Technology Is Ending Life As We All Know It
Technology is a fascinating subject that few really understand. By this, I do not mean the technical side of things. There are plenty of people who are deeply immersed in that who are a genius level.
That said, simply because they understand their particular field, that does not mean they grasp the full reality of what is taking place. In fact, very few spend their time charting this.
For those who do track the pace of technology, and the change it brings, this is a lot of pushback. Even on here, there are many who take exception to what I post. They believe that these proclamations are impossible.
There are a few issues that I see as common.
The first is that we, as humans, think in a linear manner. We are not conditioned to think exponentially. When we are dealing with technology, especially that which is digital, exponential is the standard rate of progress.
Another is the idea of convergence. What asked what is the most powerful technology, it is always the same answer: convergence. When this occurs, the exponential ends up being exponential.
Probably the best example of this is the smartphone. Here we see the convergence of computing, mobile, and the Internet. Each made progress of a number of decades. In 2008, they were brought together by Apple.
This was so powerful that, within 7 years, more than 70% of the United States had a smartphone. To compare, it took 60 years for the telephone to penetrate that same percentage of the U.S.
The Keys
The key to technological progress boils down to a number of factors. This is what will drive mass adoption. As these characteristics are revealed, it starts to accelerate the adoption.
What are these characteristics? They are as follows:
- cheaper
- faster
- safer
- improved
Looking at this, can you see why Blockbuster Video did not stand a chance against streaming. Notice how many of these are hit.
While the selection was originally limited, i.e. not improved, it was faster. Also, because of the subscription model, for most it was cheaper than renting 4 videos per month. Eventually, as the selection expanded and telecommunication networks got faster, the service was rivaled that of a DVD.
It was game over before it even started.
This is how disruption occurs. When these characteristics start to be realized, the market instantly moves towards the disruption. That means the incumbents are usually left out in the cold.
Take commercial real estate. The idea of remote work is taking over. There is some resistance by some employers. Like Blockbuster, this is a losing battle. Why is this?
Simply put, it is an improved system for the workers, one that is less expensive for them, with enormous time savings. The media would have you believe this is something that is a passing fad by mentioning people such as Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk, two in-the-office proponents.
While this can work on an individual company basis if that entity offers desired employment, across the board, it will fail.
We are approaching 4 years since the COVID lockdowns. In spite of that, look at the commercial real estate occupancy rates.
Many believe this will eventually resolve itself and we will return to "normal". I would say this is the new normal. It is not some hiccup. We witnessed a paradigm shift in employment. We are never going to see occupancy rates at the levels they were. A lot of commercial real estate is going to plummet in value, resulting in massive defaults, as this trend persists.
The lockdowns might have accelerated the process yet the technologicalshift was already in place.
Many companies are also realizing the cost savings. They are able to downsize their real estate footprint.
What does this chart tell you?
AI Going To Crush Jobs
It is easy to see the damage that technological disruption can cause.
How many people would have believed a prediction in 2019 of occupancy rates in 2023 being half of what they were? It is likely most would have said that was insane. Yet, the chart clearly shows this is exactly where we are at.
Keep this in mind when we discuss the idea of artificial intelligence crushing jobs. As I stated in the past, this is going to hit those fields where safety is not an issue, it is knowledge work, and the industry is unregulated. Healthcare? That is going to take a while. Same with education. Writing scripts for plays or films? Good luck on that.
Of course, this is a global situation. Technology is not exclusive to any one area. Chatbots work the same for someone on a smartphone in Brazil as one using a laptop in New York City. This extends to many technologies.
We already see platforms such as YouTube trying to figure out how to deal with AI. The reality is that content creation will be completely disrupted in the next few years. By the end of 2025, if things keep progressing like they are, we are going to see feature length films written and produced by AI. They still might lack the quality of the studio productions but it will be good enough for most people. After all, social video is really taking over.
This has some talking about UBI (or universal basic services) as the solution. Here is where I differ from many. While I do not doubt governments will try to remain relevant by pursuing this option, the solution, to me, is more in line with stakeholder capitalism. This is what we see forming with the early stages of Web3.
As stated on many occasions, I think the future is one where income capital is replaced with staking capital. Of course, based upon many forecasts, this might happen sooner than most believe.
The next 3-5 years will start to reveal how a lot of this will unfold. Some could notice things in 2024 although the real impact will be evident in the 2025-2027 timeframe.
Trillions of dollars in GDP globally is going to be shifted around. This is something that most are unprepared for.
Life as we know it is going to be ending. Those who were around pre-Internet know the before and after picture. We are embarking upon another period like this. Unfortunately, whereas the last one was a 15 year transition, this will be more compressed.
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
Honestly speaking, my DVD player is just a piece of metal occupying my shelf. I should have disposed it but I don't want the space to be empty.
we need to keep up with tech advances
I agree. Thinking exponentially is the most important aspect of business vision in our age.
I think it's good that governments will lose relevance during this transition to a different life. This makes it a great opportunity to create better systems for ourselves, especially knowing that this change is global and anyone can participate in it.
Governments will lose relevance yet governance is still needed. This is something we need to experiment with.
Right. I think blockchain technology can help with that and will play a key role towards creating workable governance models.
With the widening income gap, the world will need UBI to offset the income lost by new technology. I just don't see any other way the common person can keep up with all the gains made from technology funneling into the hands of the elite without a UBI system.