Technological Disruption: The Change Before Our Eyes

So many things are happening at one time. It is amazing to watch all of this coming to a head.

Technology is moving at a rapid pace, especially in relation to disruption. Industries are being transformed before our eyes. It is incredible to watch the change.

One of the things about technology is that development happens at a steady pace. The progress, over the last century and a half is consistent. What is not is the impact upon society. That seems to go in 20 year cycles.

The 1980s were the last start to major technological disruption. As I wrote on a number of occasions, things such as in-home gaming, the VCR, cable, the personal computer, digital camera, and Internet all changed the way people worked and place. Heck, even the photocopier was a rarity in an office in 1980 yet a standard by 2000.

Since we are embarking upon another era like that, it is best to know what to look for.

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Disruption Is Like A Wrecking Ball

The next 20 years are going to be like a wrecking ball going through a condemned building. To further the analogy, the ball is technology and the building is different industries. Incumbents are the ones who are in the firing line.

To be clear, it does not matter how big these entities are. They are primed for collapse.

When the Internet started to get popular, it took out some of the largest shopping malls and retailers in the world. This was one of the few example of the last 20 years that we can find. Another is streaming, i.e. Netflix, crushing Blockbuster and the video rental industry.

Those days are over. Now, this is going to be commonplace.

Technology is to the point where global impact can be felt within days. Look at the excitement around ChatGPT when the latest version was released. Within a week there were hundreds of millions of users. That is how quickly things can move.

Unfortunately for most, there is no isolation to the focus. The tentacles are everywhere. That means anything that is passe is about to be obliterated. If there is an opening, technology will fill it.

The wrecking ball is swinging and a lot is in the way.

Some Industries Being Disrupted

Over the last year, I have covered some of what is taking place. Nevertheless, it is always helpful to go through some things that are happening.

One that I discuss a lot is the automotive industry. EVs and direct-to-consumer are changing everything. This is going to put a lot of car dealerships out of business while also upending many of the legacy manufacturers. We are going to see household names entering bankruptcy.

Television is also under attack. Cord cutters started more than a decade ago and is only accelerating. This is putting enormous pressure on traditional broadcast channels. The quest for attention (eyeballs) is getting more competitive.

Technology is allowing for not only a change in distribution but also content creation. Artificial intelligence will factor into this in a big way.

Medicine is also likely to see a major shift in the next 20 years. Technology is helping with drug discovery. Bio-tech and genetics are racing ahead. Enhanced computation also showed its potential with protein folding a few years ago.

Much of this will go parabolic if we get some basic quantum computing capabilities.

Construction is going to look far different in a decade. Technologies such as 3-D printing are going to have an impact. Today, they are in an embriotic state. That will not be the case in a decade.

The same is true for the material sciences. What about 4-D printing? That is something being worked on. We are seeing the ability to program matter which will alter how things are made, shipped, and put together.

Finally, there is the entire financial system. FinTech has done a number on this already. Cryptocurrency and blockchain is going to put this on steroids. We are going to see the entire system revamped over the next two decades to the point where it will not be noticeable as compared to what we have now.

Life with a few billion people excluded from the financial system will not be possible in a decade. All will have access similar to how information has flowed due to the Internet.

These are just a few of the major industries facing disruption.

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