were four. time certainly does fly.
We are a little more than 4 months into 2024 and the world of robotics is on fire. There is massive progress being made each month, steps which take us closer to a robotic future.
How long do we have to prepare? The above timelines are good estimates.
Image generated by Ideogram
The Robots Are Coming
Manufacturing is about to go into overdrive.
As we near the end of this decade, it is highly probable that robots are in full production. There will be lines churning out millions of these each year. Which companies are involved really does not matter at this point. The key factor is that we are going to see them emerging in a massive way.
Right now we are watching the early development stages. Humanoid robots are advancing, showing progress along with versatility. By the end of the year, it is likely they are in many factories, doing real world work.
Tesla put out a video of the progress the Optimus bot made.
Give it a look:
https://inleo.io/threads/view/taskmaster4450le/re-leothreads-29q7pxq7g
There are a couple of things to take note of here.
The first is the fact the bot was doing actual work that would be done in a factory. While it is slow, this is of no concern. It can be sped up. The key is to get the dexterity right and ensure that it has the task down completely.
Another is the fact that there were a number of bots being "programmed" in one of the scenes. We also see people using mixed reality headsets, also training the system.
All of this leads to exponential progress. Whatever an individual bot learns can be uploaded to all of them.
This is a massively deflationary force that is about to enter different industries.
Bringing AI Into The Physical World
Robots are the bridge between AI and the physical world.
Most of us are aware of the progress being made with LLMs and other forms of AI. These are going to be a massive part of robotics.
In fact, there is a circular loops that is being established.
As the AI gets better, the robots can do more. This is enhanced by then having the robots input real world information, which the models can then be trained on. We further compound the results with more robots.
It doesn't take a math genius to figure out the exponential impact of this.
Of course, we could then add the other layer of many different companies working in this direction.
Unlimited TAM
The total addressable market (TAM) for humanoid robots is basically unlimited. Eventually, if we penetrate space in any significant way, it is likely these will be the first inhabitants of our space "colonies". This could be tied to space manufacturing, setting up camp on the moon, or even asteroid mining (No Bruce Willis up there).
On Earth, this is going to be a massive economic boom. How it all unfolds remains to be seen. What I can state is we are entering the Age of Abundance. As long as the raw materials are available, the robots will generate larger output. The key is we will see this done for less money.
Another factor is the overall costs.
While the robots are going to start out expensive, over time, we will see the costs drift lower. This is going to be due to a number of factors including Wright's Law and competition.
We are looking at another scenario which is slow, slow, and then takes off.
I would not be surprised to see a few million humanoid robots produced in 2026. Depending upon the pricing, the market is already there.
For NOW, the only challenge is to get the software trained while working on the dexterity, balance, and mobility of the bots themselves. We are looking at roughly a dozen companies in the US alone that are working on this. This is something that is likely mirrored in China, Japan and Europe.
They are coming. Are you ready?
What Is Hive
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
It would be very interesting to show that the fact that a robot performs the real work that would be done in a factory, even at home, seems like a movie story, however I believe that soon it will be a great reality, extensive worldwide. From Venezuela I express that this is a great publication. Best of luck.
They are getting closer. We will likely see them in factories and plants long before the home if for no other reason than the ROI is in the business environment.
This is correct at the enterprise level, to lower costs in the workforce. I have heard that in China there are such robots, used at the industrial level, correct me if I am wrong. Success in your publication.
It would be interesting to observe them at work, substituting labor.
The video shows some early progress. It will be sped up over time.
Thank you for your interesting input, that's right, the operability of robots will grow over time.
This is where competition really shows its importance. A lot of companies are trying to one up each other in the robotics race. Some are going for dexterity, some complexity, while others the amount of weight they can carry. I like that you brought up space. One of problems with terraforming other planets are the harsh environments and lack of oxygen. Robots can be used to kickstart them and eventually make those planets livable before humans come. I get reminded of Wall E as an example where AI and robots were supposed to make earth livable so that humanity can come back.
I dont think there is competition. When there is a virtual unlimited TAM, competition doesnt exist. With no scarcity, there is none of that.
We are looking at such a huge market that anyone can produce these will be able to put them into the field.
I guess that makes sense. Although, not all of them will have the same capabilities. Some would be faster, more accurate, can carry heavier things, etc. For each industry, those that excel in a specific field will be more favorable. So in a car factory setup, the robot that can do all the work best, will be the one most companies will be getting.
The field is so wide open that we cannot even begin to think of where it all can go.
I’m imagining a time robots will eventually take over the workforce. Humans are in deep trouble.
Humans are terrible employees. LOL
Robots are good but I imagine it will take over many jobs that humans do, and I don't know maybe there'd be more unemployment. I hope we'd be fine
That is the concern of many. Some believe more jobs will be created as technology progresses.
I do not subscribe to that view but we will see.
yes im ready. ready to have a robot do everything i dont wanna do and they cant complain woohoo
It will be a long while before they do "everything".
However, rolling out in factory settings is likely by the end of the year. That means the start of the next 10 years of these coming off the assembly line.
well what do we find reasonable from the start o.o. mow lawn and clean house
I still think in plants/factories is first. After that, we will see then for commercial use where humans are...dangerous and monotonous activities such as digging holes or cleaning out areas with toxic chemicals.
These are where there is a great need.
hmmm i could see that happening. makes sense cuz those people have the money to pay for it and will save the money longterm
The cost is already there. When people are being paid, it is just switching the cost from labor to robot.
Most do not pay people to clean their homes, hence would be an additional expense.
ya but over time it will be cheaper with the robots. plus robots cant complain or take vacations o.o. they will have them work forever until i guess repair or maintenance.
I guess thats true to not many people pay to clean homes. depends on the cost too if its worth it for the person buying
We are going to see many changes. They will come down in price over time. However, this is where I think the starting point is.
Ok I will wait and see :3 bring down the price plz
This article made me think about how much robots will change the world. It’s incredible to think about where we were just a few years ago compared with now. However, I can’t help but ask myself what kind of ethics come up with it all? What do we do for protection when artificial intelligence is integrated into our reality through physical machines like robots; used responsibly or not? How can worry be relieved over unemployment caused by machines taking over everything that needs to be done by humans; or creates economic inequality due to al large amount of people being put out work because tasks can now be completed with less employees needed thanks mainly too automation.? We need to seriously reflect upon these hard questions while going through this period of change in history. Please continue bringing them up and provoking discussion!
There are a lot of things that are up in the air. We will see how they all unfold.
The one thing I think about is the fact the governments (politicians and bureaucrats) are not going to come up with the answers.
The world of robots is gradually approaching and the truth is we can not actually deny the fact that it is the next big thing to happen